What’s going on with the four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Is this series proving Gobert is in fact as overrated as some say, or is it simply a bad matchup?
Through two games, the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves sit a draw – both securing one victory a piece.
So far, one of the bigger storylines has been the presence – or lack thereof – of four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert.
Despite being the team’s highest-paid player, Gobert is only fourth on the team in total minutes, with only a couple more minutes played than non-starters Naz Reid and Nickeil-Alexander Walker.
Ironically enough, a year ago this time we examined how Gobert was dispelling all the playoff narratives that have been crafted about him in the past. As recently as a few weeks ago, we even highlighted him as one of the main reasons why we are in a Golden Age of great defenders.
So, what is it? Is Gobert really one of the pre-eminent defenders in the sport? Or will this first-round series prove he’s been overrated all along?
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For all the Naruto fans out there, the great Itachi Uchiha once said that “Every jutsu has its weakness.”
First off, I apologize if that reference doesn’t immediately register with you. But the point is that basketball is no different. Every player has a weakness.
For Gobert, a titanic gatekeeper who denies drivers entry into the paint like few that have ever come before him, his weakness is teams that can space the floor and keep him away from his sacred space.
Outside of the 18 minutes Jaxson Hayes has been on the floor, the Lakers have spent a majority of this series without a traditional center (81.3% of the time). Most of the time, all five of the players in the lineup are legitimate threats from downtown. This means that Gobert hardly has the opportunity to camp out in the paint and do what he does best.
Along with this, Gobert has a more specific Kryptonite in Luka Doncic. Last postseason, Doncic torched Gobert with his arsenal of hesitations and changes of speed – a package that gives fits to almost everyone in the league.
To counter this, the Timberwolves have tried to have Doncic’s defender chase around screens when Gobert’s man is the one setting them. However, it is hard to consistently pull this off, and on the occasions where Doncic’s original defender can’t stay attached, it forces Gobert to late switch onto the Slovenian Wunderkind.
This puts Gobert in a situation he physically isn’t equipped to handle (to be fair, how many centers could?), which leads to outcomes like this:
According to NBA.com, Gobert has guarded Doncic for 16.2 possessions, and in that time, Doncic’s Lakers have scored 28 points. That’s 1.73 points per possession, which is the equivalent of sending a 86.4% free throw shooter to the line for 16 possessions.
Despite this, the Timberwolves defense is still quite good when Gobert is on the floor. So, if Gobert’s defense isn’t truly a hindrance to Minnesota in the grand scheme of things, why is he nearly nine minutes less per game (24.5 MPG) than he was in the regular season (33.2 MPG)?
The Problem Has Always Been Offense
The reason that small ball isn’t the preferred mode of combat for every team is because a lot of teams have a traditional center who can make them pay for it with their size and interior scoring on the offensive side of the floor.
Gobert has always struggled to do this. While Gobert owns the third-best defensive DRIP in the entire league this season, he’s a negative on the offensive side of the ball (minus-0.4).
Against the Lakers, Gobert is averaging just 4.0 points on 45.7% true shooting.
With Gobert on the floor, the Lakers can afford to not play a center and switch all screening actions because they know that Gobert can’t hunt mismatches/create offensive rebounds (he’s only averaging 1.0 per game) enough to really penalize them.
So, the Timberwolves choose to lean more heavily on Reid because he can both space the floor (giving them their own 5-out look) and capitalize on mismatches, like he does to Austin Reaves in this play:
The Bottom Line
The Timberwolves are viewed so highly by our NBA projection model (they currently have the fourth-best odds of winning the title) because they boast a deep and versatile roster that is equipped to handle a variety of roster constructions.
For this particular series, against a team whose best players play a position other than center, it makes more sense for the Timberwolves to leverage their flexibility and prioritize smaller lineups featuring a 4/5 combination of Reid and Julius Randle.
This doesn’t mean that Gobert is a bad player. It also doesn’t mean that Gobert is some sort of poser who thrives in the regular season and turns into a pumpkin when the playoffs rolls around.
If the Timberwolves advance, regardless of who wins between the Houston Rockets/Golden State Warriors, his importance to their success will increase exponentially as both teams boast non-shooting centers (Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams) as key parts of their rotation.
So, no, Gobert is no fraud. He’s a player with strengths and weaknesses – just like everyone else that has come before him and long after he’s gone.
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Minnesota’s Missing Star: What in the World is Going on With Rudy Gobert? Opta Analyst.
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