The Russian and US leaders were locked in a two-hour phone call on Monday, which ended with minor progress. Putin, getting out ahead of Trump, addressed the Russian media just minutes after putting the phone down to his US counterpart.
Trump, meanwhile, insisted that Russia and Ukraine would “immediately” begin ceasefire negotiations, but there was no detail on when or where such talks might take place.
Smith, now the chair of the Ukraine Forum Steering Committee at Chatham House, said the “fundamental reason” as to why Putin is refusing to engage in any meaningful peace talks is that the Russian President “still thinks that he has got the resources and the time on his side”.
Turkey chairs a meeting between Russia and Ukraine at the Dolmabahce Presidential Office in Istanbul, which resulted in no breakthrough (Photo: Murat Gok/Anadolu via Getty)
The White House struck a deal for access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals last month following the spectacular Oval Office blowup between the two leaders, where Trump grew frustrated with how much aid the US had given to Kyiv.
Putin, whose forces control a fifth of Ukraine and are advancing, has stood firm on his conditions for ending the war, including the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the four Ukrainian regions Russia claims.
Without bolstered US aid, “Putin probably thinks he’s still got a good chance to come out on top if he carries on the sort of strategy of attritional incremental gains,” Smith said.
Trump likes Putin more than Zelensky
“One of the many things that ghastly meeting in the White House with Zelensky told us was that Trump still hates Zelensky for not cooperating with him in 2019,” Smith explained.
Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump in a tense meeting in the Oval Office in February (Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty)
“On the surface it looks as if some of that relationship [between Trump and Zelensky] may have been repaired,” Smith said. “But I think these things go pretty deep with Trump, and Putin is just more his kind of guy.
Putin is also “taking a risk” with Trump that he will not proceed with plans to double sanctions on Russia, which would be “pretty bad news” for Moscow, Smith said.
Brussels and London both signalled they have not given up hope of persuading Washington to act.
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“Putin’s got a choice to make as to whether he really believes that Trump means it when he says [he would impose new sanctions], and/or that Trump is going to be so cross with him for not playing his game and not helping Trump’s effort to win the Nobel Peace Prize that Trump turns nasty on him.
Putin suspects Trump will grow tired
Despite discussions with the US over possible peace talks, Russia has continued strikes on Ukraine.
The former ambassador said the continued attacks on Ukraine likely act as a signal from Putin to say to Trump: “You’re going to have to make this sound more attractive to me, and I’m not going to sit around while you think about how to do this. I’m going to get on with pursuing the war.”
“That would suit Putin because he doesn’t believe that anyone is going to fill the gap” left by the US if Trump removed himself from peace talks and any involvement with Ukraine.
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