Spring ball is over, the transfer portal is closed for the time being, and college football is taking a collective breath. It’s the perfect time to reassess and get a lay of the land heading into the 2025 season.
So that’s exactly what we’re doing.
Below, you’ll find my top 25 as we enter into the summer months.
Let’s just dive in.
No. 25: Michigan Wolverines
Michigan is top-30 in returning production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The Wolverines also closed out their 8-5 2024 campaign ranked 26th overall in Connelly’s SP+ model. The talent is still very much there for the Wolverines, but there’s a great, big, giant question mark at the quarterback spot. Five-star freshman Bryce Underwood was supposed to battle with Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene in the spring, but an injury to Keene kept him on the shelf. Underwood is expected to be the guy, but if Keene is unavailable for any portion of the season, Michigan is going to be young and thin at the quarterback spot — a tricky combination to work around when the burden to fix a disastrous offense is squarely on the quarterback’s shoulders. Michigan ranked 123rd last season in EPA per dropback, according to Game on Paper. And the best offensive weapon from that group is gone.
No. 24: Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies have to replace a ton of what made last year’s front seven so formidable, but maybe a little offensive improvement can help balance the scales. Texas A&M brought in a difference-making receiver in NC State transfer Kevin Concepcion, and it returns a pair of tailbacks in Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens who were hampered by injuries last year. I don’t necessarily subscribe to the notion that a quarterback will improve just because he’s another year older — progression at this spot in particular isn’t always as linear as we’d like it to be — but A&M certainly needs Marcel Reed to take a step forward as a passer. Following Conner Weigman’s transfer, Reed gets a full offseason of work as QB1. They run the ball well with Reed at the controls but he has work to do as a drop-back passer.
No. 23: Kansas State Wildcats
Here we have another team with a rising dual-threat quarterback. Kansas State fans were content to move on from Will Howard last offseason because it opened the door for Avery Johnson. A full-time starter for the first time in his career, Johnson had some good moments and some rough moments. Turnover issues plagued him in losses to BYU, Houston, and Arizona State. He threw for almost 300 yards and 3 scores in a romp of West Virginia, too. Kansas State will have a dynamic backfield with Johnson and tailback Dylan Edwards.
No. 22: Tennessee Volunteers
The Vols leaned heavily last season on their punishing defense and their imposing ground game. The engine for the ground game is gone, and the teeth of the defense need replacing. The hope was that Nico Iamaleava would take a step and Tennessee would evolve amidst his ascension. Then he blew the plan up when he decided to enter the transfer portal at the end of the spring. Tennessee replaced him with a gunslinger who has plenty of starting experience, but also 51 turnover-worthy plays in the last 2 seasons. The Vols could have done worse, but their offense becomes very tricky to project now with question marks at both receiver and passer.
No. 21: Miami Hurricanes
I’m lower on Miami than some for one very obvious reason. Carson Beck isn’t Cam Ward, and he might not be all that close. Beck is coming off a significant surgery to his throwing arm, he’s getting acclimated to a new team and a new offense, and he’s picking up the reins of a team with Playoff aspirations. Miami has a remade cast of skill players on offense, and the situation just doesn’t feel all that different from the one we just saw Beck struggle with at Georgia. He didn’t trust his receivers and pressed far too often. Beck had excellent games, but his midseason stretch of turnover-plagued ball kept Georgia from really taking off. Miami should be OK on defense, but I just don’t really trust the coach or the quarterback. Mario Cristobal is a liability in close games, and while Ward would take plenty of chances with the football, his best is better than Beck’s best.
No. 20: Iowa State Cyclones
There were times last season when I questioned just how real the 2024 Iowa State Cyclones were. Iowa State went 4-1 in games decided by 3 points or less. That kind of fortune doesn’t historically carry over from year to year. Iowa State was also one of the luckiest teams in the country when it came to takeaways. Turnover luck doesn’t historically last either. And quarterback Rocco Becht was among the FBS leaders in turnover-worthy plays, according to PFF. He had 20, which was tied with several others for the sixth-most of any FBS passer. He only threw 9 interceptions, but that looks a little lucky too when you consider Becht was a sub-60% passer. This was an 11-win team from a power conference that finished outside the SP+ top 25 and had an opponent-adjusted net EPA-per-play mark that ranked 40th nationally. None of this is said to admonish the Cyclones after their best season in program history. Some pieces on the defense can be game-wreckers. However, I do think Iowa State is a candidate to disappoint in 2025.
