We’re now a little over a quarter of the way through the 2025 regular season. With Memorial Day fast approaching, it’s hard for struggling teams to continue arguing that it’s still early. That isn’t to say playoff positions are set in stone, of course; on this day last year, the Cubs were firmly in playoff position while the Mets club that eventually made it all the way to the NLCS was still three games under .500. If the season ended today, the Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Padres, Phillies, and Giants would be your playoff teams in the National League this year.
With four-and-a-half months left in the baseball calendar, which team currently outside of that group has the best chance of breaking their way into the mix? Yesterday’s poll covering the American League was won by the Red Sox (25%), who narrowly bested both the Rangers (20%) and Astros (20%) in a tight contest. Here’s a look at a few of NL’s the options, listed in order of record entering play today:
St. Louis Cardinals (24-20)
The Cardinals essentially left their roster untouched outside of the departure of veterans like Paul Goldschmidt and Kyle Gibson over the offseason. Right-hander Phil Maton was the club’s only major league free agent signing. Running back last year’s 83-win team without its former MVP first baseman didn’t do much for the Cardinals’ projections, but a recent nine-game win streak has allowed St. Louis to change the narrative. Willson Contreras has started hitting again, Masyn Winn could be breaking out, and Matthew Liberatore is making the decision to move him to the rotation look wise. If the Cards can keep playing anything close to this well, thoughts of selling Ryan Helsley at the deadline are likely to vanish before the calendar flips to July.
Arizona Diamondbacks (23-21)
The fourth team in a crowded four-team NL West race, the Diamondbacks have held their own this year despite injuries plaguing superstar Ketel Marte and the loss of A.J. Puk from an already-leaky bullpen. Corbin Burnes has delivered a sub-3.00 ERA despite shaky peripherals, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt look like solid mid-rotation pieces, and Corbin Carroll is a superstar. If Zac Gallen (4.59 ERA) and Eduardo Rodriguez (7.07 ERA) can even pitch close to their respective 3.91 FIP and 4.30 FIP marks, Arizona should be a real threat to reach the postseason.
Atlanta Braves (22-22)
That Atlanta finds itself even in this conversation after going 0-7 to start the year is an impressive feat. The tandem of Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin behind the plate has been a sensational one, and AJ Smith-Shawver is turning into a potential front-of-the-rotation surprise alongside Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach. With a .500 record despite getting just one start from Spencer Strider and zero plate appearances from Ronald Acuna Jr. so far, it’s not hard to imagine the Braves fighting their way into the playoffs by season’s end. For that to happen, players like Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies will need to start hitting while closer Raisel Iglesias (5.71 ERA) will need to turn things around or be replaced by someone who can more consistently nail down save opportunities.
Milwaukee Brewers (21-23)
Disappointing performances from Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and Jackson Chourio to this point in the year have limited the Brewers’ performance so far. (Contreras is playing through a broken middle finger, which can’t help.) Thankfully, players like Rhys Hoskins and Brice Turang have both looked excellent so far and the Brewers have proved they can win mostly on the strength of their pitching before. Freddy Peralta and rookie Chad Patrick have been excellent, Brandon Woodruff is nearing a return, and top prospect Jacob Misiorowski is throwing 103 mph with dazzling results at Triple-A. If the star hitters can perform at a higher level going forward, perhaps that would be enough to get them back into the mix.
Cincinnati Reds (21-24)
It’s been a frustrating season for the Reds so far. The rotation, led by Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, has been strong, but those contributions have been dampened by a frustrating lineup that has failed to get consistent quality production out of anyone but Jose Trevino and Gavin Lux. Even Elly De La Cruz has been a roughly average hitter overall, while key pieces like Matt McLain and Spencer Steer have been bitterly disappointing. Fortunately, Noelvi Marte seems to be coming around after a disastrous 2024. There’s still enough time that if the club’s young lineup can go on a heater, it’s easy to imagine a strong pitching staff carrying them back into the postseason conversation.
The Rest Of The Field
The five teams mentioned above are all within five games of a Wild Card spot. The rest of the league would have a lot more work to do. The Nationals have an exciting young core featuring James Wood, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore but lack the pitching depth to capitalize on it. The Marlins have gotten a big performance from Kyle Stowers, but a disappointing pitching staff that includes an 8.10 ERA from Sandy Alcantara is keeping the playoffs out of reach. The inverse is true in Pittsburgh, where Paul Skenes leads an impressive rotation but Bryan Reynolds has a wRC+ of just 55. Meanwhile, the Rockies are the team that can be most decisively counted out of the playoff picture in a season where they’re poised to contend for the modern loss record.
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Which of the teams outside of the NL playoff picture entering play today do MLBTR readers think stands the best chance of making it into the postseason? Have your say in the poll below:
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