The college football season is less than 100 days away.
The Week 0 slate has 1 interesting game, and it’ll be played in Dublin. No one from the SEC debuts until Week 1. Stanford is the only ACC team playing in Week 0. (That’s still weird, by the way.)
There is still time left to get in a few bets on preseason win totals and college football futures. In the SEC and ACC in particular, there are several teams holding my interest. Below, you’ll find 3 bets I’m making right now (all of them 1 unit each) on 2025 win totals.
Oklahoma over 6.5 wins (-150 via DraftKings)
The Sooners were a 6-win team last season with a 7-win point differential. Despite a completely inept offense, Oklahoma actually outscored the opposition by a combined total of 32 points. And when I say inept, I’m being generous. Per Game on Paper, Oklahoma ranked 129th out of 134 FBS outfits in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. The only thing the offense did with any modicum of respectability was not get stuffed in the backfield on runs, and the Sooners were still in the 49th percentile in stuff rate, so, you know.
Oklahoma’s defense did the heavy lifting, and the stars of that unit (Danny Stutsman, Billy Bowman) are in the NFL now. But there are enough quality pieces returning on that side of the football that a massive drop-off doesn’t seem likely. And coach Brent Venables will take control of the defense in 2025, which gives me a bit of optimism. After all, he was the best defensive mind in the game when at Clemson.
For the Sooners to hit this over, they need a 1-game improvement over last year’s team. I think Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer makes up that difference all by himself. Mateer is one of my favorite players in the SEC heading into 2025, a guy who ranked among the top 10 in the FBS in EPA per dropback and EPA per run last fall. The Sooners also added Cal running back Jadyn Ott, a lightning bolt of a runner when healthy.
Two things have to happen.
The first: OU has to get more from its receivers. Last year, the leading pass-catcher had 324 yards on 42 receptions. Only 1 wideout caught more than 30 passes, and that was Deion Burks, who played in just 5 games. Injuries decimated the room. A healthier season is a must.
The second: Bill Bedenbaugh has to figure it out. When the Sooners were making themselves a regular in the 4-team CFP, the offensive line was an anchor. Bedenbaugh was one of the best line coaches in the game and regularly sent kids to the NFL.
Last season, PFF graded the Sooners out as the 109th-ranked run-blocking unit and the 92nd-ranked pass-blocking group. Jackson Arnold was sacked 34 times and pressured on 40% of his dropbacks. Michael Hawkins Jr. was sacked 15 times and pressured on 42% of his dropbacks. They were 2 of just 14 Power 4 passers to have at least 100 dropbacks last season face pressure on at least 40% of those dropbacks.
The line replaced all 5 starters from the previous year in 2024. And injuries forced Bedenbaugh’s hand, as he rolled out different 5-man starting lineups in each of OU’s first 9 games.
Six of the 10 linemen who saw at least 100 snaps return. Two transfers were brought in, along with 4 freshmen. Five-star recruit Michael Fasusi could play a role. Whatever the combination, more consistent play from the line is key to a better offense.
And Bedenbaugh, a 2-time semifinalist for the Broyles Award entering his 12th year with the program, still deserves the benefit of the doubt.
I think OU can start 5-0 next fall, so I’m jumping on this number now.
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GET THE APPSIGNUP PROMOBET $5GET $300BET NOWClemson over 9.5 wins (-120 via DraftKings)
This is the best Clemson team Dabo Swinney has had since Trevor Lawrence left town. There’s a question mark at tailback, but that’s really the only question mark anywhere. I think Clemson upgraded its defensive coordinator and returns a pair of defensive linemen who will be future top-10 NFL Draft picks. On offense, they lead the nation in returning production even in spite of Phil Mafah’s departure.
Behind Cade Klubnik, I’m looking for this group to take a major step forward in offensive efficiency. Klubnik was much better in 2024 and he finally figured out what it takes on the road. Even still, Clemson ranked 30th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. For this team to live up to lofty expectations, Clemson needs to have a top-10 offense. And there’s no reason the Tigers can’t produce at that kind of level.
Receiver looks like a position of strength. Freshman running back Gideon Davidson could be a pleasant surprise. Klubnik will be one of the best at his position in all of college football. There aren’t really any excuses for Garrett Riley in his third year with the program. The group is older and that continuity needs to pay dividends.
Clemson gets an LSU team in the season-opener that historically stumbles out of the gates. If that game were later in the year, it would worry me. At home to begin the season, I’m fairly confident projecting a Clemson win. After that, there are really only 2 games on the schedule that stand out as tripping points: at Louisville on Nov. 14 and at South Carolina on Nov. 29. If Clemson beats LSU on Aug. 30, it can lose both of those road games and still clear this win total.
Bill Connelly’s spring SP+ update showed a model simulation average of 10 wins for Clemson this season. All data points are pointing in the same direction here. I’m buying the Tigers.
Virginia Tech over 6.5 wins (+105 via DraftKings)
I think the Hokies have a wide variance in 2025. Entering Year 4, Brent Pry has a 16-21 record and needs to show he can move the program forward. This offseason, the Hokies replaced both of their coordinators, they saw 2 starting offensive linemen leave in the transfer portal, they lost their leading tailback to the NFL, and they saw double-digit defenders hit the portal.
This group will resemble last year’s in name only. Maybe that’s a good thing. Last year’s Virginia Tech team won 6 games with an 8-win point differential. The difference was one of the largest of any team in the country.
Quarterback Kyron Drones is a fascinating figure. In 11 wins over the last 2 seasons for VT, he has averaged 8.6 yards per pass with 29 touchdowns against 6 turnovers while completing 64% of his throws. In 9 losses, his per-pass average plummets to 5.9 and his completion rate drops to 56%. He also has more turnovers (11) than touchdowns (10) in defeats.
The team goes as Drones does. That’s typically true of the quarterback position, but it’s especially true in Blacksburg. Drones will be pushed by Pop Watson, and he missed the Hokies’ spring game after undergoing a medical procedure for an undisclosed injury. Pry told reporters in April that the procedure was done at that time with the hope Drones would be ready to roll for fall camp. He missed 4 of the team’s final 5 games last season with an injury, and Watson stepped in to replace him. A foot issue was the concern then. It’s not immediately clear if that is still bothering Drones now.
We don’t definitively know who the quarterback will be. The offensive line is remade. The skill positions are revamped. The defense is completely new. And there are 2 new play-callers on both sides of the ball. No one has any clue what Virginia Tech will look like.
But Tech was better than its record indicated last season, and SP+ has the Hokies sitting 46th in the latest update. Connelly’s system projected an average of 6.6 wins for Pry’s squad.
The delta between the floor and the ceiling for this team is massive. When that’s the case, I’m taking a risk on plus value. The Hokies don’t face Clemson in the regular season and most of their big ACC games come at home. A couple of early-season games against SEC competition could prove challenging, or maybe Virginia Tech catches one of them by surprise.
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