Using our NBA Draft model, we’re identifying and analyzing the three best player comps for many of the best prospects in next week’s draft.
Some franchises seem to have all the luck.
The San Antonio Spurs built an extended run of success around David Robinson before Tim Duncan fell into their laps in 1997. That led to a dynastic stretch of four NBA titles between the 1998-99 and 2013-14 seasons. Then in 2023, they won the lottery once again and grabbed another once-in-a-generation player in French sensation Victor Wembanyama.
What about the Dallas Mavericks? They enjoyed a great run at the start of this century with two Western Conference titles and an NBA championship in 2011. And when Hall of Famer Dirk Nowitzki was just about to retire, the Mavs made an NBA Draft-day trade to acquire Luka Doncic in 2018.
Doncic made five All-Star appearances and led the franchise to the 2024 NBA Finals before general manager Nico Harrison made the shocking decision to trade him to the Los Angeles Lakers during the 2024-25 season. The Mavericks finished just 39-43 and missed the playoffs without Doncic, but they may not suffer for long after winning the right to snatch up yet another franchise player in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Cooper Flagg proved he can do it all in his one and only season at Duke, averaging 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks while shooting 38.5% from 3-point range. He led the nation with an 8.68 WAR on the way to being named the AP National Player of the Year.
Though the 6-foot-9 swingman is the consensus No. 1 pick all but assured to be headed to Dallas in next week’s draft, calling him the next Dirk or Luka is a little lazy.
Flagg has drawn comparisons to Scottie Pippen, Kawhi Leonard, Jayson Tatum, Andrei Kirilenko and Lamar Odom, just to name a few. However, for the most part, those comps are opinions built through playing styles, personal experiences and the eye test.
In order to get away from those biases, we’ve built an NBA Draft model that generates comparisons based on how important certain features are in a player’s projection, not necessarily that they play similar styles. So for example, if Flagg’s defensive DRIP (a player’s projected contribution to a team’s plus/minus per 100 possessions) is a really important feature in his projection, players with similar D-DRIP values are going to rate higher among his comps.
Our model is derived from an array of statistical inputs, consensus draft rankings and biographical/anthropometric information to determine where NCAA prospects stand. The DRIP projection we referenced is for the end of Year 4 because NBA rookie contracts for first-round picks are for four years.
It’s important to note that while the model’s NBA comparisons are meant to be at the time those players were entering the draft, it does open the imagination to potential projections.
In 2019, it listed Blake Griffin, Jabari Parker and DeMarcus Cousins among the comps for Zion Williamson, who was very likely the most-hyped prospect on draft night since LeBron James in 2003. All three high first-round picks had battled injuries throughout much of their careers, and Zion has certainly had the same issues with the New Orleans Pelicans.
So what does it say about this year’s class? Let’s identify and analyze the three best player comps for many of the best prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft.
The Top Seven
Cooper Flagg, Duke (6-9; Guard/Forward)
Consensus Ranking: No. 1 Opta Analyst’s Ranking: No. 1 NBA Player Comparisons: Karl-Anthony Towns, Zion Williamson, Jalen SuggsFlagg ranks No. 1 in projected offensive DRIP (O-DRIP) and fifth in defensive DRIP (D-DRIP), making his overall Year-4 projection the sixth-highest DRIP we’ve recorded since 2013 behind Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Haliburton, Jalen Suggs and Chet Holmgren.
So it makes sense that there are some big names on his comp list. We mentioned Zion’s injury history, and Suggs has missed time as well, but Towns played all 82 games in each of his first three NBA seasons. Though Flagg missed most of the ACC tournament with an ankle sprain, these comparisons aren’t necessarily a prediction that he’ll be injury prone at the next level.
For what are typically pretty conservative player comps, the talent level here should speak for itself.
VJ Edgecombe, Baylor (6-5; Guard)
Consensus Ranking: No. 3 Opta Analyst’s Ranking: No. 2 NBA Player Comparisons: Lonzo Ball, Aaron Gordon, Jabari SmithEdgecombe is expected to be selected somewhere in the top five and our model agrees, ranking him as the second-best player in the class. While the model doesn’t rate him particularly high defensively with the 17th-highest projected D-DRIP, he has the third-best O-DRIP behind only Flagg and Rutgers product Dylan Harper.
Because of his athleticism, flashes of elite scoring ability and potential as a playmaker, the Ball, Gordon and Smith comps make a lot of sense.
Thomas Sorber, Georgetown (6-10; Forward/Center)
Consensus Ranking: 17th Opta Analyst’s Ranking: No. 3 NBA Player Comparisons: Wendell Carter Jr., Chet Holmgren, Walker KesslerSorber might not be selected in the top 10 or even the top 20 (according to many mock drafts), but he rates as the third-best prospect by our model thanks to a projected D-DRIP that tops all others in the class.
His comps tell a similar story, as Kessler led the NBA with 2.4 blocks per game this season and Holmgren’s 2.2 would have been second had he played in enough games to qualify. The 255-pound Sorber was the only player in Division I to average at least 14.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.5 steals in 2024-25.
Dylan Harper, Rutgers (6-6; Guard)
Consensus Ranking: No. 2 Opta Analyst’s Ranking: No. 4 NBA Player Comparisons: Anthony Edwards, De’Aaron Fox, Jaylen BrownCoincidentally, Harper is widely expected to go No. 2 to the Spurs and play alongside one of his comps, Fox, and the previously mentioned Wembanyama. We expect Harper, the son of former NBA player Ron Harper, to be the second-best offensive player in this class behind Flagg.
