The US has partially evacuated its staff from neighbouring Iraq, amid concerns that anticipated Iran could retaliate on American sites there due to its close relationship with Israel.
Trump has said that Iran “can’t have a nuclear weapon“, and that there would be “trouble” if the talks do not bear fruit.
Reports of the US withdrawal from Iraq and Israel’s looming operation came from US Government sources briefing to the American press.
“You do something like that as a way to expose Israel,” said Rowena Abdul Razak, an Iran expert and former lecturer in Middle Eastern history at the London School of Economics and Queen Mary University.
“We don’t know for sure what’s been said behind closed doors, but the fact that they’re at least revealing Israel’s plans indicates the US doesn’t want to be a part of this and is, to some extent, warning Iran.”
Caption: Donald Trump talks to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a meeting where Trump announced nuclear talks with Iran in April (Source: Reuters)“This is a high risk gamble,” she said. “In recent days there has been a growing sense that the window of opportunity for a US-Iran deal may be closing. The US may be prepping to deter Iranian retaliation in case of an Israeli strike, but it is unclear if it’s real strategy or leverage-building posturing to pressure Tehran into a ‘quick deal”.”
Israel attack nuclear, military or even civilian sites
If the operation goes ahead, it may remain localised and targetted, focusing on Iranian nuclear programme or military bases.
Israel could also hit military bases or strongholds of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and may focus on disarming Iran’s air force to curtail its ability to strike Israeli again.
Potential Iranian targets that Israel could strike
“Suspected ongoing activities at Taleghan-2 was the justification of the October 2024 strike. Other nuclear programme-related facilities like Taleghan-1, Shahid Boroujerdi – and underground mountain site – and Sanjarian could be possible targets if they are related to any ongoing nuclear weapons research activities, but this is very unclear.”
It may also target sites linked to Iranian uranium enrichment, a key part of nuclear capability development, or uranium mining, milling, and fabrication sites, Janes said.
“There have been reports since Israel’s last strikes about economic-related infrastructure being possible targets as a way to put economic pressure on the government.”
“The question now is whether the Oman-facilitated talks can offer an off-ramp to keep negotiations going, but time is running out. Both sides are demonstrating willingness to project force if necessary, and this has once again plunged the region into a level of high risk and uncertainty.”
Razak said it would be “really drastic” to hit civilian targets or take aim at Tehran, and was especially unlikely without explicit US support.
Targeted airstrikes would almost certainly draw an Iranian response, but this may also be limited.
The most likely response would be to launch a barrage of missiles on Israel, as it did twice last year in April and October.
Caption: Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system intercepted attacks fired from Lebanon in August (AP Photo/Leo Correa, file)
“Generally, Tehran likes to play down when Israel attacks them, like last year: Iran claimed it was only a few attacks and not a big deal. They’re quite good at diffusing; they want to save face and to avoid further escalation.
Conflict spills into wider Middle East – or rest of the world
Razak said that the operation spilling into a regional conflict was unlikely because Iran doesn’t have many regional allies who would be willing to come to its aid immediately.
“There isn’t the apetitite to destabilise the region further after Gaza and Lebanon.”
“This is something I really doubt but it is an option on the table. If that happens, we are going to see things really escalate,” Razak said.
It is unclear how Trump would respond. The US president has vocally opposed American involvement in conflict, and could play it down to avoid becoming embroiled in war.
However, he may have little choice but to retaliate if it causes an American loss of life, potentially triggering wider involvement from allies including the UK.
How worried should we be about Iran’s nuclear threat?
The Islamic regime has said its nuclear programme “only serves peaceful purposes” and that “nuclear weapons have no place in our doctrine”.
Whether or not this is true, Iran almost certainly does not yet have nuclear weapons, according to the intelligence company Janes, so its immediate nuclear threat to other countries today is “minimal”.
However, it does have some of the capabilities needed to create a bomb, including the ballistic missiles that could theoretically be used to carry nuclear warheads, and uranium supplies.
The Janes team said documents from the Tehran nuclear archive, released by Israel in 2018, revealed that Iran almost certainly ran a nuclear weaponisation programme between 1999 to 2004 and made “fairly significant advances” in many areas needed to develop a nuclear bomb.
In 2015, Iran signed an agreement which placed limitations on its nuclear programme in exchange for relief from sanctions, but it effectively collapsed when Trump withdrew America from it three years later.
Dr Rob Geist Pinfold, international security lecturer at King’s College London, said Iran’s nuclear programme had accelerated since the collapse of the 2015 agreement, and its breakout period [the time needed to produce a nuclear bomb] had “shortened significantly in recent years.”
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( How the looming threat of Israel bombing Iran could lead to all-out war )
Also on site :