Jana al-Issa | Hassan Ibrahim | Lama Diab
The weather and economic conditions threaten a decrease in the wheat production for the 2025 season in Syria, amid the government’s unclear alternatives to secure the commodity from multiple sources as has been customary in previous years. This could impact the bread loaf, a staple on citizens’ tables.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations stated in a report issued in early April that wheat production in Syria is expected to be below the average production of past years. Additionally, dry weather conditions and security concerns hinder grain production in 2025.
The state of economic instability also creates uncertainty regarding the requirements for grain imports this year, indicating a continuation of food insecurity in 2025 despite declining food prices, according to the report.
Enab Baladi discusses in this report with farmers and agricultural engineers the current state of the wheat season, examines government figures regarding production realities and the country’s needs, and potential methods to secure it. It also reviews proposals and short- and long-term strategies that would ensure Syria’s return to being self-sufficient in wheat.
Drought and costs: The strategic crop in declineAgriculture used to account for approximately 33% of the country’s GDP, falling to 17% in 2010, and currently stands at 12%.
The sector employed over 30% of the workforce before 2011, while the current percentage is only 15%.
In Syria, around 13 million people, over half the population, suffer from food insecurity, including 3.1 million facing severe food insecurity.
Wheat is one of the primary strategic crops in Syria; from 1990 to 2010, the average production exceeded four million tons, with the highest recorded in 2006 at 4.9 million tons, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics. The average local consumption was 2.5 million tons, allowing for an export surplus ranging from 1.2 to 1.5 million tons.
Farmers harvest wheat in southern Idlib – June 4, 2023 (Enab Baladi/Iyad Abdul Jawad)
A catastrophic season
The FAO indicated in its report that the winter grain planting for 2025 was delayed due to late rainfall in November 2024 and severely disrupted by ongoing conflicts, population displacement, governmental transition towards the end of 2024, and drought at the start of the season between October 2024 and January 2025.
With the harvest beginning in June, limited access to fields and reduced rainfall is expected to decrease planted areas, signaling forecasts of lower-than-average grain production. Additionally, rising input costs, including fuel and fertilizers, may discourage farmers from planting grains, pushing them to shift to more profitable crops such as anise, cumin, blackseed, and coriander.
According to farmers and agricultural engineers interviewed by Enab Baladi, this year’s wheat season appears bleak. Farmers repeatedly describe the season as “failed,” “loss-making,” “catastrophic,” and “unproductive.” Drought has dashed their hopes, leaving them burdened with debts after spending on land preparation and purchasing agricultural supplies, in addition to delays in planting, which typically occurs between November 15 and December 15.
Some farmers sold their wheat crop as fodder for livestock due to insufficient rain and their inability to complete irrigation, with damage to fields ranging between 40% and 75%.
Abdul Aziz al-Qassim, Director General of the General Authority for Agricultural Management and Development in al-Ghab Plain, stated that the area that went out of agricultural production for wheat in al-Ghab Plain reached 7,782 hectares of the total area planted with wheat, which amounted to 52,541 hectares.
Al-Qassim pointed out three reasons for the decline and failure in certain areas: the interruption of rainfall between February 20 and March 22 during a critical growth phase, a decline in water inflow from the al-Rastan dam alongside a decrease in the flow of springs and rivers, and the rising costs of irrigation, according to a statement obtained by Enab Baladi.
Agricultural engineer Ahmed Kiwan in Daraa said to Enab Baladi that the wheat crop entered the filling stage in recent weeks, wherein nutrition is focused on grain formation. However, the height of wheat stems in most crops does not exceed 20 centimeters, whereas it should exceed 50 centimeters at this time of year.
He added that wheat has not benefited from rainwater due to its scarcity, which contains nitrogen and organic azote; thus, irrigation water, regardless of the level of watering, does not compensate. He estimated the success rate of this year’s wheat crop at 5%, mostly from irrigated lands, which can be beneficial for producing wheat and straw.
As for rain-fed crops of wheat and barley, they are out of production, with most now suitable only for pastures, according to Kiwan.
According to exclusive statistics obtained by Enab Baladi, the areas planted with wheat in the city of Tal Abyad north of Raqqa have decreased by 100,000 dunams since 2024, reaching 200,000 dunams this year compared to 300,000 dunams in 2024, with yields ranging from 200 to 250 kilograms per dunam.
In Ras al-Ain, located northwest of al-Hasakah, irrigated areas this season reached about 120,000 dunams compared to 135,000 dunams in the 2024 season, with yields ranging from 250 to 300 kilograms per dunam.
Farmers in both cities face challenges due to scarce rainfall, drought, lack of high-yield seeds and their high costs, rising fertilizer prices, and a shortage of fuel alongside increasing costs for solar energy projects.
For Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad, each has its own characteristics as they are border regions with Turkey and do not have official routes to the other Syrian provinces; therefore, farmers in these areas face difficulty in marketing their grains, which allows traders to monopolize the harvest.
