Real Sociedad will look to secure a first ever home win over Manchester United when they meet in the first leg of their Europa League last-16 tie at the Reale Arena on Thursday. Look ahead to the game with our Real Sociedad vs Man Utd prediction and preview.
Real Sociedad vs Man Utd Stats: The Key Insights
Real Sociedad are 43.8% favourites to win with the Opta supercomputer, while Manchester United are given a 29.4% chance of victory. Man Utd have won three and only lost one of their previous six competitive matches with Real Sociedad. The Spanish side are looking to reach the quarter-final of a major European competition for the first time since 1988-89.Real Sociedad had what must have felt like the worst possible preparation for their match with Manchester United.
In their previous game, at Barcelona on Sunday, centre-back Aritz Elustondo was sent off after just 17 minutes, they had just 23.6% possession, took no shots while conceding 33 to their opponents, and lost 4-0.
Not that United had much more fun last weekend. They were knocked out of the FA Cup in front of their own fans by Fulham, losing 4-3 on penalties following a 1-1 draw at Old Trafford.
Ruben Amorim will be grateful to return to UEFA Europa League action, as it is the one competition in which United have thrived this season. They were the only unbeaten side in the league phase, finishing third with a record of five wins and three draws from their eight games.
This is in contrast to Sociedad, whose three defeats included a 2-1 loss to Anderlecht at home. The La Liga side had to negotiate the play-off round, beating Midtjylland in both legs to secure a 7-3 aggregate victory.
If they progress to the quarter-finals (where either FCSB or Lyon will be waiting), Imanol Alguacil’s side will achieve something which the club has failed to do for 36 years. Real Sociedad failed to progress from any of their previous four last 16 ties in major European competition since they knocked German side FC Köln out of the UEFA Cup back in 1988-89.
They will welcome United without several players. Álvaro Odriozola, Jon Pacheco, Luka Sucic and Arsen Zakharyan all missed the Barcelona match.
United are in a much worse position regarding injuries, as their treatment room currently houses nine of Amorim’s squad. The likes of Amad Diallo, Lisandro Martínez and Luke Shaw are among those who will be missed in Spain.
The visiting team do at least have history on their side. Real Sociedad have won just one of their previous six European encounters against Manchester United (D2 L3), with the Brais Méndez penalty which secured the only win – at Old Trafford in September 2022 – their only goal against them.
Sociedad’s only other competitive encounters with English opposition occurred way back in 1975 when they faced Liverpool. As Bob Paisley’s men won 3-1 in Spain, it means Real Sociedad have never beaten a team from England on home soil.
It also does not bode well for them that United have generally prospered in their country. Granted, they lost their last visit, a 3-0 defeat at Sevilla in the second leg of the 2022-23 Europa League quarter-final. But United were unbeaten in seven trips to Spain prior to that game.
They have also dominated matches in this competition to an extent they can only dream of in the 2024-25 Premier League.
Man Utd are averaging 18.8 shots per game in the Europa League this season, the most of any side still in the competition and their best ratio in a European season on record (since 2003-04). That is 5.7 more than they have posted on average in a league match this term.
United also have the highest average sequence time (12.9 seconds), passes per sequence (4.5) and possession (61.2%) in this competition. With Sociedad’s figure for the latter 52.5%, the visitors might dominate the ball.
Amorim has experience of facing Sociedad, albeit only in a friendly. They met in the summer of 2023, with his Sporting CP side winning 3-0. Whether that counts for anything here is debatable, but the United boss has at least got the better of Alguacil once before.
Real Sociedad vs Man Utd Head-to-Head
The entire head-to-head history between Real Sociedad and Manchester United has occurred within the previous 12 years. Goals have generally been thin on the ground.
The exception occurred in Spain in 2021. A United side led by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer won 4-0 thanks to two goals from Bruno Fernandes and one each from Marcus Rashford and Dan James.
There was no more than one goal in any of the other five meetings, with the set including a pair of goalless draws. However, both clubs are among the six who have scored in all of their Europa League matches this season.
Sociedad’s sole victory occurred in the group stage of this competition at Old Trafford in 2022. United then won the return meeting 1-0, with Alejandro Garnacho bagging the winner in the most recent clash between these clubs.
Real Sociedad vs Man Utd Prediction
Despite United enjoying a much better time of it in the group stage of the competition, the Opta supercomputer’s prediction has Real Sociedad as the likelier winners at the Reale Arena on Thursday.
The home side are given a 43.8% chance of taking a lead to Manchester next week. The visitors’ hopes of a win are rated at 29.4%, with a draw occurring in 26.8% of the simulations.
As Sociedad have been poor on the road in 2024-25, losing five of their last six away matches, they will be desperate to start the second leg with a scoreboard advantage.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off in Spain on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Real Sociedad vs Man Utd Prediction Opta Analyst.
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