Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caught Europe off guard, and fears about the strength of NATO surged further after US President Donald Trump upended the transatlantic alliance, saying Europe must take care of its own security.
“The Russian military today is larger and better than on February 24, 2022. The Russians have hostile intent against the Baltic states and the EU’s eastern flank,“ said Alexandr Burilkov, a researcher at the Institute of Political Science (IPW) at Heidelberg University.
“Conscription would have to play a role in any such large numbers of new troops,“ he said.
But many countries, including France and Britain, have struggled with recruiting and retaining troops. Reintroducing some form of national service -- compulsory or voluntary -- might be even more difficult.
But studies also show that many Europeans are not prepared to defend their countries on the battlefield.
“As long as there is no invasion of the territory, accepting the political costs of imposing sanctions on those who do not comply with the call-up seems unthinkable.”
After the Cold War, most European countries ended compulsory conscription. Just nine countries -- Greece, Cyprus, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Norway and Turkey -- never suspended it.
But mindful of political and economic costs, most of NATO’s five biggest European spenders -- France, Germany, the UK, Italy and Poland -- are not planning to make participation in armed forces mandatory.
Germany’s likely future chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has said he favours the reintroduction of a compulsory year in which young people could perform either military or community service.
“We’re not considering conscription, but, of course, we’ve announced a major increase in defence expenditure,“ said Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden.
In comments to reporters published Saturday, he said France no longer had the “logistics” to re-introduce compulsory service, but he wanted to “look at ways to mobilise civilians” and would be making an announcement in the coming weeks.
In Italy, Defence Minister Guido Crosetto has ruled out reintroducing national service but spoken in favour of a reserve force.
Researchers say Western European politicians should learn from Nordic and Baltic countries, particularly Finland and Sweden.
“The east-west divide is still a problem. Few people in western Europe are willing to fight,“ said Burilkov. Convincing Europeans to volunteer would require advocacy campaigns, he said.
Goya said Europeans had been suddenly struck by their vulnerability.
“The American sea is receding, and many European countries are saying to themselves that yes, in the end, they are a little bit exposed.”
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