China, which views democratically-governed Taiwan as its own territory, regularly holds exercises around the island, including one begun on Tuesday it said was to “serve as a stern warning and powerful deterrent against Taiwanese independence”.
Beijing’s pretext could include “special occasions” such as diplomatic events or incidents related to Taiwan's sovereignty, Hsieh Ching-chin, the deputy head of its Coast Guard Administration, told a small group of reporters.
Apart from the May anniversary, these included October, around the time of Taiwan's national day when Lai gives a keynote speech, and August, when China ends a routine annual ban on fishing, ostensibly to protect fish stocks, Hsieh said.
A separate source, a senior Taiwan security official, said the assessments were based on past experiences and Chinese actions, adding China this year could seek “excuses” to hype up its “grey zone” pressure on Taiwan on those sensitive dates.
“On one hand they want to exert extreme pressures on Taiwan but on the other hand they must be extremely careful not being labelled as an aggressor internationally.”
In case of war, the coast guard would be pressed into service and ships armed to help defend against a Chinese attack.
China also claims the Pratas, as it does most of the busy waterway, and its coast guard ships have entered the atoll's restricted waters several times this year, denounced by Taiwan as “coercive harassment.”
Outlining a new response strategy, Hsieh said the coast guard will evaluate the Philippines “transparency” policy to give details on China’s actions to draw greater international attention.
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