Ahead of Wednesday’s UEFA Europa League final between Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, we identify seven key elements that could be decisive in Bilbao.
All eyes turn to San Mamés in Bilbao on Wednesday night as two of England’s biggest clubs compete in the 2024-25 UEFA Europa League final. It’s Tottenham vs Manchester United, not only for a piece of major European silverware, but also a spot in next season’s UEFA Champions League.
Both teams have endured thoroughly disappointing domestic campaigns, with the two clubs already confirming their worst Premier League finishes of all time. This is a game that could mean they finish their season on a high, however.
Here, we’ve outlined five facets that may impact whether the Europa League trophy returns to Old Trafford or heads to north London…
Fourth Time Lucky for United?
Manchester United have lost competitive games against 12 different opponents in 2024-25, but they must be particularly sick of facing Tottenham.
Spurs have won all three of their meetings with United in all competitions this season, twice in the Premier League (3-0 away, 1-0 home) and once in the League Cup (4-3 at home).
The only opponents Spurs have ever won four games against in a single campaign were Manchester City in 1992-93, while the only side to beat the Red Devils four times in a single season were Everton in 1985-86.
Making a strong start will be key to potential United success. Across their three encounters already in 2024-25, Spurs have taken the lead inside 15 minutes in each game.
United haven’t really given themselves a chance, either. They haven’t led for a single second across any of their three matches versus Spurs this season. Over a total of 295 minutes and 41 seconds of playing time in these fixtures (including added time), Tottenham have led for 226 minutes and 42 seconds – that’s 90.2% of game time.
They have come from behind to win just six of their 58 games in 2024-25, with four of those in front of a raucous Old Trafford crowd, and two coming against the lowest-ranked Premier League sides (Southampton and Ipswich).
Even if Spurs take the lead again in this final, and despite United’s relatively poor record at turning games around in 2024-25, it won’t mean it’s game over.
Just four clubs have dropped more points from winning positions than Tottenham (26) in the Premier League this season, while only Brentford (52) top that tally in the competition since the start of 2023-24 when Ange Postecoglou arrived at the club.
Man Utd have never gone seven successive matches without a win against Spurs, and they’ve also never lost four consecutive meetings with them. Victory in Bilbao on Wednesday would be the perfect way to end that unwelcome sequence, even if they have to do it the hard way.
Whoever Wins the Europa League Will Create History
Both Man Utd and Spurs have had historically dismal league campaigns.
Based on three points for a win, 2024-25 is already guaranteed to yield Man Utd’s lowest points tally in a league season since at least 1973-74, and should they fail to beat Aston Villa on the final day, it will be their worst total since 1930-31 (29).
Spurs have won just 38 points from 37 league matches in 2024-25, and unless they win on the final day of the season versus Brighton, it’ll be their second-worst league campaign in history after 1914-15 (36 points, based on three points for a win). They’ve now lost 25 games in all competitions this term, their joint-most defeats in a single season in their history along with 1991-92 (25).
Going into the final day of the Premier League campaign this weekend, United and Spurs sit in 16th and 17th place respectively in the table – the lowest positions possible without being relegated.
Had it not been for the three promoted sides struggling to win points after coming up from the Championship, the unthinkable may have happened and one of these huge English clubs could have dropped into the second tier.
But now, some redemption is possible for one of them, as they will end the season with a European trophy and secure a place in the Champions League for 2025-26.
Whoever wins the Europa League final will set a new record for being the lowest-ranked side in their domestic league campaign to win a major European trophy.
None of the previous 177 winners of an edition of the European Cup/Champions League, UEFA Cup/Inter-Cities Fairs Cup/Europa League, the Cup Winners’ Cup or the Conference League have ever finished lower than 14th in their domestic league that season – a record currently held by West Ham United when they won the 2022-23 Conference League and finished 14th in the Premier League.
In this competition (including when it was the UEFA Cup), it’s Inter Milan who hold the record for the lowest league finish while winning the trophy. They finished 13th in Serie A in 1993-94 but also beat Austrian side SV Casino Salzburg 2-0 over two legs in the UEFA Cup final.
