The Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing player storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week is:
Should the Oilers have upgraded their goaltending at the deadline? Johnston struggling since opening round Panthers well insulated with Lundell Hurricanes need to avoid shenanigansStuart Skinner, Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s brilliance was on full display in Game 1 against the Dallas Stars. The pair were dominating in the offensive zone and combined for a beautiful Draisaitl goal that got the Oilers off and running. McDavid and Draisaitl ultimately combined for five points and staked Edmonton to a 3-1 third-period lead. When the final buzzer sounded, though, the Stars won 6-3.
There was plenty of blame to go around for the shocking finish. The Oilers took a bunch of penalties and couldn’t get a kill, allowing three power-play goals to a Dallas team that was pouring it on. More importantly, they couldn’t get a save. You certainly can’t fault Stuart Skinner for all the goals, but not getting a critical stop to bail out the team has been a common theme for the Oilers in the McDavid and Draisaitl era.
Skinner had a pair of shutouts to close out the Vegas Golden Knights, but his other four playoff starts have been rough. He’s allowed 20 goals in his four other outings and has a brutal .872 save percentage in the post-season, forcing the Oilers to turn to backup Calvin Pickard early in the playoffs. Pickard performed admirably and went 6-0 in relief of Skinner, but only managed an .888 save percentage. Many of those Oilers victories were due to overcoming Pickard’s play and not because of it.
You can win a Stanley Cup with subpar goaltending, though it’s extremely rare. Darcy Kuemper had a save percentage of .902 when the Colorado Avalanche won it all in 2022, which was the worst mark of any Cup-winning goalie since Grant Fuhr in 1988. Skinner and Pickard are still miles away from that number. Even with a really talented team that boasts McDavid and Draisaitl, goaltending that shaky is really tough to overcome all the way to a Cup.
The Oilers have never truly invested in goaltending while McDavid and Draisaitl have been in their primes. Beyond Skinner and Pickard, the Oilers have gone with Jack Campbell, Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen over the past five post-seasons. Whether it’s been cap constraints, not having the right assets to acquire someone or simply a lack of available options, Edmonton has never properly addressed its issue between the pipes.
There definitely was a chance to upgrade this season, but the Oilers decided to pass. John Gibson was available, though his injury history perhaps scared Edmonton off. Mackenzie Blackwood really stabilized a struggling Avalanche crease and he appears to be a great fit there. Florida ended up moving the promising Spencer Knight to Chicago, which could have been a goalie of the future for a team like the Oilers. However, trades are easier said than done, especially with a cap situation as tight as Edmonton’s.
The Oilers brought in Jake Walman and Trent Frederic around the deadline instead and there wasn’t room for much else. Walman was a shrewd pickup in hindsight with the Mattias Ekholm injury, but there are other bad contracts on the Edmonton books that have prevented them from bolstering their netminding. Jeff Skinner has been a healthy scratch since Game 1 of the playoffs and Viktor Arvidsson has been the odd man out since Game 3 against Vegas. The pair accounts for a combined $7 million against the cap, space that could’ve been used to find a better goalie.
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However, it’s easy to see how the Oilers could’ve been fooled into thinking their goaltending was good enough. They got to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final last year with Skinner and he has been solid for stretches in the post-season. Last spring, Skinner had a .947 save percentage in Games 4, 5 and 6 against Dallas in the Western Conference Final. Then in the Cup Final, he posted a .935 across Games 4, 5, 6 and 7, as Edmonton almost pulled off a miraculous comeback against the Panthers. Skinner typically hasn’t been nearly as strong to start a series, though, and his erratic play is hard to trust. That’s been evident again this year, with a pair of shutouts sandwiched in between four brutal starts.
In a hard cap system, we’re seeing more and more teams try to save money on goaltending based on the volatility of the position year over year. Some teams are hesitant to invest heavily in net when they see others getting great play between the pipes from guys on bargain contracts, but it’s a tricky road to navigate. The Oilers themselves made that mistake a few years ago, signing Campbell to a lucrative deal which ended in a buyout after he struggled mightily as the starter. This year’s final four is a mixed bag in that regard, as the Oilers and Carolina Hurricanes don’t have a ton of cap dollars tied up in goal, while Dallas will feel the squeeze next year when Jake Oettinger’s extension kicks in. The team that defeated the Oilers last post-season is paying Sergei Bobrovsky $10 million a year and doesn’t regret it.
Regret is the key word here. The last thing the Oilers want to deal with is a juggernaut team led by two of the best players in the world that gets undone because they stuck with the status quo and didn’t address a position of need. McDavid and Draisaitl are near unstoppable on most nights and it feels inevitable that they will eventually hoist the Cup. The only person who may be able to stop them isn’t on an opposing team, but standing behind them in the Oilers’ crease.
Wyatt Johnston, Dallas Stars
Wyatt Johnston has been a stellar playoff performer in his brief career, which is why it’s so perplexing to see him struggle the way he has recently.
The Stars forward has just one point since the opening round of the playoffs and is a remarkably bad minus-15 for the playoffs. Yes, plus/minus isn’t the best stat and Johnston was a minus-5 in one game against the Colorado Avalanche, but it’s a stunning development from a player who’s a plus-22 for his career. He’s seen his ice time drop slightly, too. Johnston played more than 20 minutes four times against Colorado but has only eclipsed that mark once since.
