Single family sales -10.5%Months of supply at 9 vs 8 priorPrices +3.7% y/y to $446,300
All regions except the west saw large drops in new home sales. Home builders were downcast in the most-recent earnings calls.
Gasoline +369K vs -849K expDistillates +3908K vs -1488K exp
President Donald Trump held a press conference after his cabinet meeting and after an awkward commentary from Elon Musk wearing his "TECH SUPPORT" t-shirt, the President outlined his economic and trade priorities, emphasizing a commitment to balancing the U.S. budget within a relatively short timeframe—potentially within the next one to two years. He reiterated his stance on tariffs, postponing those on Canada and Mexico until April 2, despite previously stating they would proceed in early March. Trump also signaled upcoming 25% tariffs on European autos and other goods, warning that the EU may attempt retaliation. While asserting that the U.S. does not need Canadian lumber, he suggested that many tariffs would remain in place, though not all.
A notable immigration policy announcement involved selling a "Gold Card" for $5 million to attract top-tier workers, a plan Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested could generate up to $1 trillion if 200,000 cards were sold. Trump also underscored the need to double U.S. energy capacity and announced a partnership with Ukraine on rare earth minerals, though he clarified that the U.S. would not provide security guarantees to Ukraine—leaving that responsibility to Europe, a stance that could disappoint President Zelenskiy.
US yields moved lower today with the 10-year yield moving to the lowest level since December 11. The low yield reached 4.245%. Recall that the high yield back on January 13 reached 4.805%.
The US treasury completed its coupon auctions for the week by successfully selling seven-year notes at 4.194%. That was -0.9 basis points below the WI level at the time of the auction. All three auctions this week, had a negative tail indicative of strong demand. For the 7 year, the domestic buyers were the more aggressive. For the two and 5-year notes auctioned earlier this week.
EURUSD: The EURUSD solidified a ceiling between 1.0527 and 1.0532 (three separate highs going back to end of January). The high price today reached 1.0528 before rotating back to the downside. Going into the close, the price is trading between its 200-hour moving average of 1.0472 and its 100 hour moving average 1.0486. Moving outside of those moving averages will shift the bias in the direction of the break.
USDJPY: The USDJPY traded above and below its 50% midpoint September 2024 low at 149.22 for the fourth day in a row. The current prices trading at 149.10 tilting the short-term bias to the downside (below the 50% midpoint level. The 100 hour moving average is higher at 149.552 and will be another upside target that would need to be broken and stay broken, to give the buyers some confidence for more upside probing. Today the price tried to extend above that level but failed. On the downside, the low price from December 2024, came in at 148.64. Getting and staying below that level increases the bearish bias.
For other key technical levels and analysis click here: www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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