NHS data shows flu cases have continued to soar, with more than 5,000 patients in hospital with the virus on Sunday 29 December, up from 4,102 in hospital on Christmas Day.
But with new flu infections continuing to rise, their are concerns hospital admissions this winter could even equal that high of two years ago.
So why is this year’s flu outbreak so much worse than it was last year?
As ever, with winter virus infections, there are a number of factors at play and it is difficult to be precise about the impact of each.
Britain’s collective immunity to flu is lower this year because flu cases last year were quite low.
But that low level of cases last year, in turn, reduced our collective immunity – leaving us more vulnerable this year, scientists say.
“So 2022-23 was really bad, probably because of very little flu in 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons. Then last year was not so bad so going into this winter population immunity will have been lower than a year ago.”
“Population immunity to the current circulating variant will be pretty low and that I suspect is the reason for this year’s increase. The big question now is when will cases peak and whether the peak will be greater than we saw in 2022-23. I won’t be making any bets,” he said.
The importance of flu vaccinations is not so much to do with reducing the overall number of infections but rather in cutting the risk of serious illness and hospital admissions when people do get infected.
“Vaccinations will have some impact but probably not a huge amount as most people are not actually offered flu vaccine. Even in vaccinated people infection is quite common as the vaccine is only about 50 per cent effective. But it’s main role is to reduce disease severity in people who are still infected,” Professor Hunter said.
The symptoms of a common flu
Flu symptoms come on very quickly and can include:
a sudden high temperature an aching body feeling tired or exhausted a dry cough a sore throat a headache difficulty sleeping loss of appetite diarrhoea or tummy pain feeling sick and being sickHowever, because the dominant strain this year (H1N1) is one that has been less common in recent years (which have been dominated by H3N2) the vaccine is assumed to be slightly less effective this year.
Lindsay Broadbent, Lecturer in Virology, University of Surrey, added: “There are many strains of influenza and each year the vaccine is designed to target the strains that are most likely to be circulating.
Simon Williams, a behavioural scientist and public health expert at Swansea University, told The i Paper that people seem less concerned about viruses this year – which is a key reason while jabs are down.
“Many have gone back to thinking that flu is relatively harmless, but for some it can be serious or deadly,” he said.
So what has the vaccine uptake been?
In all pregnant women uptake was 33.1 per cent (versus 30.3 per cent a year earlier) and 73 per cent in all those aged over 65 years (versus 76.7 per cent a year ago)
For primary school-aged children (aged 4 to 10 years), national vaccine uptake was 49.1 per cent this year, compared to 48.1 per cent at this point last year.
A UKHSA spokesperson says: “We understand how busy healthcare workers are at this time of year and coping with winter illnesses adds increased pressure.
“This is why we are urging all staff to get vaccinated and protect themselves, their patients and their families from these illnesses.”
How to get a flu jab and who is eligible for a free vaccine
You can no longer book a flu vaccination at a pharmacy using NHS online service.
But free flu vaccines are still being offered for those people who are eligible at this link until March 31st.
If you’re not eligible, you can get a flu vaccine privately, from the same pharmacists, with charges typically varying from around £10 to £20 depending on the pharmacy.
Who is eligible for a free flu vaccine:
-If you’re aged 65 or over (including those who will be 65 by 31 March 2025)-have certain health conditions-are pregnant-live in a care home for older adults-Other care home residents, carers and people who live with someone who has a weakened immune system can get the flu vaccine.
Children aged 2 or 3 years and school-aged children (Reception to Year 11) can get the children’s flu vaccine.
Frontline health and social care workers can also get flu vaccines.
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