Concerningly low amounts of water are flowing from Rocky Mountain snowpack this spring, a summer of drought looms across swaths of the West, and the negotiators tasked with devising a sustainable long-term water plan for the 40 million people who rely on the Colorado River are running out of time.
Commissioners from the seven states in the Colorado River Basin — Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, California and Nevada — must create a plan that will govern how those states divvy up the river’s water after the current guidelines expire at the end of 2026. As the river shrinks due to drought and climate change, the negotiators must decide who will take less water — and they need to do so in the next few months.
“The way the law of the river is set up, this is a decision that takes the seven states, and there are so many stakeholders and users who depend on that,” said Jennifer Pitt, Colorado River program director at the National Audubon Society. “We are really at their mercy and we are just about out of time.”
The negotiators, who met in Las Vegas this week, have repeatedly said they are committed to finding a consensus solution, but have not yet done so and have already blown past previous deadlines set by federal authorities more than a year ago.
JB Hamby, California’s negotiator, said in an interview that the states have been meeting several times a month since December, when tensions between the states burst into public view during a conference. Both the frequency and the tenor of the meetings have since improved, he said.
“I think there’s a lot to be heartened by and the states are committed to working towards a solution,” Hamby said.
If the states cannot come to an agreement, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation will implement its own plan. That outcome could prompt years of expensive litigation and put complicated water management questions in the hands of judges not specialized in the issues.
Litigation would create massive uncertainty in the basin and result in a decision that is not ideal for anyone, experts said.
Those who depend on the river are already dealing with uncertainty: this season’s mountain snowpack is expected to deliver about half the median amount of water to the system’s two major reservoirs, which are already two-thirds empty. Years of drought not balanced by decreases in water consumption have drained Lake Mead and Lake Powell, and aridification fueled by climate change is expected to continue to reduce the flow of the river that makes modern life possible across the Southwest.
The Colorado River irrigates more than 5 million acres of farmland — including water supplies for much of the nation’s winter vegetables — and comprises large portions of many Western cities’ water portfolio, said Brad Udall, senior water and climate research scholar at Colorado State University’s Colorado Water Institute.
Half of Denver’s water comes from the Colorado River system. In Las Vegas, 90% of the water comes from the river.
“All of these places are really dependent on it,” Udall said. “And you can’t fallow cities.”
‘We need to be working as quickly as possible’
The Denver Post requested an interview with all seven of the state negotiators. Three states — New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona — declined an interview and two others — Wyoming and Utah — did not respond.
Colorado’s negotiator, Colorado River Commissioner Becky Mitchell, said in a statement that she is focused on working with the other basin states to find a consensus approach for post-2026 operations.
“I hope the basin states are able to work towards sustainable, supply-driven operations of lakes Powell and Mead that are resilient across a range of hydrologic conditions experienced in the basin,” she said. “This past winter’s snowpack is a stark reminder of why a supply-driven approach, one that requires all of us to live within the means of the river, is of absolute necessity if we are to enjoy a sustainable future across the entire Colorado River Basin.”
The states’ negotiators will not speak together at an upcoming major Colorado River conference — a departure from years prior, where representatives from each state appeared on a panel to discuss interstate relations.
The lack of a seven-state panel at the Getches-Wilkinson Conference at the University of Colorado Boulder next week echoes a change at the last major Colorado River conference — the Colorado River Water Users Association conference in December — where each basin held its own panel, but the negotiators did not appear together or even meet while all in Las Vegas for that conference.
Hamby said the lack of a panel in Boulder does not signify anything substantial and that negotiators are prioritizing meeting to negotiate over talking on a stage.
The primary question negotiators must settle is how to share the pain of shrinking water supplies between the Upper Basin — which includes Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming and Utah — and the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada.
The Upper Basin states sit upstream of Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Without large reservoirs in which to store water, the Upper Basin states’ water supply is reliant on snowpack and precipitation, which can vary widely year to year. In contrast, the Lower Basin’s water supply is more consistent and predictable as it comes from Lake Mead and Lake Powell.
Upper Basin negotiators have said their states should not have to take mandatory cuts to their water supplies because they have never used their entire legal allotment and already absorb water shortages nearly every year due to shrinking flows. Lower Basin negotiators have said everyone in the basin should be forced to use less water in the driest years.
Negotiators are feeling pressure to quickly bridge those differing views and settle a number of other related questions.
“There’s a general feeling that we need to be working as quickly as possible this year,” Hamby said.
Water flows are low in a section of the Colorado River where the Shoshone Generating Station, a hydroelectric power plant, diverts water to generate power before returning it downstream, east of Glenwood Springs on Sept. 4, 2024. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)Decision timeline
Officials at the Bureau of Reclamation in January made public a document outlining five possible plans for managing the river and its two reservoirs.
The agency is now working to complete a draft analysis of how each of those plans would function and impact the environment, which bureau officials previously said would be published in the summer of 2025.
After the draft is published, the bureau will solicit public comment, issue a final environmental assessment and then decide which plan to implement. Bureau officials previously said they must make a final decision by August 2026. If the states can create their own consensus plan, it will be included in this process.
Bureau officials this week did not answer a question about whether they had given the states a deadline for presenting a consensus plan so that it can be included in the lengthy analysis process, which is legally required under the National Environmental Policy Act. They also did not answer a question about when they planned to publish the draft environmental analysis.
Instead, spokesman Peter Soeth sent a statement stating the bureau and the Department of the Interior “are dedicated to providing life-sustaining water and harnessing the significant hydropower the river offers.”
“We are actively engaging in dialogue with the Colorado River Basin partners as we work towards long-term operational agreements for the river after 2026,” the statement said. “Throughout this effort, we remain committed to ensuring fiscal responsibility for the American people.”
It is critical for the states to reach an agreement soon so that there is remaining time for the public to provide input on the proposed plan and to avoid the courts deciding the future of the river basin, Pitt said.
“Regardless of which justices would be called upon to hear this case, it seems inherently clear to me that water managers with decades of experience managing Western water supplies will do a better job creating a management plan for the Colorado River than judges deciding a series of incredibly narrow legal questions,” she said. “That is the worst possible option.”
Both Pitt and Jennifer Gimbel, senior water policy scholar at Colorado State University, expressed optimism that the states would find a solution — or a way to buy a little more time.
“They do have a time crunch, but there’s always ways to bridge that time if they need to,” Gimbel said.
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