Moving forward, 2024 Oregon will be a cautionary tale in the 12-team Playoff.
It’s not necessarily “cautionary” because it did anything wrong, though we can all agree that the Rose Bowl could’ve gone better. The 2024 Oregon team will be a cautionary tale because in this new era, being the clear best team in the regular season has never meant less. The Ducks were the only FBS team to enter the postseason with an undefeated record, and they did so in what was deemed the toughest conference, yet in their only Playoff game, they got run out of the stadium. Mind you, that came in a quarterfinal matchup against an Ohio State team that it already beat.
Being the best team in the regular season didn’t even get the Ducks a semifinal berth. That’s harsh. In any other era, a 13-0 Big Ten champ is at least getting to the semifinals, and it’s probably not getting a rematch in its first Playoff game.
But you know who doesn’t get any sympathy? Oregon. After all, Oregon had a seat at the Playoff table. Go ask 2023 Florida State, 2023 Georgia or 2014 TCU about not having a seat at the table. It’s brutal. It’s certainly more brutal than getting a brutal draw and ending up on the wrong side of it.
(OK, I’ll stop using the word “brutal.”)
The question for Dan Lanning is whether he can turn a cautionary tale into a national championship preamble. Based on everything that Lanning has done so far — he’s got a 35-6 record with 3 consecutive top-15 finishes — he could be on the verge of getting Oregon its first Playoff game victory since 2014.
A few things are worth noting before we break down individual Playoff paths. One is that while we’re still in the 12-team era, I’m anticipating a change in 2025. I believe that we’ll get rid of the stipulation that the 4 byes/top-4 seeds will go to the 4 highest-ranked conference champs. One year in, I predict that all parties will get on board with changing that. These rankings, which I’ll roll out over the next 2 weeks, will reflect that anticipated change.
In other words, I won’t try to confuse you with seeding. This will just be based on where they’ll show up in the final Playoff poll. Just in case you forgot what Playoff field entails, here’s a refresher:
5 highest-ranked conference champs 7 at-large teams Seeds 1-4 get a first-round bye Seeds 5-8 get a home Playoff game in the first round Seeds 9-12 get a road Playoff game in the first roundDoes that all sound good? Good.
Here’s the projected 12-team field so far:
No. 12 Boise State No. 11 Louisville No. 10 Texas Tech No. 9 Illinois No. 8 Alabama No. 7 Texas No. 6 Ohio State No. 5 Clemson No. 4 Penn State No. 3 GeorgiaLet’s continue with 2-seed Oregon:
Why the Playoff path exists
I often find myself referencing a coach’s floor in this section because getting into the 12-team field is much more about that than ceiling. Lanning’s floor is extremely high as a first-time head coach who is now 24-3 in conference play. Mind you, 2 of those conference losses were in Year 1 as a head coach. Of his 6 losses as a head coach, 4 of them came against teams who played in the national championship. His first 3 full recruiting cycles have improved each year, including most recently when his 2025 class came in at No. 2. He’s also riding 3 consecutive top-10 portal classes, and even though it’s a roster that only ranks No. 109 in FBS in percentage of returning production, both of his play-callers are at least 3 years into their respective roles.
That’s all relevant context after a year in which Oregon lost 10 players to the NFL Draft. That bested Oregon’s previous record of 8, which was in the 2024 NFL Draft. That’s a ton of NFL Draft talent gone, and as we’ll get to with the potential road block, some might assume a dip year is in store.
But part of the reason why that floor is tremendously high is because Oregon OC Will Stein just led the way for 2 quarterbacks to get to New York. Despite that offensive turnover, Dante Moore is an early Heisman Trophy contender because he figures to be in good hands (he’s also got an elite new blindside protector in Nevada transfer Isaiah World). The former UCLA transfer might not lead a top-5 offense, but there’s been such a high offensive floor that it’d be foolish to assume that a collapse is imminent.
Even if you think that regression is imminent, remember that Oregon only faces 2 teams that won at least 9 games last year and one of those games is at home against Indiana. Oregon could lose that game at Penn State — James Franklin is 4-20 vs. AP top-10 teams and his only such victories post-2016 came vs. Utah and Boise State — and still cruise to 11-1.
That might be a conservative projection for a program with 1 conference loss in the last 2 seasons combined.
The potential roadblock
This might sound a bit contradictory of what I just outlined, but it needs to be addressed. There are a ton of new starters on that offense. Yes, there’s talent that was acquired via the transfer portal — Makhi Hughes started his career with 1,300-yard seasons at Tulane before transferring to Oregon — but unlike when Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel were at the helm, Moore hasn’t dealt with moving pieces yet. At least not like Nix and Gabriel had with their constant rotating of coordinators and new weapons.
As a first-time starter (for a full season), Moore has 4 new starters on the offensive line, he’s got a new lead back in Hughes and Evan Stewart is the only returning wide receiver who had multiple receiving touchdowns last year. That’s different than the situation Moore was in as a 5-star freshman at UCLA, where he wasn’t being held to the standard that Oregon demands. That job demands that even on a bad day, you find a way to win. That’s what we saw Gabriel do last year at Wisconsin.
Moore has challenging road games at Penn State, at Iowa and at Washington. Winning at Iowa has been a tall task for elite Big Ten teams and Washington hasn’t lost a home game since the Jimmy Lake era in 2021. Half of Lanning’s losses are to Washington, albeit during the Kalen DeBoer era. Still, though. If Moore hasn’t mastered the ebbs and flows that’ll inevitably come with such a new-look offense, that game could be daunting.
Any scenario in which Oregon has a 9-3 regular season would include Moore being inconsistent and struggling in hostile road venues.
Odds that they win a Playoff game
I’m going with 50.1%.
Again, we’re 11 years removed from Oregon’s first and only Playoff win. We can’t say that it’s an 80% chance when we’re talking about a quarterfinal matchup against a team like Texas, who has a legitimate case to be the preseason No. 1 or No. 2 team in America after consecutive trips to the semifinals. Oregon knows all too well what it’s like to face a 10-2 team that misses its conference title game, but then maximizes its talent in the postseason.
Finally, however, it’s Oregon’s time to make a run.
Instead of letting Arch Manning and the explosive Longhorn offense dominate, Lanning and Tosh Lupoi dial up an elite defensive game plan that has the first-year starter flummoxed. Oregon doesn’t necessarily shred the Texas defense, but it finds the right offensive balance and takes advantage of a couple of short fields en route to a thrilling victory between a pair of preseason top-5 squads.
For the first time in the post-Marcus Mariota era, Oregon is a win away from playing for a national title.
Predicting the Playoff will continue on Thursday with No. 1 … an SEC team with sky-high expectations.
Predicting the Playoff: No. 2 Oregon Saturday Down South.
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