Vladimir Putin has evaded a call by European leaders for a 30-day ceasefire and instead proposed a meeting between Moscow and Kyiv representatives in Istanbul on Thursday.
US President Donald Trump, who is on a visit to the Middle East, floated the idea of attending the meeting too, saying on Monday, “I believe the two leaders are going to be there [Turkey]. I was thinking about flying over.”
US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on Air Force One on his way to Qatar on May 14, 2025. (Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP)“Trump can really help. It’s the situation where the US being present can give important guarantees,” Zelensky said.
It could also serve as the cue that will make the US “move on” altogether.
“This is effectively an attempt by the Kremlin to coerce Ukraine into a deal and giving Donald Trump just enough to be able to say, well, the Russians do want peace, they are trying, and to maybe push the Ukrainians towards signing a deal that’s bad for them,” said Stephen Hall, Professor in Russian and Post-Soviet Politics at the University of Bath.
If the Russian leader fails to appear, or if disagreements between the two sides prove irreconcilable, the US may decide it’s time to walk away from moderating the negotiations, Hill said.
US President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio during a meeting in the White House (Photo: AP)“The Ukrainians and the Russians, they are opposed in terms of what they want, even the minimal outcomes, (…) so it’s quite possible that the Americans will decide that now is the time to walk away,” Hill said.
A shift in Ukraine’s favour?
If the outcome in Turkey doesn’t satisfy Trump or make him feel he has secured a diplomatic win, it could prompt him to shift focus and choose to rally support for Ukraine and Europe.
“The Europeans have got quiet in terms of wanting to have someone there, so I suspect they also believe that they’ve either been told by the Americans that they’re not invited or that they suspect the talks are going to go nowhere anyway,” Hill said.
Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz attend a phone call with the US President after their meeting in Kyiv, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Photo: AFP)“The Europeans are in a difficult position,” he said. “They need the Americans on their side.”
“For the British, the French, the Germans, that’s going to be very hard. I suspect that they are hoping that Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin will highlight finally to Donald Trump that they don’t want peace, and that what they actually want is Ukrainian suzerainty, Ukrainian capitulation, effectively.”
Meeting with Zelensky would undermine Putin’s propaganda
However, under Ukraine’s constitution, elections cannot occur while the country is under martial law, which was imposed in response to Putin’s invasion
US President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky (Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP)
A face-to-face meeting between Putin and Zelensky “would rather undermine Putin’s credibility and also propaganda”, Hill said.
There will likely be quite a few comments coming from Russian and American officials about what each side wants, he said. “So we can expect lots of soundbites.”
But when it comes to tangible solutions and how exactly events in Istanbul unfold, at this stage, “it’s almost impossible, very difficult to predict.”
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