Almost halfway through 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays are performing better than expected despite getting virtually no value from the players they acquired during the off-season.
Coming off a 74-88 campaign, it was fair to assume the team needed a significant influx of talent to compete in what looks like the last year of the Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-Bo Bichette era. That’s what the team got in the form of slugger Anthony Santander, defensive whiz Andrés Giménez, future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, and a back-of-the-bullpen remodel headlined by Jeff Hoffman.
That cohort was the biggest reason to expect a turnaround from the team this year, yet the results are unimpressive so far. Santander and Giménez have combined to hit .189/.282/.307 for -0.1 fWAR — with both spending time on the IL. Scherzer is working his way back, but he’s pitched only three innings in a Blue Jays jersey. Hoffman is carrying a 5.52 ERA, and the trio of relievers meant to firm up the back of Toronto’s bullpen (Hoffman, Yimi García and Nick Sandlin) have combined for a mediocre 4.27 mark.
Of all the players the Blue Jays acquired in the off-season, the most impactful has been starter/bulk reliever Eric Lauer, who has provided the club with 35.1 innings and a 2.29 ERA after being signed to a minor-league deal in December.
Despite the new guys failing to make a mark, the Blue Jays have a solid 40-34 record and are firmly entrenched in a wild-card spot with playoff odds over 60 per cent. The guys making that happen were all part of an organization that looked devoid of talent coming out of 2024.
A combination of bouncebacks and breakouts is pushing this team forward, and zeroing in on the most significant developments can give us a sense of how likely the Blue Jays are to ride the wave they’re currently on — and how much they’ll need the off-season reinforcements to pick it up as 2025 wears on.
The George Springer-Alejandro Kirk renaissance
One of the biggest reasons the Blue Jays offence has disappointed in recent years is that Springer and Kirk have gone from near-elite hitters to middling ones. The difference between their combined production in 2021 and 2022 vs. 2023 and 2024 is stark.
Seasons
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
2021-22
.270
.352
.466
130
2023-24
.244
.320
.377
98
Considering that both hovered around MLB-average in both 2023 and 2024, there wasn’t much reason for optimism that 2025 would be much different. Considering Springer’s age (35), further decline seems like a realistic possibility, but instead, the pair has become a potent middle-of-the-lineup combination.
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
.277
.350
.446
125
Neither player is having a career year by wRC+, but they are significantly outpacing expectations, and both have average exit velocities at least three miles per hour better than last season and hard-hit rates at that exceed their 2024 mark by seven per cent or more. In Kirk’s case, that hard-hit rate (56.2 per cent) is elite, ranking sixth among all qualified hitters.
Is it sustainable? These guys aren’t just putting up better numbers than they have in recent years; they are both putting a charge into the ball.
The progress they’ve made in 2025 should mostly stick, with the most significant caveat being health. Kirk’s work behind the plate consistently puts him in harm’s way, and Springer’s age increases the likelihood of nagging injuries.
Addison Barger’s emergence
Last season, Barger hit just .197/.250/.351 in 225 MLB plate appearances, and his contact quality wasn’t as strong as it’s been in the minor leagues. As he approached his age-25 season, it wasn’t clear if he’d be able to break through at the highest level.
The toolsy slugger has a .275/.333/.509 line in 186 plate appearances in his second look at major-league pitching, and the percentiles on his underlying numbers tell the story of a player absolutely annihilating the ball.
While he’s still refining his approach, his pure ball-striking ability should keep him effective even if his walk and strikeout rates aren’t particularly strong.
Is it sustainable? Nothing about what Barger is doing now invites doubt; he just needs to show it over a longer sample size — particularly considering his 2025 stats are better than his career triple-A slash line (.256/.364/.439). He also has yet to show he can hold his own against MLB southpaws, going .203/.261/.297 against them in 69 plate appearances.
That’s not enough of a sample to prove he’s destined to be a platoon bat, but it’s a noteworthy hurdle he still has to clear.
Barger probably won’t end the season with a 135 wRC+, but there’s more reason to believe that he’ll have an additive effect on this offence than not.
The bullpen bounceback
Despite the new arms not meeting expectations, a bullpen that posted a 4.82 ERA last year with fWAR (-2.5) that was worst in the majors by a mile has come around.
Blue Jays relievers currently rank 11th in the majors in ERA (3.60) and 10th in fWAR (2.2) while covering the eighth-most innings of any team.