Where Will Tottenham’s Creativity Come From?
Under Postecoglou, Spurs have clearly had plenty of problems, but nobody can accuse them of having any issues with creating chances. In the Premier League this season, despite being set for a frankly unthinkable 17th-place finish, only four teams have scored more non-penalty goals than them (61) and only six teams have generated more non-penalty expected goals (55.3 xG).
But they head into the final in Bilbao facing a unique problem: all three of their best players in the advanced midfield position are out through injury.
In James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski, Spurs are without two of the best creators in their squad, with those two ranking first (78) and third (50) for open-play chances created in all competitions this season. While Lucas Bergvall doesn’t play the final ball anything like as much as Maddison and Kulusevski, in his first season in high-level European football he became a key player for Spurs in the last few months in particular with how he helped progress play through the centre of the pitch. His absence is most certainly going to be felt, too.
Spurs will line up without all three of them for only the third time this season, having done so in the 2-2 draw with Bournemouth in March (when both Bergvall and Maddison came off the bench) and in Friday night’s 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa. Working out where their creativity will come from in the absence of those three players is a tricky issue to resolve.
A likely midfield three of Yves Bissouma, Rodrigo Bentancur and Pape Sarr will protect the defence and keep the ball well enough but there isn’t much in the way of vision and passing to unlock the United defence.
Spurs may therefore pose their biggest threat best on the transition, with pace in abundance whoever starts in the front three. Meanwhile, right-back Pedro Porro, who ranks fourth in the squad for assists in all competitions this season (nine), will need to get forward at every opportunity. The return of captain Son Heung-min to fitness will also help, with Son leading the way in the squad in open play for both assists (11, level with Kulusevski) and xG assisted (9.5).
Whether that will be enough could have a huge impact on who wins this final.
Can United Be More Clinical in Front of Goal?
European finals are not typically decided by much.
In the Champions League, Real Madrid’s 2-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund last season followed four consecutive finals decided by 1-0 results. In the Europa League, three of the last four finals have gone to penalties. And all three of the Conference League finals to date have been decided by one-goal margins.
These are tight, finely-balanced matches, often determined by small moments. That’s why clinical finishing is crucial, and the data suggests Tottenham have the personnel best equipped to capitalise on those fine margins.
The two sides have had wildly different fortunes in front of goal this season. In the Premier League, Spurs’ shot conversion rate of 12.8% is the sixth highest in the division. United’s is way down at 8.4%, the second lowest behind only Southampton, who are one of the poorest teams in the competition’s history. For context, the competition average for the season is 11.3%.
Excluding own goals, Spurs have scored 60 times from an xG total of 57.7 in the Premier League. That means they’ve scored 2.3 more goals than expected, a positive enough differential to put them seventh highest in the league.
Conversely, United have scored just 40 times (excluding own goals) from an xG total of 50.5. That’s an underperformance of 10.5 – only Crystal Palace (-13.9) have performed worse in front of goal.
Even if you add in Europa League numbers – where Manchester United have found scoring a lot easier – the Red Devils are still in the negative column for their xG differential (-7.9). Spurs still perform above expected (+6.1).
Given the top-line numbers, this won’t be particularly surprising, but of Manchester United players to have taken more than 25 shots in the league this season, only Amad Diallo (7 goals from 4.3 xG) has scored more than his underlying chances suggest he ‘should’ have done. Spurs have five players who’ve done that.
Granted, two of those players in Maddison and Kulusevski won’t be available for this game. But Son, despite a disappointing campaign to date, is certainly capable of producing high-quality moments. The South Korean is one of those rare players who has consistently outperformed his xG over the course of his career, with an exceptional ability to finish with either foot. Brennan Johnson – Spurs’ top scorer in the league – is another who’s put his chances away with impressive efficiency.
With an out-of-sorts Rasmus Højlund expected to lead the line, and the whole team generally misfiring in attack, it just doesn’t feel like Man Utd have the same profile in front of goal.
