The greenback is up the most vs the GBP with a gain of 0.60% (the GBPUSD is moving lower). The dollar is higher vs the EUR by 0.50% and by 0.52% vs the JPY to start the day.
In the video above, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective to kickstart the forex trading day.
The Challenger layoffs totalled 47.99K down from 93.816K last month. The better than expected data comes after better JOLT data yesterday morning. The ADP National Employment will be released at 8:15 AM ET with expectations at 95K vs 37k last month.
Key Expectations for June Jobs Report:
Private Payrolls: +105K (↓ from 140K)
Government Payrolls: -1K last month
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): +0.3% (↓ from 0.4%)
Average Workweek Hours: 34.3 (unchanged)
U6 Underemployment Rate: 7.8% last month
From central bankers today:
ECB policymaker Olli Rehn expressed concern that inflation could remain persistently below the ECB’s 2% target, highlighting the importance of staying vigilant against a potential undershoot that could unanchor expectations. While noting that the ECB is currently in a good position, he warned against complacency. Rehn emphasized that although the exchange rate is not an explicit policy target, the euro's recent appreciation has aided in achieving inflation goals and could enhance the euro's global role—especially if joint European borrowing for defense leads to the creation of a new safe asset. He acknowledged two-sided risks to inflation but maintained a dovish tone by focusing on downside risks and the need to avoid a prolonged undershoot.BoE policymaker Alan Taylor signaled a dovish outlook, warning that a soft landing for the UK economy is at risk amid clear signs of a slowdown and emerging cracks in the labor market. He expressed concern that inflation could fall below target, especially as energy shocks are expected to fade by 2026. Taylor emphasized the need for flexibility in monetary policy, stressing that the Bank is not on a pre-set rate path. He sees a rising probability of downside risks in 2026 due to weakening demand and trade disruptions. Despite acknowledging risks, he cautioned against aggressive rate cuts in the near term, stating that larger cuts aren't necessarily needed or desirable. However, he believes that five rate cuts may be needed in 2025, implying three additional cuts from current levels. Markets are currently pricing in a ~76% chance of a rate cut at the August meeting and two more cuts before year-end.Yesterday, Powell at the ECB Forum said:
U.S. economy is in a good position and that, aside from tariff effects, inflation is at a favorable level.He noted that higher inflation readings are expected this summer due to tariffs,He suggested the Fed might have already cut rates were it not for that added risk.He reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and did not rule out a rate cut in July of.He emphasized the need to monitor inflation and labor market data closely.On fiscal issues, he acknowledged that the U.S. debt path is unsustainable and needs to be addressed This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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