There are two primary drivers of this success. The first is the combination of Yariel Rodríguez and Brendon Little thriving in high-leverage roles. The former has gone from a starter to a multi-inning fireman, consistently building a scoreless bridge to Hoffman. He was seldom used early in the season, but since April 14, he ranks ninth among all relievers in innings pitched (30.1) with a 1.19 ERA to show for his efforts.
Little, on the other hand, has transformed from a pitch-to-contact groundball specialist to one of the best strikeout artists in the game. After posting a strikeout rate of just 18.7 per cent last season, he’s up to 35.3 per cent in 2025 — the seventh-best mark among relievers with 30 or more innings pitched.
While the southpaw’s stuff hasn’t changed too much, he’s gone from a sinker-first approach to focusing on attacking hitters with his knuckle curve far more often.
The second biggest factor in the Blue Jays’ relief turnaround is the impact performances they’ve gotten from rookies Mason Fluharty, Braydon Fisher and Paxton Schultz. All three were relatively unheralded arms who opened 2025 at triple-A, and they’ve collectively produced 62 innings of 2.61 ERA ball with excellent strikeout numbers (10.74 K/9).
Is it sustainable? The Rodríguez-Little duo seems likely to keep performing as the right-hander was always projected to be a high-leverage arm if he didn’t stick as a starter, and the southpaw’s elite bat-missing gives him a large margin for error.
The rookie crop is tougher to count on.
Fluharty has rock-solid peripherals early in his MLB career (2,57 xERA), but doesn’t have much prospect pedigree. Strikeouts have always come easily to Fisher in his pro career, but he’s struggled with walks at the minor-league level (5.0 BB/9). We haven’t seen any evidence of that yet, and if his command has improved, he should be a solid middle reliever.
Schultz lacks a stellar minor league track record (4.46 ERA in 454 innings) and he’s a bit older (27), but he’s been a starter for most of his pro career, and might be finding a new gear in relief. Still, his projections are the worst of the trio, and what he’s done so far is better understood as found money than a preview of what’s to come.
Honourable mention: How about Ernie Clement?
Clement has nearly matched his fWAR from 2024 (2.2) already, thanks to a 109 wRC+ and elite defensive metrics across multiple positions. He’s hitting the ball slightly harder than he did in 2024 (87.7-m.p.h. average exit velo vs. 85.5 m.p.h.), but his offensive success seems driven by a BABIP jump from .266 to .317, and his expected wOBA (.299) is well below his actual number (.323).
It seems like he’s been a touch lucky, but the defence is as real as it gets, and the fact that his 2.1 fWAR ranks 35th among all MLB position players is undoubtedly helping the Blue Jays do what they’re doing.
Where does all that leave the Blue Jays?
In a better spot than they could’ve reasonably expected entering 2025.
One third of the team’s lineup (Kirk, Springer, and Barger) has stepped up to reduce the team’s reliance on Guerrero and Bichette, neither of whom has quite met expectations this season. Toronto has also seen growth in the bullpen and unearthed some intriguing new arms.
Clement has given them more than they reasonably could’ve expected already, and Tyler Heineman also fits that category. The backup catcher’s wildly improbable offensive surge has helped him produce 1.6 fWAR, the 35th-best single-season total from a backstop in franchise history despite playing in just 25 games.
Even with all of those noteworthy developments, the Blue Jays will need their off-season shopping to bear more fruit in the second half of the season.
Injuries and ineffectiveness from Bowden Francis mean that Scherzer is needed to fill a wide-open rotation spot. The team’s quartet of young outfielders — Alan Roden, Jonatan Clase, Davis Schneider, and Will Robertson — have hit just .192/.289/.279, creating a need for the return of Santander (and Daulton Varsho). Hoffman won’t justify his contract, and will cost Toronto games, if he continues to run the fifth-highest HR/9 rate among qualified relievers (2.32). Giménez may create most of his value with his glove, but his current 76 wRC+ is tough to stomach. The Blue Jays can reasonably expect better based on his track record.
For what feels like the first time in a couple of seasons, there are positive surprises up and down the Blue Jays roster. Unfortunately for the team, the negative surprise ledger is also piled up, primarily with the club’s new faces.
If that group finds its footing, it could help keep the Blue Jays in the race and pave the way for a third category of players to emerge — meaningful trade-deadline acquisitions.
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