Bruno Fernandes: The Europa League King
Manchester United have become reliant on Bruno Fernandes since he signed from Sporting CP five and a half years ago. That reliance has arguably grown season by season, and he’ll prove absolutely key to any potential United success in this final.
The Europa League is his competition. No other player can really stake a claim to have impressed more in the competition since it began in 2009 following decades as the UEFA Cup.
Only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (34) and Radamel Falcao (30) have scored more goals in the Europa League than Fernandes (27), but it’s the Portuguese who leads the all-time competition rankings since 2009 for assists (19) and total goal involvements (46).
Dries Mertens – who has played 16 more games in the Europa League than the Man Utd captain – is the only man to have created more chances in the competition than Fernandes, both overall (185 vs 158) and from open play (129 vs 110).
Fernandes is a big-game player, so it doesn’t come as much surprise that his record in the knockout stages of the Europa League is exceptional.
He’s been involved in 32 goals in 33 knockout-stage appearances, again more than any other player, with 19 goals (second most) and 13 assists (the most). He also leads the way for total chances created in Europa League knockout matches (94).
He captained United in the 2021 final against Villarreal but failed to have much impact, not creating a single chance for his teammates in 120 minutes before scoring his penalty in the shootout. That eventually ended in defeat, so Fernandes will be out to make amends on Wednesday.
A Tale of Two (Erratic) Goalkeepers?
André Onana and Guglielmo Vicario are coming to the end of their second seasons in England, and it’s fair to describe them both as having had a mixed time of things since moving to the Premier League.
Onana has consistently made mistakes of all sorts for United, while Vicario struggled terribly last season at set-pieces. They are both very good goalkeepers, though, and have the potential to be match-winners or match-losers in Bilbao.
Among players at Premier League teams in 2024-25, only Brighton’s Bart Verbruggen (six) has been responsible for more errors leading to goals in all competitions than Onana (five). Some of that is down to his erratic shot-stopping, which can be very, very good or woeful, but he also isn’t helped by having defenders ahead of him who aren’t good enough on the ball to receive some of his riskier passes. He is rightly very confident in his passing ability, but that can lead to him playing passes that his teammates don’t expect or are not ready for.
Errors are less common for Vicario – he has committed four fewer in his two seasons at Spurs (one) than Onana has in 2024-25 alone – but he also hasn’t always inspired total confidence. It was a consistent sight, particularly last season, to see him crowded out at corners, letting in a goal and then remonstrating with the referee for a free-kick that was never going to be awarded. Also, he can look uncomfortable and unconvincing with his passing.
However, he regularly makes huge saves to deny near-certain goals, and Spurs missed him terribly when he was out injured. He ranks among the best Premier League goalkeepers for goals prevented through their saves in all competitions this season, having prevented more than four goals.
The goalkeepers could make or break their respective team’s chances of glory.
Can Spurs’ ‘New’ Defence Stand Strong?
Tottenham’s defence isn’t ‘new’ in terms of personnel – the first-choice back four and goalkeeper have remained the same for Postecoglou’s whole Spurs tenure – but it is new in that they are now, seemingly at least, actually quite solid.
They haven’t been anything like solid in the Premier League, where they have all but given up for weeks now. But when Porro, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven and Destiny Udogie have started together ahead of Vicario in the knockout stages of the Europa League, Spurs have looked uncharacteristically formidable at the back.
There has been less of the all-action, high-pressing, gung-ho Angeball football for which Postecoglou is known, and instead a more considered, defensive-minded and controlled game (this is something we’ve covered in more depth here).
Spurs conceded just two goals in their four quarter-final and semi-final games, and in those matches recorded genuinely impressive defensive numbers, with three of their best four xG against totals in any competition all season. In their two legs against Bodø/Glimt, they conceded chances worth just 0.26 xG and 0.43 xG, while at home to Eintracht Frankfurt, their opponents generated only 0.36 xG.
With their first-choice back five starting, and a better structure in place to ensure the defence is not exposed as much as we have grown used to seeing during Postecoglou’s reign, Tottenham are much, much tougher to break down.
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