Monday’s action at the FIFA Club World Cup delivered two major upsets, as European heavyweights Manchester City and Inter were knocked out in the last-16 by Al-Hilal and Fluminense. We analyse a day where two teams proved that European club football doesn’t always reign supreme.
Monday saw two of Europe’s biggest club sides humbled in the heat.
Both Manchester City and Internazionale came into the knockout stage of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup having won their respective groups, while City were the only team to have a 100% winning record in the competition.
Ahead of the knockout stages, the Opta supercomputer was positive about both their chances of success this summer in the United States, too. Only Paris Saint-Germain (20.6%) were given a higher chance of winning the 2025 Club World Cup of the remaining 16 sides than City (20.4%) and Inter (12.4%).
But everything changed on Monday. Al-Hilal and Fluminense stunned their more illustrious opponents, sending both European clubs home and reshaping the tournament.
Ahead of their game against Fluminense in Charlotte, Inter were deemed the seventh strongest men’s football team in world football by the Opta Power Rankings, while their Brazilian opponents were down in 181st, making them the lowest-ranked club to participate in the knockout stage of the competition.
That ranking was quickly thrown out following an inspired display from the Brazilian side, as Fluminense sealed a third victory for Brazilian clubs against European opposition at the FIFA Club World Cup – one more than they’ve lost (2).
Fluminense’s 2-0 win extended their unbeaten run in all competitions to 10 matches (W7 D3), with the team keeping clean sheets in five of their last six games.
Their latest shutout was built on outstanding performances from two veterans: 40-year-old captain Thiago Silva and goalkeeper Fábio, who, aged 44 years and 273 days, is the oldest player at the tournament. Thiago Silva is second on that list. Fábio is over a year older than Real Madrid head coach Xabi Alonso but still managed to keep out all four of Inter’s shots on target across the 90 minutes, including an outstanding close-range save from Lautaro Martínez with the score at 1-0.
Perhaps overlooked ahead of the tournament was the timing advantage for Brazilian clubs. With just 12 matchdays of their 38-game Serie A season completed, Brazilian sides arrived at this competition fresh, unlike many European clubs coming off long, gruelling campaigns. That freshness has been evident in their performances so far.
Fluminense will now face Al-Hilal in the quarter-final after the Saudi Pro League side’s thrilling 4-3 extra-time win over Manchester City – arguably the game of the tournament so far.
These numbers are admittedly skewed by the additional 30 minutes of extra-time, but this match saw the most shots (47), shots on target (20) and highest xG total (7.37) of any game at the 2025 Club World Cup so far, while it was also the first to see the cumulative total of touches in the opposition box reach 100.
Al-Hilal’s 3.16 xG was the third-highest non-penalty xG given up by Man City on record under Pep Guardiola, with only Real Madrid’s 3.30 in February 2025 higher across the last five years.
All 17 of their shots came from inside the Man City penalty box, too. In only one previous competitive match under Guardiola had City allowed their opponents at least 17 shots inside their box – that came in January against PSG (20) in their 4-2 capitulation in the Champions League in Paris.
The result ended Guardiola’s exceptional run in the competition. The Spaniard came into the match with a 100% record at the Club World Cup (W11 D0 L0, including previous formats) as a coach, outscoring opponents 38-4 in those matches, including 13-2 in this year’s group stage. His sides had won 10 of those 11 matches by a margin of at least two goals.
Although the disparity between these two clubs wasn’t as stark as Fluminense and Inter in the Opta Power Rankings, there was still a gap of 66 places (4th vs 70th) on the morning of the match.
Based on the Opta supercomputer pre-match projections, these two results were also among the most unlikely at the tournament so far.
Auckland City’s sensational 1-1 draw with Boca Juniors in the group stage was a result that was modelled just 5.4% of the time before kick-off and will almost certainly remain the most unlikely result to occur at this tournament.
Botafogo’s 1-0 win over PSG in the group stage was the most unlikely victory according to the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match projections, with the Brazilian team only winning that game in 6.4% of the 10,000 simulations ahead of kick-off.
Fluminense’s win last night is third in the ranking for the most unlikely result at this tournament. They only defeated Inter in 7.5% of the pre-match simulations by the supercomputer, while Al-Hilal’s 9.9%-win projection before kick-off against Man City is the fourth biggest shock of the 2025 Club World Cup so far, though they did also require extra-time.
We might yet have another upset in the round of 16, too. Liga MX side Monterrey face Bundesliga club Borussia Dortmund in Atlanta in the last match of the round later today.
Ahead of kick-off, the Mexican club are 112 places below Dortmund in the Opta Power Rankings, while the latest match projections see Monterrey progress to the quarter-finals just 25.1% of the time. It’s even lower when considering the result inside 90 minutes only, with Monterrey winning the match without needing extra-time or penalties in just 16.2% of simulations.
The exits of both Man City and Inter have opened up that half of the Club World Cup knockout bracket, and the main beneficiaries are Chelsea. They are currently projected to reach the final in 58.0% of the 10,000 tournament simulations – up from 21.2% on the eve of the last 16.
That half of the draw places them with Fluminense, Al-Hilal and Palmeiras, but as the tournament has shown so far, underestimate these teams at your peril.
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Analysing A Day of Shocks at the FIFA Club World Cup: Man City and Inter Stunned by Underdogs Opta Analyst.
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