ROCHESTER, N.Y. — One of the most hazardous weather effects that Western New York can experience is floods. When we have excessive rain, water levels can rise and overflow, leading to damage to homes, businesses, and infrastructure. In extreme scenarios, it can even pose a risk to human life. So, how do we track water levels across the area and how do we predict when a flood may occur?
The answer lies in flood gauges and weather models. There’s a massive network of flood gauges across the country placed in strategic locations that keep track of water levels in creeks, streams, rivers, reservoirs, and tidal basins. We use these gauges to see what the water level is at, how quickly it is changing, and to estimate what the downstream effects may be.
Weather models can help us to predict where and how much rain will fall and how quickly it will accumulate. This feeds into water prediction models that take into account topography, bathymetry, and the preexisting water level and soil saturation. This way, we can see what the forecasted water level will be during and after a rain event. If the water level reaches a known flood “stage”, flood advisories or warnings may be issued.
Not all flood gauge locations have established flood stages or water level forecasts. This is where hydrological knowledge of the area and experience come into play. It’s important to know if and where flooding may occur based on where it is already happening and how bad it is. There is a lot to consider, like where tributaries meet, where the biggest elevation changes are, and a lot more. It’s a complicated process, but we wouldn’t be able to predict where floods may occur if it weren’t for essential observational tools such as flood gauges.
You can find an interactive map showing flood gauge locations, water levels, and predictions here.
First Alert Weather In-Depth: How do we know when it’s going to flood? WHEC.com.
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