Even with the addition of Mikko Rantanen, Dallas still relies on its depth and scoring by committee. Rantanen has been excellent in these playoffs but 14 of his 20 points came in one four-game stretch and he hasn’t been as impactful for the other 10 games. That’s where Dallas needs players like Johnston to fill the void and he typically has for the Stars in previous post-seasons. Johnston had 14 career playoff goals heading into the spring and added another three in the first round, so it’s critically important he finds his scoring touch again soon.
Edmonton is a formidable foe and you can expect McDavid and Draisaitl to fill up the scoresheet every night. There are going to be some games where the Stars have to match them goal for goal and the only way they can do it is if Johnston chips in. The Oilers aren’t nearly as deep up front as Dallas, so I wonder if it may make sense to drop Johnston back down to a third-line centre role to give him a more favourable matchup to see if that can get him going.
I don’t think there’s any reason to panic where Johnston is concerned, though it’s a good reminder that he just turned 22. Johnston has looked so polished that sometimes we think he’s more experienced than he is. I’m sure he’ll figure things out soon and this will ultimately be just a very small growing pain in what should be a long, fruitful career.
Anton Lundell, Florida Panthers
There are many reasons why the Florida Panthers have proven to be the toughest out in the playoffs over the past three seasons. Florida’s aggressive play, timely scoring and excellent goaltending separate them from the rest, but there’s probably one thing that isn’t being discussed enough when describing the Panthers’ greatness.
The depth the Panthers possess gives them a massive edge come the post-season and there is no better evidence of that when it comes to Anton Lundell. Florida has an embarrassment of riches down the middle of the ice and has a luxury of employing Lundell on the third line, if you can call it that. The trio of Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen and newly acquired Brad Marchand have dominated all post-season and you could argue they’ve been the Panthers’ best line this spring.
That group was matched up against Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies for significant stretches in Florida’s second-round matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs and allowed just one goal against that group for the entire series. If you take a look at Lundell’s line over the course of the entire playoffs the numbers look even better. In 13 playoff games heading into Thursday night, the Lundell line has outscored the opposition 11-2.
Lundell has developed into a major asset for the Panthers and he’s going to give them a lot of flexibility going forward, too. Florida has a few key pending UFAs that may be difficult to sign in Sam Bennett, Marchand and Aaron Ekblad, so Lundell at least insulates them if they can’t bring Bennett back. Lundell is making only $5 million for another five seasons, so he could easily slide into a second-line centre role for a potentially departing Bennett and the Panthers would still be in a good spot.
It’s also important to note Lundell is still only 23, which is five years younger than Bennett. The Panthers may not be comfortable committing $7 million or $8 million a season on a long-term contract that Bennett would likely command on the open market when they have Lundell waiting in the wings. A Bennett deal may not age well so instead the Panthers could opt to spend that money on trying to retain either Marchand or Ekblad, or simply look for other value deals in free agency.
Florida lost a handful of players after winning the Stanley Cup but they are arguably even deeper now than they were last year. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Brandon Montour left last summer so they simply elevated Niko Mikkola and added Seth Jones without upsetting their salary structure. Now if Bennett doesn’t re-sign, Lundell will be able to step up as a younger, cheaper option.
You have to give the Panthers a lot of credit for staying one step ahead of the curve.
Shayne Gostisbehere and Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina Hurricanes
It didn’t take long for Marchand to make his presence felt in the Eastern Conference Final.
Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere found out firsthand how much of a pest Marchand can be, as he lost his cool following an attempted hit by the former Bruins captain. Gostisbehere ended up firing a puck at Marchand in the neutral zone and a melee ensued, where Marchand dropped his gloves and went after Gostisbehere. The Hurricanes ended up on the right side of things when all was sorted out, as Marchand received a pair of roughing penalties and a 10-minute misconduct, but it’s a dangerous game to play. It’s easy to lose your composure against the Panthers and if Carolina can’t keep its cool, it’s going to hurt them in the long run.
As tough as the Panthers are, they are excellent at playing on the edge without going over it. Ask the Maple Leafs, who ended up giving up 23 power plays in the last round and only earning 20, as the Panthers ultimately won the special teams battle with four goals on the man advantage compared to Toronto’s two. Where the Leafs had their best success was when they simply played structured and patient, and avoided scrums and shenanigans.
It was also clear Carolina was trying to do its best to crash the crease and get Bobrovsky off his game. Andrei Svechnikov collided with Bobrovsky in one of those accidentally-on-purpose plays and while it’s good to make things tough on the goaltender, it’s out of character for Carolina to go this route and may only entice Florida to become more engaged physically. Then in Game 2, Svechnikov took a foolish penalty for punching Matthew Tkachuk in the back of the head and the Panthers capitalized for a goal.
If you give the Panthers too many power-play opportunities you’re eventually going to get burned, and there is no tougher team to play from behind against than Florida. They’re able to lean into their forecheck and the Panthers can make it extremely difficult for the opposition to enter the offensive zone when protecting a lead. Florida was 2-for-3 on the power play in Game 1 and their second goal on the man advantage put them up 4-1, a virtual insurmountable lead against a team like the Panthers. They added two more power-play goals in Game 2. If Carolina continues to go out of their way to try and beat the Panthers at their own game, it’s not likely to end well. It’s a battle you can’t win.
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