A chalky first weekend finally provided some drama in Round 2, with outstanding games between Houston and Gonzaga, Florida and UConn, and BYU and Wisconsin joining Derik Queen’s controversial buzzer beater to lift Maryland past Colorado State on Sunday night as the best 4 games of the NCAA Tournament to date.
The good news about a chalky opening weekend though is it gives way to colossal showdowns in the Sweet 16. With all 4 No. 1 seeds advancing and without a single team seeded worse than a 10-seed advancing to the Sweet 16, this weekend’s slate is as good as we’ve had in this round in many years. Plus, with Arkansas making a run as a 10-seed, BYU making its first trip to the Sweet 16 since Jimmer Fredette and the Cougars stole hearts in 2011 and Ole Miss making the second weekend for just the second time in its 116-year basketball history, there’s still a feel of Cinderella to this tournament even without a mid-major wearing the slipper.
The action begins on Thursday with East and West Regional semifinals in Newark and San Francisco.
Here are 4 matchups — 1 per game — that will define Thursday’s Sweet 16 contests.
East Regional
Here are the key matchups for the 2 East Regional games in Newark:
(6) BYU vs. (2) Alabama (7:09 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Matchup: Grant Nelson vs. BYU’s undersized frontcourt, including Egor Demin
Grant Nelson looked healthy in Alabama’s wins over Robert Morris and Saint Mary’s last weekend, which is as good a place as any to start with the Crimson Tide, who will play in the Sweet 16 for the fourth time under head coach Nate Oats. Nelson is Alabama’s best rebounder and despite shooting just 27% from beyond the arc, he makes enough 3s to help Alabama space the floor beautifully when available. In a game between 2 of the top 10 offenses in the country, per KenPom, Nelson is a potential mismatch problem for BYU. Will Kevin Young play freshman guard and future pro Egor Demin at the 4 more, giving him a player with height and length who can keep Nelson from getting to the basket and attacking closeouts? Will Nelson get possessions on Richie Saunders, who plays an undersized 3 at 6-4. BYU will try to slow the pace against an Alabama team that is deeper and ranks 1st in America in adjusted tempo. That will make halfcourt possessions vital, and Nelson is the one mismatch it will be hard for BYU to answer.
(1) Duke vs. (4) Arizona (9:39 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Matchup: Arizona’s Caleb Love vs. Duke’s Tyrese Proctor
Duke killer and Mike Krzyzewski career-ender Caleb Love gets one last shot at the Blue Devils on Thursday night in Newark. Love scored just 8 points on 3-13 shooting in a November loss to Duke this season, suffocated by Tyrese Proctor, one of the best perimeter defenders in college basketball. Love has to be great for Arizona to win. He’s coming off a 29-point outburst in the Round of 32 where Arizona beat Oregon, the fourth time in Love’s storied career when he’s scored 20 or more in the NCAA Tournament. The most famous of those games was Love’s 28-point masterpiece in North Carolina’s win over Duke in the 2022 Final Four, the final game of Krzyzewsk’s coaching career. Proctor is 3-1 against Love, limiting the UNC/Arizona star to just 11 points per game on 14-50 on 28% shooting in the 4 meetings, all of which involved Proctor as Love’s primary defender. If Proctor wins this matchup again, Duke will cruise to the Elite 8.
West Regional
Here are the key matchups for the 2 West Regional games in San Francisco
(1) Florida vs. (4) Maryland (7:39 p.m. ET, TBS)
The Matchup: Florida’s Alex Condon vs. Maryland’s Derik Queen
Condon struggled to guard in space against Danny Hurley’s UConn, who attacked him repeatedly in switches against smaller UConn wings. Maryland doesn’t really have wings — they play more like Florida, with 2 traditional bigs and 3 guards. What Maryland does have is one of the nation’s best frontcourt players in Derik Queen, a one-and-done lottery pick who just sent the Terrapins to their first Sweet 16 since 2016 with his buzzer-beater drive to nip Colorado State 72-71 in Seattle on Sunday night. Condon has answered the bell in games against elite frontcourts most this season, including a 17-point, 10-rebound, 4-assist maestro performance in Florida’s 90-81 win over Johni Broome and Auburn in “the Jungle” in February. The Gators have great frontcourt depth and the better guards, but Maryland’s frontcourt of Queen and Julian Reese will challenge Florida on Thursday night. Queen is the key to the Crab 5’s elite efficiency as a unit — it’s his scoring that opens space for Maryland’s outside sharpshooters, who bury open 3s at a prolific rate (48% on uncontested 3s this season) as defenses collapse to help on Queen, whose ability to face up defenders or back them down draws comparisons to a young Nikola Jokić. If Condon isn’t his best on Thursday night, Florida will go home.
(3) Texas Tech vs. (10) Arkansas (10:09 p.m. ET, TBS)
The Matchup: Texas Tech’s JT Toppin vs. Arkansas wing Adou Thiero
Toppin was on SDS’s First-Team All-American ballot after averaging 18 points and 9 rebounds a game on his way to Big 12 Player of the Year honors. He was the difference in Texas Tech’s second round win over Drake, scoring 25 points on a ruthlessly efficient 11-for-13 from the field and adding 12 rebounds in one of the opening weekend’s signature performances. Adou Thiero is available for Arkansas after missing a month with a knee injury. How healthy will he be? Arkansas needs Thiero’s length and athleticism to have an answer for Toppin, who is the best driver and contact drawer for a Red Raiders offense that ranks 5th in America in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency. If Thiero is limited, there’s no other logical matchup for Arkansas where the Hogs don’t give up size and physicality or speed.
SDS Predicted Thursday Winners: Alabama, Duke, Maryland, Texas Tech
March Madness 2025: 4 matchups that will define Thursday’s Sweet 16 games Saturday Down South.
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