Israel’s military operations, particularly its widely condemned campaign in Gaza, have left it increasingly abandoned on the world stage. European powers have distanced themselves over civilian casualties and blockades, while even the Donald Trump-aligned MAGA faction in the US has grown wary of Benjamin Netanyahu’s manoeuvring to drag America into yet another Middle Eastern conflict.
Israel has penetrated deep into the heart of a porous and increasingly unpopular Iranian regime. Its foreign intelligence service Mossad has curated an expansive network within Iran capable of supporting operations with logistics, funding, and manpower. These assets have allowed for significant pre-attack sabotage — disabling missile launchers, weakening air defences — granting the Israeli Air Force an unobstructed corridor to Tehran, some 1,500 kilometres from Israeli territory. With Syrian airspace repurposed as a refuelling zone, over 200 Israeli aircraft have operated largely with impunity over Iranian skies, commanding near-complete air superiority. Israel announced on Monday that it had established “full air superiority” over Tehran.
The Fordo (Fordow) uranium enrichment facility, south of the capital Tehran. Iranian authorities said on Friday that nuclear sites at Fordow and Isfahan had not been hit in Israel strikes, according to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (Photo: Maxar Technologies / AFP)Yet caveats abound. The core of Iran’s nuclear capability lies buried in Fordow, beneath 45 metres of mountain. Destroying it would require either US bunker busters or an audacious Mossad operation. Simultaneously, Israel’s campaign of assassinations — extending beyond nuclear scientists to high-ranking IRGC commanders — risks turning tactical success into strategic overreach, especially if Iran interprets these moves as precursors to regime change.
Iran’s retaliatory arc
Trails of Iranian missiles launched at Israel are seen in the sky from the Nuseirat refugee camp in the besieged Gaza Strip (Photo by Eyad BABA / AFP)
Israel’s military can sustain the strikes for now. Key critical infrastructures such as air bases and air defences remain intact. Critical civilian infrastructure such as ports and, most importantly Ben Gurion airport, remain operational. But Iran could decide to broaden its target list including Israel’s power grid or even as a wild card its nuclear power plant in Dimona.
A true wild card would be the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei — a move that could trigger a succession crisis within Iran’s deep state. Israel’s willingness to eliminate figures like Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah makes this scenario not entirely implausible.
The pivotal role of the United States
Trump’s claim to be a “peace president” is unravelling. He failed to contain Netanyahu and is now scrambling to reframe the narrative as part of a calculated pressure campaign against Iran. But Gulf mediators in Oman and Qatar are sceptical. They see little chance of Iran returning to the negotiation table in the short run unless it can frame its bloodied nose into a resilience narrative.
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Still, a path forward remains. If Trump can extend genuine security guarantees — underwritten by Gulf states eager to restore stability — Iran may recognise the opportunity to sue for peace. While Israel is unlikely to achieve a clean strategic victory, Iran also lacks the long-term capacity to sustain this war. The wiser course may be to leverage current tactical gains into a comprehensive nuclear deal.
Dr Andreas Krieg is a Middle East analyst and assistant professor at the School of Security of King’s College London
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