BofA: USD tracking 2016 playbook post-2024 election, with scope for additional upside ...Middle East

BofA notes that the USD’s post-election appreciation in 2024 resembles the 2016 reaction, with similar DXY gains of around 2.8% against G10 currencies, albeit with stronger alignment to rate differentials this time. In 2016, the USD showed a greater excess premium over rate differentials, but today’s movements reflect shifts in relative growth and policy expectations. Upcoming trade policy clarity could add to USD strength if tariffs exceed expectations.Key Points:Comparative USD Appreciation: USD gains post-2024 election mirror 2016’s, with a similar DXY move (~2.8%). However, rate differentials explain more of the current USD strength compared to 2016’s excess premium.Rate Differential Imp

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