Defensively, however, is a different story. He owns the fifth-worst projected D-DRIP among our top 30 prospects and it’s why he’s fourth overall in our rankings. And while his comps are all elite offensive players, none are considered great defensively with only Edwards owning a positive D-DRIP at the end of the 2024-25 NBA season.
Amari Williams, Kentucky (6-10; Center)
Consensus Ranking: 55th Opta Analyst’s Ranking: No. 5 NBA Player Comparisons: Herb Jones, Xavier Tillman, Kyle AndersonMuch like Sorber, Williams projects out high because of his elite potential on the defensive end. Across five seasons at Drexel and Kentucky, he averaged 1.6 blocks in 141 career games.
Williams is predicted to have the second-best D-DRIP in the draft class after Year 4 in the NBA behind only Sorber. His No. 1 comp, Herb Jones, ranks 10th in the NBA among those with at least 500 minutes in 2024-25 in D-DRIP.
Kon Knueppel, Duke (6-7; Guard/Forward)
Consensus Ranking: No. 5 Opta Analyst’s Ranking: No. 6 NBA Player Comparisons: Gradey Dick, Grayson Allen, Jayson TatumWe get to see a bit of the range in terms of Knueppel’s potential in his comps, with Jayson Tatum on the high end, Gradey Dick on the lower side and Grayson Allen somewhere in the middle. Knueppel’s ranking is weighed heavily by his promising outlook offensively, where he’s projected to have the fifth-best O-DRIP.
As a freshman playing alongside Flagg with the Blue Devils, he averaged 14.4 points while shooting 40.6% from beyond the arc and 91.4% from the free-throw line. That lines up pretty closely with Allen, who has shot 41.4% from 3 and 85.7% from the line over his seven-year career.
Khaman Maluach, Duke (7-2; Center)
Consensus Ranking: No. 6 Opta Analyst’s Ranking: No. 7 NBA Player Comparisons: Mo Bamba, Isaiah Jackson, Onyeka OkongwuWith three players likely to be drafted in the top 10, it’s no wonder Duke won 35 games and reached the Final Four. The 7-2 Maluach didn’t put up huge numbers offensively in 2024-25, averaging 8.6 points while shooting 71.2% from the field. However, he showed some potential as a rim protector and big-bodied defender like a couple of his comps.
The South Sudan native averaged 12.4 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per 40 minutes, but he’ll have to stay out foul trouble after finishing with four or more fouls in six of his last 22 games. Maluach projects out to have the sixth-highest D-DRIP in the class after Year 4 in the NBA.
The Rest of the Top 15
Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s (6-9; Forward)
Consensus Ranking: 19th Opta Analyst’s Ranking: No. 8 NBA Player Comparisons: Christian Braun, PJ Washington, Keegan MurrayTamar Bates, Missouri (6-5; Guard)
Consensus Ranking: 62nd Opta Analyst’s Ranking: No. 9 NBA Player Comparisons: Immanuel Quickley, Trey Murphy III, Luke KennardCollin Murray-Boyles (6-8; Forward)
Consensus Ranking: 13th Opta Analyst’s Ranking: 10th NBA Player Comparisons: Jakob Poeltl, Victor Oladipo, Ben SimmonsJeremiah Fears, Oklahoma (6-4; Guard)
Consensus Ranking: No. 9 Opta Analyst’s Ranking: 11th NBA Player Comparisons: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cade Cunningham, Trae YoungDanny Wolf, Michigan (7-0; Forward/Center)
Consensus Ranking: 23rd Opta Analyst’s Ranking: 12th NBA Player Comparisons: Matisse Thybulle, Bruce Brown Jr., Robert WilliamsAce Baldwin Jr., Penn State (6-1; Guard)
Consensus Ranking: Undrafted Opta Analyst’s Ranking: 13th NBA Player Comparisons: Markquis Nowell, Jose Alvarado, T.J. McConnellYanic Konan Niederhauser, Penn State (7-0; Forward)
Consensus Ranking: 35th Opta Analyst’s Ranking: 14th NBA Player Comparisons: Nicolas Claxton, Gorgui Dieng, Nerlens NoelTre Johnson, Texas (6-6; Guard)
Consensus Ranking: No. 7 Opta Analyst’s Ranking: 15th NBA Player Comparisons: Tre Mann, Ja Morant, RJ BarrettOther Notables
Ace Bailey, Rutgers (6-9; Forward)
Consensus Ranking: No. 4 Opta Analyst’s Ranking: 31st NBA Player Comparisons: Andrew Wiggins, Patrick Williams, Jabari ParkerDerik Queen, Maryland (6-10; Center)
Consensus Ranking: No. 8 Opta Analyst’s Ranking: 16th NBA Player Comparisons: Joel Embiid, Justise Winslow, Dereck Lively IIKasparas Jakucionis, Illinois (6-6; Guard)
Consensus Ranking: 10th Opta Analyst’s Ranking: 18th NBA Player Comparisons: Tyrese Maxey, Devin Booker, Moses MoodyJase Richardson, Michigan State (6-2; Guard)
Consensus Ranking: 11th Opta Analyst’s Ranking: 22nd NBA Player Comparisons: Lauri Markkanen, Malik Beasley, Cam ThomasCarter Bryant, Arizona (6-8; Forward)
Consensus Ranking: 12th Opta Analyst’s Ranking: 17th NBA Player Comparisons: Cason Wallace, Jalen Duren, Dalen TerryFor more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The Next You-Know-Who: Our Player Comparisons for 2025 NBA Draft Prospects Opta Analyst.
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