In the months since Labour and the Conservatives racked up their lowest ever combined share of the vote at a general election, the two-party dominance of British politics has actually weakened further.
The polls tell a story which is a fair reflection of an undecided nation. There’s widespread dissatisfaction with a Government which is battling to define itself; voters remain unsure about the new Opposition Leader, while the right is grievously split; and voters of all shades in most places are more willing to switch allegiances, more willing to experiment with small parties and independents, and less willing to define themselves by a tribal party identity.
This pendulum will continue to swing – that’s why it’s a mistake to say “Labour rebuilt the Red Wall” in 2024. They won back many of those seats and some of those voters, but the embedded regional strongholds they once had are gone for good, replaced by battlegrounds.
Add in the fact that the dynamics vary a lot from area to area, between different types of seat, and within numerous groups within those seats, and trying to call the next election becomes a brain-addling puzzle.
In December, an MRP analysis by More in Common found that Labour is currently on course to lose its majority. Just as notable – perhaps more so – was the sheer closeness of the election that it portrayed. More in Common’s director, Luke Tryl, noted at the time that “271 seats would be won by a party getting under a third of the vote. 221 seats have a lead of less than 5 per cent, 87 are within 2 per cent”.
There are already constituencies like this. In Dudley, in the West Midlands, last July Labour won the seat with 34.1 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 28.8 per cent, with Reform not far behind on 26.4 per cent.
Being boring won Labour an election - it won't help them now
Read MoreElectorally, the country at large is becoming more like Dudley. We are so used to focusing on the binary question of a lead in the polls, that this story is under-appreciated. Particularly at this point in the electoral cycle, years away from a general election, it matters far less that one party is three up or down, and far more that hundreds of seats seem to be turning into three-way marginals.
More importantly, from the Government’s perspective, to which, if any, of these problems is the answer: be dutiful and loyal to the Prime Minister? Perhaps constituents who are tempted by small parties or independents want to see a rebellious streak to reassure them. Few of your 2024 voters will be getting in touch to say “stay the course” or “support the unpopular decisions” – but plenty will be clamouring for you to waver, be it on farming, or taxes, or immigration.
In a Britain where hundreds of seats become close marginals, many contested three ways, constituents increasingly hold more power to pressurise MPs than the Prime Minister or his whips do. Things will start to get really turbulent.
Mark Wallace is chief executive of Total Politics Group
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