Stock markets appear to be holding onto their recent gains today after the S&P 500 rose 0.23% yesterday. S&P futures were up 0.3% this morning. The index is up 0.6% year to date, but that masks the scale of the recent rally: Stocks haven’t risen this far, this fast, in over 40 years.
“The last time the S&P 500 erased a 15% year-to-date decline in under six weeks was back in 1982,” Kevin Ford of Convera told clients in a note this morning.
Asia was mixed this morning. Japan was flat. China was down 0.5%. Korea was marginally up and India was slightly down.
Investors have reason to be optimistic. The hard data shows that the paralysis caused by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs is easing after the program was put on hold for 90 days.
Freight shipping into the U.S. is on the increase again, according to Project44, a supply chain platform. “Following the steep tariffs introduced the week of April 7th, blank sailings spiked by 400% for the week of April 28th. However, blank sailings have steadily declined since that peak and are expected to remain low as export volumes rise in response to the tariff rollback,” the company said. (A “blank sailing” occurs when a ship’s scheduled route is either cancelled or a port of call skipped due to lack of demand.)
U.S. retail sales were upbeat, also. “Retail sales held up relatively well in April, clinging on to nearly all their solid gains in March,” Pantheon Macroeconomics analysts Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen told their clients in a research note. “But sales volumes are likely to falter soon, as the wave of pre-tariff purchases unwinds in earnest. A more substantial pass-through from tariffs to retail prices probably will soon weigh on sales volumes too.”
JPMorgan held a conference of tech CEOs and found them to be in relatively cheerful mood: “Most CEOs and CFOs we hosted at the conference are feeling more confident about the macro outlook following the step down in tariffs on China earlier this week. ... Nevertheless, a minority of executives were still concerned about customers pausing for the final state of tariffs before making large capital decisions,” JPM’s Samik Chatterjee told clients in a note seen by Fortune.
Here’s a snapshot of today’s action prior to the opening bell in New York:
The S&P 500 rose 0.41% yesterday. The index is up 0.6% YTD. S&P futures traded up 0.3% this morning, premarket. The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.57% in early trading. Asia was mixed: Japan was flat. China was down 0.5%. Korea was marginally up and India was slightly down. Coinbase fell 7.2% yesterday after traders took profits from a 20% runup over the last five days. Bitcoin was sitting above $103,000 this morning.This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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