Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 14 Jan: PPI final demand lower than expectations.CPI next. ...Middle East

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NASDAQ index down for the fifth consecutive dayCrude oil snaps its three day run to the upsideFeds' WIlliams: Housing affordability main concern in Fed NY districtMicrosoft pauses hiring in US consulting unit as part of cost cutting planCBS: Israel and Hamas have agreed In principle to a cease-fire dealUS Federal budget deficit for December $-87.0 billion vs. expected $-75.0 billionWSJ: Pres Trump is looking to enact pro-fossil fuel executive ordersEuropean major indices close mostly higher. US stocks are now lowerMore Fed's Schmid: Regarding tariffs, the Fed will act if there is disruptions to mandatesFed Schmid repeats comments from Jan 9. Second verse same as the firstFrench Bayrou: Absolutely vital to reform the pension systemUK Chancellor Reeves: UK remains committed to fiscal rules at all times. GBPUSD still downGeopolitics: Israel/Hamas cease-fire could be struck as soon as Tuesday or WednesdayReuters poll: US 10 year yield is likely to surpass 5% mark in 2025US PPI final demand for December 0.2% versus 0.3% estimate. YoY 3.3 % vs 3.4% estKickstart the FX trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSDForexlive European FX news wrap: Awaiting the US PPI reportAre there more reasons for the market's decline?

So although better than expected, it is not a "...happy days are here again" scenario.

CPI MoM is expected to show a 0.3% gain vs 0.3% last month. CPI YoY is expected to come in at 2.9% up from 2.7% last month. Core CPI MoM is expected to rise by 0.2% vs 0.3% last month. Core CPI YoY is expected at 3.3%, unchanged vs last month.

Again, it is not a "...Green grass and high tides forever" scenario.

Fed's Goolsbee might be more dovish, and although there may be speculation that data like the PPI points to a taming of inflation, the YoYo data is still above and below 3% - not 2%. That will keep the Fed on hold.

Empire manufacturing index January is expected at 3.0% versus 0.20% last month. Canada manufacturing sales are expected at 0.5% versus 2.1% last month and Canada wholesale trade is expected to be down -0.7% versus 1.0% last month.

The weekly inventory data for oil will also be released with expected to show a drawdown of -0.992M barrels, while gasoline is expected to show a build of 2.034M and distilates are expected to also show a build of 0.785M.

Ahead of the US session, the UK CPI will also be an influence with:

CPI MoM est 0.4% and YoY est 2.6% vs 2.6% last monthCPI Core MoM est 0.5% and YoY Core est. 3.4% vs 3.5%

The EURUSD moved up 0.60% on the day and has now strung 2- up days in a row. Technically, the price got a boost after rising back above the falling 100-hour MA at 1.0258. That break took the price to the 200-hour MA at 1.0300 and as head to the close for the day, the price is ticking above that MA as well (at 1.0306). If the momentum can continue, the 38.2% of the move down from December comes in at 1.0349. There is a swing area just ahead of that target between 1.0322 to 1.0343.

The USDJPY continued to wander up and down in sloppy, non-trend trading. The price of the pair is above the 100 hour MA at 157.469, the 200 hoiur MA at 157.75 and the 100 hour MA at 157.94. If the price can stay above that cluser of MA, the bias is tilted to the upside.

A look at other instruments as the day comes to an end:

Crude oil snapped its 3-day run to the upsde. It is trading down $0.71 or -0.90% at $78Gold bounced higher by $15 or 0.57% to $2677Bitcoin also gained with a rise of $1800 to $96,348

In the US debt market, yields are marginally lower as the market reacted modestly to the lower PPI after the recent run higher. WIth the 10 year within about 20 basis points of 5%, many see that as a ceiling area given the rate expectations.

2-year 4.368%, -3.3 basis points5-year 4.597%,, -2.0 basis points10 year 4.792%, -1.3 basis points30 year 4.976%, -1.0 basis points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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