By Sophie Kaufman on SwimSwam
2025 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS
Tuesday, June 3 – Saturday, June 7, 2025 Indianapolis, Indiana Indiana University Natatorium LCM (50 meters) World Championship Selection Criteria SwimSwam Preview Index SwimSwam Pick’Em Contest – Track Your Entries! Meet Central Psych Sheets Live ResultsThe 2025 U.S. National Championships are underway, which means that our Pick’Em contest has closed. We already posted the master spreadsheet for you to track your entries throughout the meet. Now, it’s time to look for some trends.
Two races were almost unanimous–the women’s and men’s 800 freestyle. Of the 345 entries to the Pick’Em contest, all but one entry picked Katie Ledecky to win the women’s 800 freestyle. The one person that didn’t pick Ledecky did not make a selection in the event. It’s the same story in the men’s 800 freestyle, where the two entries that did not pick Bobby Finke did not pick a winner at all. Interestingly, Finke was not the unanimous choice in the 1500 freestyle, where he is the world record holder and the two-time defending Olympic champion.
More Races With Clear Favorites
There are four events besides the 800 freestyles where over 99% of people picked the same winner. The men’s 1500 freestyle, which we already mentioned, the women’s 1500 freestyle, the women’s 100 butterfly, and the women’s 50 butterfly. 99.7% of people picked Gretchen Walsh to win the 50 butterfly after she became the second woman to break 25 seconds and 99.4% of people picked her in the 100 butterfly, where she is the world record holder.
Men’s 1500 Freestyle
Women’s 100 Butterfly
Women’s 1500 Freestyle
Women’s 50 Butterfly
There are several other races that were close to this level of unanimity. Regan Smith is the clear favorite in the women’s 200 fly (1st in 98.8% of entries), 100 backstroke (1st in 98.5% of entries), and 200 backstroke (1st in 98.3% of entries). Kate Douglass was picked to win the 200 backstroke in 98.3% of entries.
Things are a bit less clear cut on the men’s side outside of Finke in the distance events. However, Luke Hobson was picked to win the 200 freestyle by 92.7% of the entries.
Close Races
It isn’t a surprise to see that the most wide open race at the meet is the men’s 400 freestyle. It’s one of two events where seven different swimmers were picked to win. The other event was the men’s 50 butterfly but, in that race, Shaine Casas has a clear majority. Casas leads with 67.3% of the vote, ahead of Dare Rose with 17.5%.
Men’s 50 Butterfly
It’s not so simple in the men’s 400 freestyle. Rex Maurer earned the most picks to win out of anyone in this field, with 43.7% of entrants picking him to win and make his first senior international team. Kieran Smith has been a stalwart in this race for a while, and he has 30.8% of the picks to win.
Overall, there are 15 events where there were at least five different swimmers chosen to win. Eight events had six different winner picks, showcasing just how open some of the fields at this meet are. Understandably, most of these “wide open” races are on the men’s side and include all three breaststroke distances.
Events With 5+ Winners Picked
Men’s 400 Freestyle (7) Men’s 50 Butterfly (7) Men’s 50 Free (6) Men’s 100 Back (6) Men’s 100 Breast (6) Women’s 100 Breast (6) Men’s 50 Breast (6) Women’s 50 Breast (6) Men’s 200 Breast (6) Men’s 200 Free (6) Men’s 200 Fly (5) Men’s 200 Back (5) Women’s 400 IM (5) Men’s 50 Back (5) Women’s 50 Free (5)Though G. Walsh is the runaway favorite in the sprint butterfly events, she’s also part of one of the most wide open events on the women’s side. With the top four swimmers in the women’s 100 freestyle returning from the 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials field, each of them received votes to win the event this year in Indianapolis. Walsh still has the edge among Pick’Em entrants, earning about 55% of the votes.
Read the full story on SwimSwam: 2025 U.S. Nationals Pick’Ems: What Races Are The Closest And Which Are Wide Open?
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