This NFL offseason, free agent quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been viewed as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ best alternative for their 2025 starter. Even if that’s the case, their future outlook at the position needs to be factored into the decision as well.
The allure of Aaron Rodgers has been an ever-present storyline during the NFL offseason – particularly with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The legendary, 41-year-old quarterback remains unsigned since being released by the New York Jets in March and has been linked to several QB-needy teams.
As everybody continues to wait on Rodgers’ next move, the Steelers have stood out as the most likely landing spot. They’ve basically been in search of an offensive leader at quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger retired after the 2021 season.
They’ve tried everything over three years, from a first-round pick on Kenny Pickett in 2022 to fliers on veterans like Mitchell Trubisky, Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. They didn’t qualify for the playoffs one year after Roethlisberger’s retirement, then lost in the wild-card round each of the past two seasons.
Now the Steelers are left with signing Rodgers, given their trio of uninspiring options of veteran journeyman (and one-time Steelers’ starting quarterback) Mason Rudolph, 2025 sixth-round pick Will Howard and former Miami Dolphins seventh-round pick Skylar Thompson.
Rodgers is unequivocally better than all three of those quarterbacks for a litany of reasons, least of which being experience (248 career games) and skill (62,952 passing yards and 503 touchdown passes). However, that doesn’t mean the future Hall of Fame quarterback – at least in his current state – is the best fit for Pittsburgh.
The team’s passing offense will look quite different in the upcoming season regardless of who is under center. At wide receiver, they traded away George Pickens, traded for DK Metcalf, signed Robert Woods and expect 2024 third-rounder Roman Wilson to take a step forward after missing almost all of last season with a hamstring injury. The rest of the receivers unit includes veteran tight end Pat Freiermuth and speedster Calvin Austin III.
Now that we’ve set the table, let’s dig into whether the Steelers should even want Rodgers as their quarterback.
Where the Receivers are Catching the Ball
The Steelers’ current primary pass catchers mostly operated in the middle of the field last season. While Metcalf’s split (then with the Seattle Seahawks) is almost even between targets inside and outside the numbers, Woods (for the Houston Texans) and Freiermuth were both targeted more than 55% of the time inside the numbers.
Even Wilson’s 2023 college numbers at Michigan skewed inside.
Graphic by Graham Bell.This is important because of the type of quarterback Rodgers is entering his 21st season. The gunslinger attempted more passes inside the numbers than outside during the 2024 season with the Jets, although his split was fairly balanced.
He also completed 68.9% of his passes inside the numbers, with just a 58.5% completion rate of passes outside the numbers.
Comparatively, two of the Steelers’ other quarterback options skew more heavily inside.
Rudolph and Thompson attempted nearly 70% of their passes inside the numbers last season. Howard, meanwhile, had a closer split to Rodgers’ during his final season at Ohio State, where he guided the FBS national champion.
If the Steelers want variety in their passes, Rodgers is clearly the better choice under center. He can target receivers all over the field and isn’t afraid to try long passes.
But that might not be what offensive coordinator Arthur Smith wants for the Steelers.
This past season, the duo of Wilson and Fields dominated inside the numbers with 79.4% (third among quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts) and 78.0% (fifth) completion rates, respectively. The duo also finished with 89.4% and 93.2% well-thrown rates, and 88.1% and 78.0% open-target rates, respectively. Fields’ well-thrown rate inside the numbers led the league among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts and Wilson’s open-target rate was second.
When targeting pass catchers outside the numbers, however, neither Fields nor Wilson ranked nearly as high in those categories.
The Steelers’ collection of pass catchers suggests Smith prefers receivers who play that way anyway, including Metcalf. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh traded away a player in Pickens who saw 72% of his targets outside the numbers.
This offensive ideology favors all four of the Steelers’ quarterback options.
Steelers Might Prefer a Mobile Quarterback
The state of the offensive line is another element to consider.
It’s bad.
Last season, Pittsburgh allowed the fifth-highest pressure rate and tied for the fifth-highest sack rate at 45.3% and 8.4%, respectively. Only the Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Giants and New Orleans Saints were worse in pressure rate allowed, while the Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans were the same or worse in sack rate allowed.
That’s not great company to be a part of if an offense has an almost 42-year-old quarterback who had an Achilles injury two years ago.
Pittsburgh’s guards are solid with Isaac Seumalo and Mason McCormick – both had a pressure rate allowed of less than 7.3% (league average for guards was 8.1%) and an adjusted sack rate allowed of less than the NFL average of 1.3% for guards last season.
The tackles are the issue. Broderick Jones allowed the 10th-highest pressure rate (12.9%) among 67 tackles with at least 200 pass protection snaps last season, and his 3.6% adjusted sack rate was the fifth highest. Troy Fautanu missed most of the season, with a 9.1% pressure rate allowed in his 22 snaps. Dan Moore, who took over for Fautanu, is gone from the Steelers, but he wasn’t much better.
If these numbers continue this season, whoever is under center will need to scramble often from pressure, and that doesn’t favor Rodgers. He scrambled just 22 times last season, which ranked 22nd out of 39 quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts. His 2.59 yards per scramble also ranked 31st out of that same group.
Meanwhile, Wilson and Fields combined for 49 scrambles in 2024, which would have combined for the 11th most among QBs with at least 200 passing attempts. Wilson’s 4.0 yards per scramble ranked 25th among that group.
As for the other 2025 options, a poor offensive line favors Rudolph, who averaged 7.78 yards per scramble (on nine attempts) with the Titans last season. His career yards per scramble is also high at 7.15.
Thompson and Howard aren’t particularly skilled on scrambles. Thompson has a career average of 1.27 yards per scramble on 11 attempts, while Howard averaged 3.67 yards per scramble at Ohio State in the 2024 season, which ranked 44th among 73 FBS quarterbacks with at least 300 passing attempts.
What Should the Steelers’ 2025 Season Be About?
The reality is Rodgers remains the Steelers’ best quarterback option for winning games in 2025, simply because he is a better player than anyone else on the depth chart.
But that’s not saying much considering the result of the 2024 season with Wilson, who finished better than Rodgers in almost every advanced statistic: completion percentage rate, well-thrown rate, catchable-thrown rate, open rate, and a lower pickable pass rate. That led to the Steelers going 10-7 with the 16th-best offense in the NFL.
Rodgers isn’t better than Wilson at this stage of his career, so throwing him in the lineup would be returning to the status quo, albeit with a few different offensive weapons.
So if winning games in 2025 is the goal, Rodgers is the obvious choice. But he might not even be able to do that after going 13-21 since 2022.
Otherwise, Rodgers does little for this team given his age, waning mobility and a penchant for off-field drama. Plus, if the Steelers are targeting a quarterback in 2026, he could hinder their chances of landing a top draft pick if they finish with a .500-or-better record for the 19th consecutive year under head coach Mike Tomlin.
The Steelers’ inability to find a long-term quarterback is the issue that needs to be resolved here, not finding the right quarterback for the 2025 offense.
They’re a team in transition that still believes it’s a contender, though, and while Rodgers might fit the offense better than Rudolph, Thompson or Howard, that doesn’t make him an ideal fit for the future of the Steelers.
Should the Steelers Actually Want Aaron Rodgers Leading Their Offense? Opta Analyst.
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