No. 19: Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech ended last season 54th in SP+ — behind in-state peer Texas State. The Red Raiders went 8-5 in a season that showed a little too much inconsistency. According to Connelly’s returning production numbers, the Red Raiders are bringing back more on the defensive side than any other team in the country. And they absolutely hammered the transfer portal to retrofit the roster for a Playoff push. Texas Tech signed the second-ranked transfer class according to the 247Sports composite rankings. It’s a group that goes 21 deep and includes a couple of pass-rushers who should make a difference right away. Tech has to get better on defense — it ranked 95th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play allowed last season — but coach Joey McGuire has used every tool at his disposal this offseason to try and do that.
No. 18: Louisville Cardinals
Miller Moss was the savior for USC until he wasn’t, but I’m not convinced he was the Trojans’ biggest issue last season. He had more than 300 passing yards 4 times and 4 games with an 80-plus QBR. He threw 3 picks in a loss to Washington that ultimately cost him his job, so there are things that need to be cleaned up, but at Louisville, he links up with a coach in Jeff Brohm who has proven time and time and time again capable of getting the absolute best out of his passers. Moss will have Isaac Brown to hand off to and Chris Bell to throw to. Louisville is going to have to score points because of its defense, but this offense could be top-10 caliber. It was 11th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play last season, so it isn’t that far off already.
No. 17: BYU Cougars
BYU is a little like Iowa State in that it rode some variance to an 11-win season. The Cougars were 3-0 in games decided by 3 points or less until consecutive weeks in November brought a 4-point loss and home and then a 5-point loss on the road. The Cougars started 9-0, lost back-to-back to fall out of the Playoff picture, and then rebounded with consecutive wins to close out the year. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff, tailback LJ Martin, and wideout Chase Roberts are all back to lead the offense again. The group closed out last season ranked 36th in offensive SP+. I have concerns about Retzlaff — another sub-60% passer who put the ball in danger too much last year — but BYU’s ability to punish opponents for mistakes in all 3 phases of the game feels more like something it can actually hang its hat on. BYU was fourth in special teams SP+ and one of the least penalized teams in the country. It’s a group that doesn’t beat itself.
No. 16: Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana got clowned for the losses it took, and then the season ended and the only 2 teams to beat the Hoosiers all year were the national champion and the national runner-up. We saw Indiana get outclassed in those 2 losses, to be clear, but the Hoosiers weren’t the patsy some folks made them out to be. Ohio State and Notre Dame outclassed just about everyone. Indiana returns a good chunk of the core. Elijah Sarratt is an excellent receiver, Fernando Mendoza is a capable quarterback, and the defense has stars back at each level. Indiana could very realistically win 10 games again. I like Mendoza in this IU offense. With Cal last season, he was top-30 in EPA per dropback and top-25 in passing success rate, per Game on Paper.
No. 15: SMU Mustangs
SMU followed up an 11-3 season in the American with an 11-3 season in the ACC that featured an unbeaten run in conference play, a conference title appearance, and a Playoff bid. Everything about the Mustangs’ profile screamed “legit.” They ended the year 12th in SP+, ahead of 3 schools from the SEC, which is no small feat in a model that factors in roster talent via recruiting. According to Game on Paper’s adjusted net EPA-per-play metric, SMU was the 10th most efficient team in the country. Quarterback Kevin Jennings picked up the torch from Preston Stone and led the Ponies back to relevancy. Jennings is back, along with several top linemen. UCLA tailback TJ Harden transferred in to replace Brashard Smith. And coach Rhett Lashlee hammered the portal for reinforcements on the defensive line.
