By SwimSwam Contributors on SwimSwam
Courtesy: Doug Cornish, the founder of Swimpler. Follow Swimpler on Substack here.
This is Volume 3 of How the Elite Race the 200 FR:
Click HERE for Volume 1 Click HERE for Volume 2 Click HERE to access the 2015-2025 NCAA A-Final 200 FR Data SetNew tabs now available in the data set:
Men Sub 1:30 Luke Hobson 17-21 Luke Hobson Sub 1:30 Women Sub 1:40If I have misspelled a name or made a mistake, please message me with the details I need to correct it. As you can see, there is a lot of data here. I will welcome any chance to improve it.
THE SUB-1:30 CLASS
You can view all the splits and split differentials of the sub-1:30 class on Men Sub 1:30 tab in the excel spreadsheet linked above.
The Sub-1:30 class consists of 15 swims. Blake Pieroni became the founding member at the 2018 NCAA Men’s Championships, leading off the 800 FR relay. While his breakthrough may have been overshadowed by the historic 2018 meet, it quietly opened the door to a new performance frontier. Others hurried through that door, launching the greatest all-out assault on high-level performance within one event that I have witnessed.
Since then, seven other men have broken the 1:30 barrier a total of 14 more times:
7 times leading off the 800 FR-Relay 5 Times in NCAA A-Finals 2 Times in NCAA Prelims (both Luke Hobson)Luke Hobson holds seven of the 15 sub-1:30 spots.
Kieran Smith did it twice, leading off the SEC and NCAA 800 FR-Relays in 2021.
How did we go from 1:32 winning the race in 2015 to 15 sub-1:30 swims since 2018?
Easy money says they are going out harder. And I believed that – until yesterday.
Only one of the 15 sub-1:30 swims started with a 50 split over 21 seconds — Luke Hobson’s 21.04 at the 2025 NCAA Prelims.
Going out 20-point is FAST, but going out sub-21 doesn’t mean that swimmers are going out harder than their counterparts have in the past.
The average speed of the first 50 of the 200 is improving at the same rate as the average speed of both the 50 FR and the 100 FR at NCAA. During the 2015-2025 time period:
the average A-Final 50 FR time has improved from 19.20 to 18.40 – 4.2%. the average A-Final 100 FR time has gone from 42.22 to 40.55 – 4.0% the average 1st 50 split of the 200 FR has gone from 21.67 to 20.75 – 4.3%Although sub-1:30 swimmers are going out faster, they’re not pushing the pace beyond what’s expected given the overall rise in sprint speed. In fact, they’re not the only ones going out sub-21. Since 2016, a swimmer has gone out under 21 a total of 19 times at NCAAs without breaking 1:30, and those numbers don’t include relay lead-offs. Meanwhile, there are only two times in which the swimmer who posted the fastest 1st 50 won the race at NCAAs – both Townley Haas (2016, 2018).
The best 200 FR swimmers are regulating their first-50 speed.
Though derived from an extremely small data set, one statistic in my data supports the claim that the athletes are going out harder, the best-first 50 ratio. The sub-1:30 group have a best-first split ratio of 1.54. However, only 6 of those swimmers competed in the 50 at conferences or champs of the same season. This gives us a narrow window from which to observe how fast swimmers are going out relative to their top speed.
The better explanation for the sub-1:30 effort is that they are “building” the second 50 harder and “attacking” a little more on the third 50.
Ten of the 15 sub-1:30 swims have occurred since 2023. From 2023-2025, the first-second 50 differentials were 1.99, 2.10, and 2.08 respectively. The average first-second 50 differential of the sub-1:30 group is 1.79.
Luke Hobson’s data-adjusted first-second 50 is even faster.
LUKE HOBSON: A CASE STUDY
There are two tabs on the excel spreadsheet that contain Luke Hobson race splits and split differentials: Luke Hobson 14-21 includes the fastest swim from ages 14-17 that exists in SWIMS for which I can find splits in addition to every race in SWIMS from age 18-21. Luke Hobson Sub 1:30 shows all of his sub-1:30 swims.
LUKE VS LEON
Worst-First is a ratio that gives us information about where and how much the swimmer faded. It is useful when assessing outcomes and evaluating race strategy.
