“When it is actually your councillors losing their seats, it suddenly becomes very real,” one senior Tory MP said in the wake of that bloodbath, which saw Reform UK win control of 10 county councils as the Conservatives picked up less than one in five votes.
For the first time, some lifelong Tories are genuinely wondering whether their party will survive as a genuine contender for power.
Another insider, who worked for the last government, said: “The odds are shortening on us living through the end of the Conservative party. I still don’t think that’s odds-on, but it seems more likely after the local elections.”
Veterans from the Truss and Johnson eras think the end could be nigh for their party. (Photo: Reuters)‘Kemi’s invisible – some voters think she’s a bloke’
“They don’t seem to have realised yet they’re in a life or death struggle against Reform,” the ex aide continued. “Kemi is invisible. I saw some focus groups recently in red wall seats – her name recognition was zero and some people thought she was a bloke!”
Some Tories fear their leader Kemi Badenoch is not cutting through (Photo: Jacob King/PA)
“I think she is doing a good job herself, but the Conservative party itself is doing a terrible job,” an ex-MP said. “I blame the MPs. The majority of MPs are doing sweet FA to bang the drum for the Tory party.”
Robert Jenrick, who ran Badenoch close in the leadership election and is now shadow Justice Secretary, is often named as the most vigorous voice pushing the Tory message on the airwaves, in Parliament and at the grass roots. “Jenrick is showing her how it’s done,” a source said.
Tory insiders fear they losing donors to Reform UK which is on ‘upward spiral’ following recent electoral success (Photo by Lia Toby/Getty Images)
Another Tory insider added: “It’s a negative spiral for us, and an upwards spiral for Reform. Right-wing donors see that we’re falling behind, so they are donating to Reform instead. Councillors risk leaving us and joining Reform. The brightest young people on the right are leaning to Reform… I don’t think enough Tory MPs are thinking about the existential Reform problem.”
Electoral system could soon flip to boost Farage
John Major in the early hours of 2 May 1997 as general election results were revealing a Tory disaster. Badenoch points to the party’s long 13 year road back to power after that defeat to illustrate the size of her task today (Photo: STR/AFP via Getty Images)
Badenoch says that she accepts the herculean task ahead of her, pointing out that all three of the last governments to be ejected from power – Labour in 2010, the Conservatives in 1997 and Labour in 1979 – took more than a decade to return. Her strategy for capturing the public’s attention is to press on the frailties of Labour without going too far in setting out a detailed alternative vision when voters are not yet ready to start listening again.
Kemi Badenoch speaks at last year’s Conservative Party Conference. The party’s HQ is hoping she will have some eye-catching announcements at this year’s in October. (Photo Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire)
After a chaotic few months which saw donations dry up and rounds of staff redundancies at the party’s headquarters, sources close to Badenoch say she has steadied the ship. Computer game tycoon Jez San, a former Labour supporter, has given £2m to the Conservatives this year, and three new employees have been hired to work on the party’s policy programme with a view to making eye-catching announcements at the annual Tory conference in October.
‘We are not complacent about the threat we face’
A source close to Badenoch told The i Paper: “We are not complacent about the threat we face in these unprecedented political times. Kemi has a mandate from members to renew the Conservative party from top to bottom and that work is underway.
Forcing Labour to water down Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson’s Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill, has been one recent Tory success (PhotoHouse of Commons/UK Parliament/PA Wire)
The Conservatives have scored some hits off Labour, including forcing them to water down clauses in the controversial Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill which would have made it harder for academies to pay top teachers more, and the party has delighted in the Government’s struggles. But one shadow minister suggested that these have had a double edge: “Labour have imploded too quickly for the Tories, because nobody is going to start voting Tory for a couple of years.”
‘BoJo is gearing up to have another crack’
Former prime minister Boris Johnson is seen by some Tories as a potential saviour (Photo: Ritzau Scanpix/Bo Amstrup via REUTERS)
“I think the best chance we would have is if BoJo came back, but I don’t think he will,” said one ally. There are certainly obstacles: not only the fact that he would have to fight and win a Commons by-election to become leader, but also that he is attracting increasing blame for the surge in immigration levels which has helped to fuel the rise of Reform – it is known as “the Boriswave” by sections of the online right.
Another source who has worked with Johnson told The i Paper: “They don’t really have anyone to replace Kemi – unless Boris is available. He’s definitely gearing up to have a crack at it.”
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