May’s local elections have the potential to make MPs, councillors and activists fear that it might not be so long before they are back again. Despite the Government delaying some elections because of devolution changes, 23 councils, six mayoralties and one by-election are up for grabs.
Much has been made of the fact next month’s vote could be bad news for Kemi Badenoch. The Tories have been out in full damage limitation mode, trying to manage expectations with talk of losses of hundreds of seats. Yet it could also be rather uncomfortable for the governing party. “We’re expecting Reform to be the big winner,” says a senior party figure. ‘”That will put pressure on both Keir and Kemi but hopefully the fact it is two leaders having problems means it will be blunted.”
There’s also a frustration from the centre that Parliament is filled with hundreds of newbie Labour MPs yet some are refusing to play ball when it comes to getting out and campaigning.
The hope is Labour will have enough success in some of the votes such as the west of England that there will be some kind of success story to sell. But when it comes to the mayoralties, there is a concern that Reform could clean up.
Already Labour aides are planning the lines to take – expect to hear about how it is normal for a party to experience mid-term blues and not too much should be read into local elections where voters tend to vote on local factors. These are the type of lines the Tories used back when they were in government and fearing a brush with the electorate.
Over the past few months Starmer has enacted a string of policies that don’t exactly thrill the base: higher defence spending at the expense of cutting foreign aid, welfare cuts and civil service efficiency savings. It may allow No 10 to show they are calling the shots but it doesn’t speak to core Labour values.
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That becomes a bigger political problem when the policies don’t seem to be succeeding in winning over the voters they are intended at. “If we’re doing Reform-lite policies, we shouldn’t be losing to Reform,” says a Labour figure. Already some in Government are starting to ask whether Starmer needs to pay more attention to keeping the left flank of the Labour voter coalition on side.
But if Reform have their dream night come 1 May, Starmer will be left dealing with a more divided party. There will be those with Reform already second in their seat fearing for their future. But more problematic for the current strategy will be the already unhappy Labour MPs arguing that it shows a move to the right doesn’t work – and it’s time for the party to go back to its roots. There are already ministers around the cabinet table whispering just this.
Katy Balls is the political editor at The Spectator
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