Using the worst-first ratio, the two biggest split fades of the entire sub-1:30 group were demonstrated by Leon Marchand and Luke Hobson in the same race.
First night of 2024 NCAAs. Leon and Luke had both competed in the 200 M-R, Leon contributing a 22.59 BR split for ASU and Luke contributing an 18.82 anchor for Texas. Now they were side-by-side, leading off the 800 FR-R, Texas in lane 3, ASU in lane 4. Both swimmers were managing a big moment: two NCAA Records on the line (200 FR and 800 FR-R) and an NCAA Championship.
BIG moment!
Luke flipped first at the 50 – 20.28. Leon was right there with him – 20.36. Luke’s last 50 was 24.16: worst-first of 3.88. Leon’s last 50 was 23.63: worst-first of 3.27.
So what caused such a steep drop-off in two of the most well-conditioned swimmers in the world?
They got caught up in the moment, went out really fast, and bonked.
LUKE’S LESSON
Let’s compare the 20.28 to Luke’s other sub-1:30 efforts. That race against Leon was his second time breaking 1:30. The first time he broke 1:30, he went out in 20.99 leading off the same relay in 2023. He has broken 1:30 five times since: here are the first 50s from those races.
It’s clear that Luke learned from that 2024 relay lead-off, exercising more control in his first 50. A year later leading off the 800 Fr-R his opening 50 was 20.88, a full .5 seconds slower than the year prior. He went on to post an insane 22.67, 22.68, and 22.67 on his last three splits – worst-first of 1.79, best in the entire sub-1:30 class. Luke’s 5 subsequent sub-1:30 swims contain the only 2 worst-first ratios under 2 seconds. I believe that is by design, not chance.
When you remove the 2024 relay swim from the data, Luke’s split differentials look like this:
Second 50=1.59 slower than first. Third 50=.27 seconds slower than second. Fourth 50=.42 seconds slower than third. Worst-First=2.28The NCAA 200 FR swimmers are an eclectic crew. There are mid-distance swimmers ranging down and sprinters ranging up. Luke doesn’t fit in either category. Having competed in the 100, 200, 500, and 1650 FR at Junior Nationals when he was 15, he has had range for a long time. That’s an important distinction when comparing how he sets up this race, and it highlights the need to acknowledge that the averages in the data don’t account for significant individual differences in the swimmers.
KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR COACHES AND SWIMMERS
Elite swimmers die in the 200 FR.
Normalize the fact that these races are difficult. When you die, it’s ok. Learn from it, make positive changes, and move forward with better potential in your future swims.
Elite swimmers get caught up in the moment.
Swimmers, parents, and coaches. This is what we live for: to see these kids master the moment, not just their technique, strategy, and training. Despite sacrifice and rigorous preparation, the swimmers are not perfect. Expect them to get caught up in the moment now and then.
The best to ever do it still make mistakes.
The best swimmers train for years on end and still make mistakes on the big stage. Go further than normalizing mistakes. Make them a foundational unit of success.
Controlling the first 50 is the key that unlocks your mastery of the event. Luke Hobson’s trek through the sub-1:30 world shows us that even the best to ever do it need to control that first 50.
The best scrutinize the details more than the rest. At big meets, there is a video room. Does that room exist for the swimmers to compare notes on how many yards they’ve done – or is it for them to review footage of their technique and execution?
I’ve had far too many swimmers and parents ask when will we stop working on technique and train. Or, when will my swimmer know how to swim this race.
The best constantly tweak, analyze, and refine. They tinker more than the rest. When hundredths of a second can separate you from your competitor, you look under every rock and mine every piece of data for that .01.
The biggest takeaway for swimmers, parents, and coaches is to realize that the road to success is like that local road that everyone complains about – always under construction.
Next in the series I will tackle data trends, gender differences, and the incoming women’s assault on sub-1:40.
CREDIT FOR THE EDIT:
Reader Casey Hnatiuk pointed out that Blake Pieroni was the first swimmer under 1:30. Thank you, Casey!Read the full story on SwimSwam: How The Elite Race The SCY 200 Free Volume 3: The Sub-1:30s, Hobson Case Study & Key Takeaways
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