Canadian election polls take a big turn as Mark Carney surges ...Middle East

Then three big things happened:

Trudeau resignedMark Carney ran for leadershipTrump threatened Canadian sovereignty

The other problem is that Poilevre wasn't hard enough on Trump and took a soft line. That wasn't what Canadians wanted to hear when they were blind-sided by Trump's talk of annexation.

I still think that Conservatives win a majority as Trump's attacks cool and Conservatives re-focus on domestic problems but it's much more uncertain than I thought. If polls continue in this direction and Liberals win, I expect a negative reaction in the loonie. That said, Carney is still a decided shift to the right from Trudeau and isn't someone that markets would be fearful of.

As for the timing of an election: Carney is riding high and he promised to call an election immediately if he wins the leadership race on March 9.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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