Market Outlook for the week of June 9th - 13th ...Middle East

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On Tuesday, Australia will see the release of the Westpac consumer sentiment index, while in the U.K., data on the average earnings index 3m/y, claimant count change, and the unemployment rate will be published.

Finally, on Friday, the U.S. will release preliminary figures for the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and UoM inflation expectations.

Additionally, it’s worth noting that financial markets have shown greater stability compared to April, which may help support consumer sentiment.

Analysts continue to caution that U.K. jobs data remains somewhat unreliable due to ongoing data collection issues. Nevertheless, the overall outlook is not very optimistic, and a cooling labor market appears increasingly likely. Wage growth is also expected to slow in the coming months. In terms of monetary policy, the BoE is not anticipated to deliver another rate cut until November.

This week’s data is expected to offer a clearer picture of how tariffs are affecting consumer prices. The May release will help determine whether the initial signs of tariff-driven price pressures observed in April were temporary or the start of a broader trend. Particular focus will be on core goods categories such as household items, recreational products, and IT equipment. According to analysts at Wells Fargo, inventory management and customer retention strategies are currently helping to mitigate some of the inflationary impact of tariffs.

The consensus for the U.S. core PPI m/m is 0.3% vs. the prior -0.4%, while the headline PPI m/m is expected at 0.2% versus -0.5% prior.

At the same time, a steep 1.6% drop in trade services margins reflects a growing squeeze on profitability, forcing firms to make difficult pricing decisions. Looking ahead, this week’s data is expected to show some improvement, though uncertainty around cost pressures and demand conditions still lingers.

This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.

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