The country that shows us why the new smoking ban is doomed ...Middle East

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They are the only consumer product that kills their purchasers when used as intended – causing an early death in half of all lifelong smokers.

To be fair to smokers, most actually want to quit and have tried several times – but they cannot, because the nicotine in cigarettes is so addictive.

In a roundabout way, that is what a radical new law, due to come into force in 18 months’ time, is seeking to do.

As in most countries, it is currently illegal for UK shops to sell cigarettes to under-18s. Under the new law, that age limit will start nudging up, by one year every year.

It sounds like a cunning plan. Unfortunately, it is wrong-headed and unworkable, and if Australian anti-smoking legislation has anything to teach us, it will foment a wave of organised crime.

There is something fundamentally strange and illogical about the prospect of two young adults, aged 21 and 20, walking into a shop and one of them being able to legally buy a pack of cigarettes, while for the other, it would be illegal. Yet that is set to be the case very soon.

It is hard to imagine that any of those sources will have more respect for a bizarre new law than they do for current rules. When the law becomes an ass, it is less likely to be obeyed.

The black market is the chief obstacle after outlawing any popular consumer product. This was illustrated most famously in 1920s America when the outlawing of alcohol led to a crime wave.

In contrast with most other places, Australia has long had heavy restrictions on vaping, and its taxes on tobacco are so high that legal cigarettes are effectively priced out of reach for some people.

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But in Australia, the excise rate has tripled over the past 10 years, and now accounts for 70 per cent of the average cost of $40 (£29) for a pack of 20 cigarettes – about £20, the highest price of any developed country, according to The Guardian.

Criminal gangs are fighting to control the tobacco and vape black markets, leading to fire-bombings of shops and street shootings. There have been over a hundred arson attacks in Melbourne, the country’s biggest city; the first fatality came this year when 27-year-old Katie Tangey was caught up in a turf war when she was house-sitting for someone else.

It’s quite plausible the UK could go down the same route. Already, according to a Tobacco Control study, about one in 10 smokers are buying illegal products. It is not hard to imagine that the black market will expand to encompass a new cohort of young adult smokers when the Tobacco and Vapes Bill takes effect.

The bill is popular with the public. Surveys show it is supported by two-thirds of people – unsurprising, as today, only about one in eight people smoke. Most non-smokers – me included – find it a smelly and revolting habit, and smokers and non-smokers alike would generally prefer it if our children never take up the habit.

Just because something has popular support, that doesn’t mean it is the right thing to do. In fact, it could have deadly consequences.

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