Well, that’s that. Alex Bregman is not joining the Cubs and is instead reuniting with his former Astros coach and current Red Sox Manager, Alex Cora, in Boston. And while I’m not particularly surprised by his choice of team – Boston has long been in the running for Alex Bregman (as well as other third basemen) – I am a little shocked at the deal.
Alex Bregman to the Red Sox
As we had hoped might work for the Cubs, Alex Bregman is, indeed, signing a short-term deal with opt-outs after each of the first two years. But according to Chandler Rome (The Athletic), that deal comes with a staggering $40M average annual value.
Yep, it’s a three-year, $120M deal with two opt-outs.
That’s a little unexpected. I did not think he was going to get that sort of AAV, even on a short-term deal, especially not with the two immediate opt-outs and attached to draft pick compensation. And frankly, I am not upset at the Cubs for not beating that.
As a reminder, Alex Bregman turned down a six-year, $156M offer from the Astros earlier in the offseason. And although he doesn’t quite get all the way back up to the total guarantee, he did shave off a lot of years (improving the AAV dramatically) while giving himself a chance to go back out to free agency next winter detached from the draft pick compensation that weighed him down all offseason.
USA TODAY NETWORKQuick league impact: The Red Sox have some infield crowding to accommodate, we’ll see who ends up where between Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, and Alex Bregman. And that’s probably that for the Cardinals’ very determined and public efforts to trade Nolan Arenado this winter. Can’t say I hate how awkward that must be.
As for the Cubs, I’m not so sure. This obviously keeps the path clear for Matt Shaw to take third base and run with it from Day 1, but it’s also possible the Cubs really do look to add someone like Justin Turner. Or maybe they’ll go out and get David Robertson now to really beef up the pen.
Frankly, they can probably do both (though I doubt it). As of today, the Cubs CBT payroll sits at roughly $209 million per Roster Resource. That’s $32 million short of where Tom Ricketts has indicated it might end up at the end of the season (the first threshold of the luxury tax). Even accounting for keeping some powder dry for the trade deadline, that’s a lot of available budget. I sure hope they don’t let it go to waste.
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