No. 14: Ole Miss Rebels
I am willing to admit that this Ole Miss program might be my blind spot. I was willing to die on the hill defending the Rebels last season, and I’m setting up my encampment once again ahead of 2025. Game on Paper’s adjusted net EPA-per-play metric was really illustrative last season. Of the 8 at-large teams that made the CFP, 7 of them were among the top 11 in net EPA per play. The 4 finalists comprised the top 4 in the metric. Ole Miss ranked seventh in adjusted net EPA per play. Ole Miss also closed the year second in SP+ and opens 2025 at No. 9 despite ranking 113th in returning production. The Rebels are loaded at receiver, they have a quarterback I’m anxious to see more of, an offense that just breeds points, and a defensive coordinator who knows how to get the most out of his guys. Ole Miss was one of the best teams in the country last season. It has the potential to challenge for a Playoff spot once again in 2025.
No. 13: Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois wasn’t a legitimate contender in the Big Ten last year. It might be this year. If continuity leads to growth, Illinois should take a major step forward. Quarterback Luke Altmyer is coming back for his third year as a starter. All 5 of his offensive linemen are back alongside him. The entire secondary is back. And Gabe Jacas is back after ranking among the Big Ten’s best pass-rushers a season ago.
No. 12: South Carolina Gamecocks
The Gamecocks ended the 2024 regular season with a bang, winning 6 straight before a 4-point loss to Illinois in the bowl game. During the winning streak, South Carolina beat a ranked Texas A&M team, a ranked Mizzou team, and a ranked Clemson team on the road. LaNorris Sellers’ development was a big reason why South Carolina went on its run, and his continued growth will be key in determining whether this is a Playoff team in 2025 or not. Dylan Stewart has best-in-class potential as a pass-rusher off the edge and South Carolina should get heady play from the secondary. If the offensive line can give Sellers better protection, South Carolina can take a step. Only 1 qualified SEC quarterback was pressured on a higher percentage of his dropbacks last season than Sellers was, and Sellers posted a 42.1 passer grade with 15 turnover-worthy plays when under duress. That has to improve.
No. 11: Florida Gators
It’s not just DJ Lagway for Florida in 2025. (Though he is a pretty big piece of the pie.) The Gators have returning playmakers all over. Eugene Wilson III and J.Michael Sturdivant could be one of the SEC’s best receiver tandems. Jadan Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson could be one of the SEC’s best tailback tandems. The offensive line is anchored well. The defensive line is menacing. So long as Lagway is healthy, Florida will once again look like the team that went 5-2 over the back half of the season.
No. 10: Arizona State Sun Devils
I love Arizona State in 2025. Coach Kenny Dillingham is a bright, energetic leader who has consistently produced outstanding offenses. He’ll have one of the nation’s brightest young quarterbacks to work with in 2025, along with wideout Jordyn Tyson and 10 returning starters on defense. Arizona State ended the season 18th in adjusted net EPA per play and, according to Connelly’s tracking, only Clemson returns more production in 2025 than the Sun Devils. Dillingham won 11 games, won a Big 12 title, and earned a bid to the CFP in just his second season with the program. In terms of investment and buy-in, there may not be a more unified program anywhere in the country.
No. 9: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Major parts of what made Notre Dame so special last season are gone. Defensive coordinator Al Golden left. Quarterback Riley Leonard is in the NFL. The offensive line lost contributors and the defensive secondary lost stars. In Jeremiyah Love and Jaden Greathouse, Notre Dame has home run-hitters on the offensive side. The biggest question is whether quarterback CJ Carr — the likely starter after Steve Angeli hit the portal at the conclusion of spring ball — can keep the Irish humming at an elite level. Notre Dame boasted an unrelenting defense last season but the offense was also excellent on the ground.
No. 8: Alabama Crimson Tide
Judging by the numbers, Alabama had an elite defense last season. The group finished eighth in SP+ and 10th in adjusted EPA per play allowed. Alabama smothered passing games and won early downs. I expect the Crimson Tide to be just as strong on defense in 2025. They added a top-flight coordinator to a staff that already had a top-10 coach. It comes down to the quarterback spot for Kalen DeBoer. The Tide were too all-or-nothing on offense last season with Jalen Milroe running the show. That was true on the ground, where Milroe was the main threat, and it was true through the air. Alabama went through a spring competition between Ty Simpson, Austin Mack, and freshman Keelon Russell. So long as we don’t get a musical chairs act at quarterback, average play from that spot in a manner that fits what Ryan Grubb needs will produce a top-10 offense.
