Khaled al-Jeratli | Ali Darwish
Syrians want to move to the next step after the overthrow of the Assad regime on December 8, and amid aspirations to quickly move beyond this phase and begin development and reconstruction, the features of the transitional phase remain unclear politically and administratively.
The armed movement led by Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) has decided to form a caretaker government to manage this stage for three months. This is the same Salvation Government that was administering Idlib province in northwestern Syria, where the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has been at the forefront of military operations against the regime since November 27, has been in control.
International and regional parties are monitoring the scene and assessing the new government’s moves along with the military command, as Washington has outlined its conditions for recognizing the new government in Syria, while European countries have presented their vision for political transition, whereas most Arab countries have supported the change in Syria.
Enab Baladi discusses in this lengthy report the scenarios for the transitional phase that Syria is going through, both internally and externally, with experts and researchers presenting their expectations regarding what is anticipated in the foreseeable future.
Caretaker or transitional government? Eyes on “2254”No signs have emerged of the involvement of other local parties in the caretaker government, some of which were partners with Tahrir al-Sham during military operations, such as the Syrian National Army (the military wing of the Syrian Interim Government), while others remain independent but demand to be included in the future political process, such as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). This may explain that the current government is only a management body and not a transitional government.
Dima Moussa, the deputy president of the opposition’s Syrian National Coalition, stated in an interview with Enab Baladi that the current phase is managed by the Salvation Government, while the Interim Government continues to manage parts of eastern and northern Aleppo, the same areas it had been governing in past years.
She added that there is no direct coordination between the Salvation and Interim government (the executive arm of the coalition) today, but there is cooperation through active individuals and members among the parties.
According to Moussa, the upcoming phase is the transitional government that should be participatory, which the Syrian local community, which recently freed itself from the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad, is waiting for.
Moussa noted that the overthrow of the Syrian regime was not the goal, but rather an obstacle in building Syria, which is a crucial phase that the Syrians have now surpassed; they are, however, waiting for the next steps.
She pointed out that the political scene is moving toward starting the implementation of UN resolution “2254,” which stipulates the formation of a transitional government lasting 18 months, during which a Syrian-Syrian dialogue would take place.
A man holding the flag of the Syrian revolution stands among thousands of Syrians celebrating the fall of the regime in Damascus – December 13, 2024 (Enab Baladi/Dayan Junpaz)
Absent political parties
The Military Operations Administration assigned Mohammed al-Bashir (the head of the Salvation Government) on December 10 to form a caretaker government until March 1, 2025, without providing clarifications on the next steps.
Former Syrian diplomat Danny al-Baaj believes that the current government is not a transitional government but rather a government taking over authority from the ousted regime; it is now a “hybrid” government between the regime and the Salvation Government, even though its early days were referred to as a “transitional government” before the term was unified again to become a caretaker government.
A transitional government cannot be formed in this way, according to al-Baaj. He stated to Enab Baladi that a transitional government requires extensive consultations and political parties, and needs to represent all Syrian components militarily, politically, as well as civil society components.
He noted that the political transition has not yet started, and it cannot be considered that the transitional process has begun without broad participation and a participatory process in selecting transitional governance bodies widely, which also includes civil society.
The current government is not a transitional government; it is a government taking over authority from the regime. It is a hybrid government between the regime and the Salvation Government. A transitional government cannot be formed in this way. It needs broad consultations and political parties, and needs all components to be represented – militarily, politically, and at the level of civil society as well.
Danny al-Baaj, Former Syrian diplomat
What about UN resolution “2254”
The work of the caretaker government will conclude in March 2025, to move to arrangements to start the transitional phase and the political transition process, which is a lengthy process that will exceed 18 months, as the UN resolution “2254” stipulated that it would last for 18 months and extend to two years, until a new constitution is established and elections are held.
Al-Baaj noted that it is necessary to abandon the reconstitution of the UN’s Syrian Constitutional Committee as it is currently “inactive,” formed under the influence of various parties; thus, a new Syrian constitutional committee should be formed.
The old version of the constitutional committee includes 50 members chosen by the former regime, 50 chosen by the opposition, and 50 chosen by the UN from representatives of civil society and experts, aiming to reach a consensus constitution among all Syrian parties.
The committee did not find its way toward light as the regime and Russia continued to obstruct its work. Its last session was held in mid-2022, and calls to resume have continued until last November, without success.
Resolution “2254” oversees a peaceful transition of power as a general international decision, which has not yet been implemented. Some believe that negotiations under this decision ended with the fall of the regime, but this belief is incorrect, according to al-Baaj.
The former Syrian diplomat believes that international resolutions, including the Geneva statement, do not mention Bashar al-Assad by name but refer to the Syrian government. After the Military Operations Administration entered Damascus, it met with the government, thus representing the ousted regime concerning the provisions of “2254.” According to the current applicable Syrian constitution, in the absence of the head of state, the presidency of the government continues the work of the state.
The political responsibility ultimately rests on the two main recognized opposing bodies: the Syrian Negotiation Commission and the Syrian National Coalition, according to al-Baaj. If they do not move this week, they risk removing themselves from the equation.
Regarding the Negotiation Commission, al-Baaj thinks that it should broaden itself to include the Syrian government (the regime’s government) alongside it to become the nucleus of a national conference. As a second step, all members of the Negotiation Commission should meet in a general assembly to demand representation from the current Syrian government or, at least, create an expanded consultative mechanism that begins to outline the transitional phase.
Al-Baaj highlighted the importance of inviting other non-participating parties to engage, providing ample space and a significant share for civil society.
As for the National Coalition, it represents opposition parties, and opposition political parties, including the Coalition, should directly engage in the political process, or its president should announce his engagement and move to Damascus to start working from there to prepare for the national conference in coordination with the Negotiation Commission.
Al-Baaj criticized the National Coalition for remaining passive in the face of ongoing developments, asking, “Is the Coalition waiting for solutions from the UN envoy, Geir Pedersen?”
He considered the lack of effectiveness and a clear plan for the Coalition to be a “concerning and shameful” indicator after 14 years of continued opposition activity.
On the military side, al-Baaj believes that all factions can consult and hold meetings among themselves, which should continue this dialogue, leading to the correct rebuilding of the Syrian army, representing defected officers in this army, especially since military bodies are the most familiar with the regime and its structure.
Meeting of the ministers in the Syrian Salvation Government to determine the procedures for taking over institutions – December 10, 2024 (Salvation Government)
Military coordinationAlong with the formation of the upcoming government and its roles in the political transition, many military issues remain open, especially concerning military formations that had not previously joined Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which is at the forefront in the battle of “Deterrence of Aggression.” Notable among these are factions in the south and rural Damascus, along with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria.
Tahrir al-Sham has experience in ending many factions that do not align with it, but this was done within limited geographical areas, not at the level of Syria as a whole.
On December 11, leaders from the Southern Operations Room met with the Military Operations Administration to coordinate military and civilian efforts under the new government, aiming to put an end to disturbances and provide basic services to citizens, as announced in a statement from the Southern Operations Room.
... Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Syria: Transition under international observation )
Also on site :