We need to talk about it more. Starting off as the No. 1 team in America is a unique beast in college football, and we’ve got 2 decades worth of data to support that. In 19 of the last 20 years, the preseason No. 1 team in the AP Poll failed to win a national title. The only team who overcame that was 2017 Alabama, who got into the College Football Playoff without a conference title and won the national championship after it overcame a double-digit deficit with a walk-off overtime touchdown thanks to the best mid-game quarterback switch in college football history.
Sorry, Georgia fans. I didn’t mean to start off on such a grim note.
But UGA knows as well as anyone that starting off as the No. 1 team in the country doesn’t make for a smooth road to glory. The Dawgs weren’t the preseason No. 1 team in 2021-22 when they repeated, but the last 2 years, they earned that preseason honor … only to miss the semifinals in both years (that’s true even if you felt 2023 UGA deserved to be there).
From 2005-24, UGA was the preseason No. 1 team 3 times, none of which even played for a national title. Here’s a breakdown of the 19 teams who are responsible for that dubious 21st-century stat:
Alabama, 6 Georgia, 3 USC, 3 Clemson, 2 Ohio State, 2 Florida, 1 Florida State, 1 Oklahoma, 1So why bring that up? Well, Georgia’s path to the Playoff in 2025 won’t include a preseason No. 1 ranking because it doesn’t rank in the top 100 in percentage of returning production, it has a new starting quarterback in Gunner Stockton and last year’s humbling loss to national runner-up Notre Dame ended the 2024 campaign on a sour note. That’s why the Dawgs are only 3rd in the preseason national title odds.
But for a program with 8 consecutive top-7 finishes, that’s hardly a roadblock to the 12-team Playoff.
A few things are worth noting before we break down individual Playoff paths. One is that while we’re still in the 12-team era, I’m anticipating a change in 2025. I believe that we’ll get rid of the stipulation that the 4 byes/top-4 seeds will go to the 4 highest-ranked conference champs. One year in, I predict that all parties will get on board with changing that. These rankings, which I’ll roll out over the next 2 weeks, will reflect that anticipated change.
In other words, I won’t try to confuse you with seeding. This will just be based on where they’ll show up in the final Playoff poll. Just in case you forgot what Playoff field entails, here’s a refresher:
5 highest-ranked conference champs 7 at-large teams Seeds 1-4 get a first-round bye Seeds 5-8 get a home Playoff game in the first round Seeds 9-12 get a road Playoff game in the first roundDoes that all sound good? Good.
Here’s the projected 12-team field so far:
No. 12 Boise State No. 11 Louisville No. 10 Texas Tech No. 9 Illinois No. 8 Alabama No. 7 Texas No. 6 Ohio State No. 5 Clemson No. 4 Penn StateLet’s continue with 3-seed Georgia:
Why the Playoff path exists
Have I mentioned that Kirby Smart has 8 consecutive top-7 finishes in the AP Poll? I have? OK, I’ll come up with something new here.
Let’s go with a multiple-choice question. Which one of these things is true about Georgia since 2017?
A) 47-1 at Sanford Stadium B) Played in 7 of last 8 SEC Championship Games C) 62-1 (0.984) vs. unranked opponents & 35-13 (0.729) vs. ranked opponents D) 0 regular seasons with 3 losses E) All the aboveIt’s “E.” It’s always “E.”
If this were still the 4-team era, that would be a flimsy argument for UGA finishing as a top-4 team in the final Playoff poll. But that shows you what a tremendously high floor the Dawgs have had the last 8 seasons and why even a daunting schedule still has a clear Playoff path.
Let’s also remember that Georgia has just 3 true road games on the entire 2025 slate. Those games are against Tennessee, who hasn’t beaten UGA since the “Dobbsnail Boot” game in 2016, and Auburn and Mississippi State, neither of whom made a bowl game last year. Seven home games, 3 true road games and 2 neutral-site games that are within driving distance is about as manageable as a Playoff contender can ask for, at least in terms of location. It’s a different feel than last year when UGA played true road games at Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss, who combined to finish 32-10 last year.
Yes, UGA is in need of some help at the edge-rusher spots in a post-Mykel Williams/Jalon Walker world, and we shouldn’t diminish the need for Noah Thomas and Zachariah Branch to revamp a group of pass-catchers that led the nation in drops. That group has to be better for Stockton than it was for Carson Beck. We also need to see Mike Bobo find better first-half game plans, and Glenn Schumann has to address UGA’s atypical struggles defending the run. All of those questions — among others — need to be answered.
But if you can’t see Georgia’s Playoff path in 2025, you’ve got your eyes closed.
The potential roadblock
The only way that this Georgia team will miss the Playoff is if disaster strikes in the form of a 2-2 start, and that might not even be enough to keep the Dawgs out of the field. Let me explain.
A 2-2 start in this scenario would include a loss at Tennessee. How would that happen? Stockton’s first career true road start shows his inexperience. Tennessee DC Tim Banks dials up pressures that get home against a new-look Georgia offensive line, and without an established offensive identity yet, the Dawgs panic in the late moments of a low-scoring game in Knoxville.
Instead of regrouping with a bye week before the Alabama showdown at home, it has the opposite effect. Georgia’s offense lacks confidence. Even with the promising backfield duo of Nate Frazier and Josh McCray, Georgia’s offensive line can’t create enough holes and it becomes far too Stockton-reliant. The Alabama defense smells blood in the water, and a year removed from forcing Beck into a disastrous first half, it again forces key turnovers in a thriller that goes the Tide’s way. That would drop Smart to 1-7 vs. Alabama, which would prompt all sorts of late-September questions about if UGA’s time atop the sport is over.
A 2-2 start would start the discussions about if UGA has any losses to give to make the Playoff. Maybe it would, but if it didn’t, could Georgia go unscathed with games at Auburn, vs. Ole Miss, vs. Florida (in Jacksonville), vs. Texas and against Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz? I wouldn’t like those odds.
Handing Georgia a crooked number in the loss column in September will be essential in any scenario in which the Dawgs are left out of the 12-team field.
Odds that they win a Playoff game
I know that 55% would sound low, but keep a few things in mind. If UGA does get the 3-seed, we’re not talking about hosting a home Playoff game. We’re likely talking about a neutral-site game against a 6-seed, which I’m projecting as Ohio State. The Dawgs would have to contain Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, which could be as tough of a task as there is in 2025. There’s a world in which that duo, along with new expected QB1 Julian Sayin, expose a Georgia secondary that’s got more questions that we’re used to seeing under Smart.
But for the life of me, I cannot imagine Smart failing to reach the semifinals in 3 consecutive years. It’s strange to think that would match the 2018-20 stretch. Obviously, it’s a bit different when we’re talking about it coming after repeating as national champs as opposed to losing on an overtime walk-off in the title game and preserving the 1980 jokes. Nobody is saying that UGA would be outside of that top tier in the sport. It’s just relevant context after the Dawgs began the 2020s looking like the superior force in the sport.
Georgia is trying to win its first Playoff game since 65-7 happened. An upset-hungry Ohio State team nearly stood in the way of that repeat bid in the 2022 Peach Bowl.
This time, it’s the Dawgs who end the Buckeyes’ repeat bid.
Predicting the Playoff will continue on Wednesday with No. 2 … a Big Ten juggernaut.
Predicting the 2025 Playoff: No. 3 Georgia Saturday Down South.
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