Buckle up for the demolition derby between Gov. Gavin Newsom and President Trump over California’s EV mandates. Newsom and state Attorney General Rob Bonta sued Trump after he backed a Senate vote to kill the state’s mandate to ban sales of all new gas or diesel-powered passenger cars and light trucks by 2035.
Zero-emission vehicles include all-electric, plug-in hybrids and hydrogen vehicles. Intermediate goals are 35% ZEV sales by 2026 and 68% by 2035.
But according to the California New Car Dealers Association’s 2025 Auto Outlook Report for Q1, just 20.8% of new cars were ZEVs – a decline from 22% in 2024. To meet that 35% goal next year, ZEV sales would have to increase by 68%.
“Dealers sell what customers want to buy,” said Robb Hernandez, the association’s chairman and president of Camino Real Chevrolet. “No mandate can force consumers to choose otherwise.”
Tesla still held the biggest EV market share at 43.9%, but that was down from 55.5% in Q1 of 2024. The problem: “Californians are giving the cold shoulder” to Tesla “and controversial owner Elon Musk.” Registrations “show a massive decline of 15.1%.”
Part of the decline stems from the anti-Musk protests since his Department of Government Efficiency began cutting government waste. A neighbor drives a Tesla sporting a bumper sticker: “I BOUGHT THIS BEFORE / WE KNEW ELON WAS CRAZY.”
Last November, Newsom proposed extending the state’s expired EV tax credit– except for Tesla. So far, no state extension. But Consumer Reports found as of May 7 car buyers “can still benefit from the federal EV tax credits as well as rebates from local utility providers.”
It’s going to be hard to meet mandates if you attack the top EV company. Meanwhile, Musk has moved on from DOGE. The Wall Street Journal headlined May 27, “Angry Elon is Back. That’s Good for Tesla.”
Another neighbor drives a plug-in BMW. I asked him how he liked it. “Great,” he said. “But my garage has nowhere to plug it in. So I just use gas.”
Let’s turn to politics. Newsom leaves office in 19 months. There’s no reason for the next governor to continue his signature issue. We’re already seeing action in that direction in the campaign for his replacement.
The Los Angeles Times reported May 26, “Villaraigosa, despite climate credentials, pivots toward oil industry in run for governor.” That’s former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. He’s taken $176,000 from the oil industry. And he said of recent oil refinery shutdowns blamed on Newsom’s hostility to the industry, “I’m not fighting for refineries. I’m fighting for the people who pay for gas in this state.”
On March 24 Villaraigosa told NewsNation Now he supports the 100% mandate by 2035. He added the state built 100,000 charging stations the last 10 years, but “needs about 2 million in the next 10 years.” That summarizes the dream – and the reality.
Locally, the nearly 1,300 new car dealers in California will pressure the next governor and the Legislature to postpone the unworkable mandates.
When the violent attacks on Tesla hit in March, Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna, who represents Tesla’s Fremont factory and its 20,00 workers, posted on X, “There is zero tolerance for acts of vandalism against Tesla.” If new car dealers start going bankrupt from being unable to meet the EV mandate, sending tens of thousands of workers into unemployment lines, an old political quip comes to mind for Democratic politicians, “When they feel the heat, they’ll see the light.”
On May 25 the New York Times reported Democrats are spending $20 million on a new concept, “Speaking with American Men: A Strategic Plan.” But what do men want, an EV SUV, or a Ford-350 Super Duty chugging gas at 14 mpg?
It’s obvious the 35% goal for 2026 will be postponed a couple of years, with the 100% EV mandate a mirage on the road to nowhere.
John Seiler is on the SCNG Editorial Board
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