No. 7: Oregon Ducks
Oregon has been recruiting as well as any program in the country under Dan Lanning, both on the high school trail and in the portal. The Ducks lose a ton from the team that started 13-0 last season, but they have backfilled talent like an SEC titan and I just don’t expect much drop-off. I like Tulane transfer tailback Makhi Hughes. Tight end Kenyon Sadiq and edge Matayo Uiagalelei are breakout candidates. The Ducks have motivated vets all across the 2-deep. I’m more interested in the defensive side of the football than anything. Oregon’s inability to stop the run was its undoing last season. How does coordinator Tosh Lupoi fix that while replacing 3 massively important defensive linemen?
No. 6: LSU Tigers
It’s do-or-die time for coach Brian Kelly in Baton Rouge. LSU returns one of the nation’s best quarterbacks in Garrett Nussmeier. The skill positions are loaded on offense. Linebacker is loaded on defense. The secondary will be strong. How does LSU fare in the trenches? Four starters have to be replaced from the offensive line. And the interior of the defensive line has long been an area of emphasis. So long as Nussmeier gets the same level of protection as last season, when he was pressured on just 27.7% of his dropbacks (per PFF), LSU is going to light defenses up left and right.
No. 5: Texas Longhorns
Texas has some superstar talent returning on both sides of the football — CJ Baxter Jr., Anthony Hill Jr. — but it ranks 103rd in returning production, according to Connelly, and ushers in a new era at quarterback. While I don’t necessarily doubt the talent Arch Manning possesses, I’m taking a more cautious approach with Texas than most. The Longhorns had a relatively easy go of it in their first run through the SEC and have a ton of veteran leadership to replace from a team that made back-to-back CFP semifinal appearances. The margin between 5 and 4 here comes down to what we saw when the 2 teams shared the field last season.
No. 4: Georgia Bulldogs
Even a down Georgia team still walloped Texas and won an SEC Championship. I expect the Bulldogs squad we see in 2025 to be a better one. Kirby Smart recruits better than just about anyone in the country, and he addressed problem areas in the portal well. Georgia’s pass game, which finished 33rd in success rate last year (per Game on Paper), should be improved. The receiving room got better and the quarterback play shouldn’t feature such drastic variance. You bet on Smart, and you bet on Georgia having equal or better talent.
No. 3: Clemson Tigers
The Tigers went 10-4 last season, won the ACC, made the CFP, and had an offense that ranked 16th in the final SP+ calculations of the season. They upgraded their defensive coordinator position, a move that should help unlock what could be one of the best front sevens in football. And they rank first in returning offensive production, according to Bill Connelly’s tracking. Clemson has one of the best, most experienced quarterbacks in the country, and it has a ton of continuity around the quarterback spot.
No. 2: Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State finished the 2024 season ranked third in adjusted net EPA per play. According to Connelly’s calculations, the Nittany Lions are 14th nationally in returning offensive production, and that is thanks in large part to backfield stars Drew Allar, Nic Singleton, and Kaytron Allen all opting to put the NFL on hold for one more season to chase a title. Penn State this year feels like Ohio State last year, which is to say it’s a team that has very publicly committed to a title-or-bust campaign.
No. 1: Ohio State Buckeyes
My modus operandi for the top of these kinds of rankings is a simple one: If you were the last team standing, you’re holding the top spot until someone takes it from you or you prove unworthy of it. Ohio State won last year’s national championship with a dominant Playoff run, returns its head coach, returns the best offensive playmaker in the country, and returns the best defensive player in the country. The new quarterback is a former 5-star, and the last time I doubted a blue-chip Ohio State passer simply because he was young, Justin Fields threw for a bajillion touchdowns.
Way-too-early 2025 top 25: Ranking college football’s best teams after spring ball Saturday Down South.
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