Recent evaluations by scientists regarding asteroid 2024 YR4 have shifted the focus from a potential Earth impact to a possible collision with the Moon. Initially, this asteroid was predicted to have a 2.3% chance of striking Earth in 2032; however, new calculations indicate that there is now only a slim 0.3% probability of it impacting the Moon . This alteration in trajectory understanding necessitates further scrutiny, as the implications of such an event could be significant for both lunar and terrestrial environments.
As of this writing, it now has a 2.3% chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032. While you might think this resembles the plot of Don't Look Up, none of this is too unusual.
You can see this in the image above, which indicates potential trajectory points. The 2.3% odds aren't simply the chances of a die roll. What it means is that when astronomers run 1,000 orbital simulations based on the data we have, 23 of them impact Earth.
The most probable trajectory currently estimates that it will have a close approach of 240,000 km from Earth, which is within the orbit of the Moon but not dangerously close.
The elongated shape of the orbit takes the asteroid around the sun and into Earth's vicinity before it ventures far out between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter.
Because of the unusual orbit, the asteroid will disappear starting in April until 2028, according to NASA.
The uncertainty surrounding this space rock is still prominent as astronomers race to find out as much as they can about the asteroid before they lose sight of it.
"We don't want to take any chances," he said.
The asteroid measures between 130 feet and 330 feet in diameter and large enough to potentially cause localized damage were it to strike a populated city, according to NASA.
In light of these developments, it is evident that while asteroid 2024 YR4 may not directly threaten Earth at present, its potential interaction with the Moon underscores broader concerns regarding space objects' impacts on planetary bodies. As we continue to advance our observational technologies and methodologies, understanding these risks becomes increasingly important in safeguarding both our planet and its natural satellite from unforeseen cosmic events .
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