We analyse the Opta supercomputer’s Club World Cup 2025 Group D predictions for Chelsea, Flamengo, ES Tunis and Los Angeles FC. Who will qualify for the last 16?
Fresh off the back of winning their first piece of silverware under Enzo Maresca, Chelsea will have the opportunity to further expand their trophy cabinet at this summer’s FIFA Club World Cup, a tournament they have won once before in its previous format back in 2021.
The Blues are joined in Group D by Flamengo, Los Angeles FC and Espérance de Tunis, and are given a 76.7% shot at finishing top according to the Opta supercomputer, with only Inter in Group E deemed more likely to win their own group (79.0%).
Club World Cup Group D Predictions: The Quick Stats
Chelsea are judged by the Opta supercomputer to have an 8.4% chance of winning the Club World Cup, with five teams above them in terms of likelihood. Flamengo are the second strongest side in Group D, and are given a 51.8% chance of reaching the knockout stage. Los Angeles FC come in at a 33.9% chance of progression, while Espérance de Tunis are given the lowest probability of advancing (20.9%).For much of the season it wasn’t clear if Enzo Maresca was maximising the quality of his Chelsea squad, with murmurs throughout the campaign that the club’s hierarchy could be on the lookout for yet another new coach.
If those rumours had any substance, those concerns were put to bed by season’s end, with a spot in next season’s UEFA Champions League confirmed with a final day win against Nottingham Forest, before Maresca’s men defeated Real Betis 4-1 to lift the UEFA Conference League three days later.
The pull of Champions League football cannot be overstated, and it has been reported that Chelsea’s participation in the competition next season was a difference maker in their ability to sign Liam Delap from Ipswich Town earlier this month.
Delap joins a squad with incredible potential; the average age of Chelsea’s starting XI in the Premier League in 2024-25 was 24 years and 36 days, the youngest in the competition’s history. He also reunites with Maresca, under whose guidance he won the Premier League 2 back in 2020-21 while both were still employed by Manchester City.
Chelsea can be considered among the best of the rest at this summer’s Club World Cup, with their predicted chance of winning the tournament currently sitting at 8.4%, behind Paris Saint-Germain, Man City, Bayern Munich, Inter and Real Madrid.
The biggest threat to Chelsea in Group D comes from Flamengo, who have a 51.8% chance of progressing to the knockout rounds according to the Opta supercomputer.
Flamengo qualified for this competition by winning the Copa Libertadores in 2022, a competition they have won twice across the last six completed campaigns.
The Brazilian giants, who are the most supported club in the country, are flying this year in Série A and are managed by none other than one-time Chelsea left-back Filipe Luis.
Filipe Luis’ stock is rising, and he is regarded as a potentially significant manager of the future; less than a year into his managerial career he has already won three trophies, and was said to be closely considered for the position as manager of Brazil’s national team before it was eventually awarded to Carlo Ancelotti.
Los Angeles FC have just over a one-in-three chance of making it out of Group D (33.9%). They had a slightly more dramatic route to the competition than most clubs; Mexican side Club Léon originally had this spot, before it was ultimately taken off them due to the violation of multi-club ownership rules.
LAFC, the runners up in the 2023 CONCACAF Champions League to Club Léon, were made to partake in a one-off play-in match against Club América on 31 May, winning 2-1 in extra-time despite trailing with only a few minutes left in regular time.
At their disposal is none other than another former Chelsea man, Olivier Giroud, although the Frenchman has mostly been used as an impact sub in recent times. Giroud has faced Chelsea as an opponent 16 times in his career and has only scored one goal against them.
Rounding out the group are Espérance de Tunis, who have only a 20.9% chance of reaching the knockout rounds.
ES Tunis are the most successful club in Tunisian football history, winning the top-flight on 34 occasions, including in eight of the last nine seasons.
Youcef Belaïli can be considered ES Tunis’ talisman; the winger has been capped more than 50 times for the Algeria national team and is currently enjoying a third spell with the club. Belaïli scored seven goals in this season’s CAF Champions League.
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Club World Cup 2025: Group D Preview and Predictions Opta Analyst.
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