An agricultural engineer in rural Deir Ezzor in eastern Syria predicted a decline in wheat production in the region this year by 30%, adding that the wheat season has been affected by eight issues that have impacted production and led to a decline in the future, which are:
Rising costs of land preparation, including plowing and other expenses. Lack of production necessities (fertilizers, fuels) and their rising prices. Unavailability of suitable agricultural varieties that are pure and of high yield. Ignoring correct conditions for accepting multiplication fields, leading to mixed varieties and reduced yields. Lack of government-licensed and effective herbicides, leading to reliance on unlicensed and smuggled pesticides, which are less effective in controlling broadleaf and narrowleaf weeds in wheat fields. The increased spread of the sunn pest this season due to a lack of necessary medicines and the high costs of pest control. Weather conditions, especially drought and low rainfall, resulting in increased irrigation requirements. Failure to plant full areas by some farmers due to distance from irrigation sources and increased production costs.Wheat production at 19% of demand
Amid the decline in wheat production in Syria this year, and with pessimistic forecasts, plans must be in place to cover the deficit, fearing an increase in the food gap.
The production deficit is no longer just an economic indicator discussed by specialists; it is turning into a humanitarian tragedy affecting the lives of millions of citizens. After being a wheat exporter, Syria now struggles to ensure the availability of bread.
Saeed Ibrahim, the Director of the Agriculture Economic and Planning Directorate at the Ministry of Agriculture, told Enab Baladi that the planned area for wheat cultivation reached 1.4 million hectares, which represents one-third of the planned area for the agricultural cycles (summer + winter). The implemented area reached 1,099,686 hectares, with an execution rate of 76%, including 425,150 hectares irrigated with a 73% execution rate and 674,536 hectares dry farming with a 77% execution rate.
The estimated production according to the general state of the crop (good, average, poor) is 772,838 tons, and production estimates are expected to decrease as most of the rain-fed areas are excluded from the estimates, in addition to part of these areas being designated for grazing (as they did not reach the harvest stage due to poor plant growth), according to the Director of the Agriculture Economic and Planning Directorate.
These figures reveal a shocking decline in wheat cultivation this year, carrying dangerous indicators that require swift action to save agriculture in Syria from collapse.
The official from the Ministry of Agriculture indicated that Syria’s need for wheat is estimated at 4 million tons (based on the population estimated at 22.5 million in 2020). Therefore, the estimated production accounts for 19% of the demand, indicating a shortfall in meeting the needs of the population by nearly 80%.
Farmers harvesting wheat in southern Idlib – June 4, 2023 (Enab Baladi/Iyad Abdul Jawad)
Climate change affects negativelyThe deterioration in the agricultural sector is attributed to several reasons, the most significant being climate change, which has impacted crops and necessitates government intervention to support farmers.
Climate changes play a crucial role in determining the direction of Syrian wheat crops. Alongside the challenges posed by war and dwindling resources, the decrease in and inconsistency of rainfall has led to severe drought years, marking points of collapse in production, as seen in 2018, 2021, and 2022. In contrast, years of improved rainfall, such as 2020 and 2023, brought some recovery in production.
Despite the estimated rainfall for 2025 not being significantly lower than that of 2024, the late rainfall at the end of 2024 and its inconsistency this year have negatively affected rain-fed crops and raised the farmers’ concerns.
The average rainfall in Syria is estimated to be between 300 and 350 millimeters annually, and this year, estimates at best reach 210 millimeters.
The burden of bread prices
The bread bundle has been freed from the restrictions of the smart card system, previously used to distribute state-subsidized materials, with the fall of the previous Assad regime.
However, with the availability of the material and the absence of queues at bakeries, the price of bread has soared. Changes have occurred in the weight and price of the bread bundle, with the weight of a single bundle now at 1200 grams instead of 1100, containing 12 loaves instead of 7, with a selling price of 4000 Syrian pounds instead of 400.
This increase in bread prices is burdensome compared to the average wages in Syria, which amount to around 540,000 Syrian pounds, according to Numbeo, a website specializing in calculating the cost of living.
In January 2025, the average monthly national minimum expenditure basket (MEB) for a family of five reached about 2.5 million Syrian pounds (around 250 dollars at the black market exchange rate), a decrease of approximately 15% from the previous month, marking its lowest level in a year.
The minimum wage, around 280,000 Syrian pounds per month (28 dollars), covers only about 18% of the food component of the minimum expenditure basket, significantly weakening the purchasing power of families and their food security.
The slight decrease in food prices can be attributed to the decline in the local exchange rate in the parallel market, the easing of import restrictions that increased food supplies, and the removal of military barriers on main roads, which facilitated faster goods movement and contributed to lowering transportation costs, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Importing from multiple sourcesRegarding the proposed solutions to cover the shortfall, the Director of the Economy and Planning Directorate at the Ministry of Agriculture, Saeed Ibrahim, stated that the shortfall will be covered either by importing soft wheat or flour directly, and efforts are underway to secure these needs. The Iraqi side has supplied part of Syria’s wheat needs, and an agreement has been reached with the Turkish side to import flour in the coming periods in several batches.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) indicated that the wheat import requirements for the marketing year 2024-2025 are expected to be slightly higher than the average of the past five years, due to a decline in wheat production for 2024. However, economic uncertainty, fluctuations in the national currency, and internal disturbances pose challenges for the country in securing wheat imports in 2025.
On April 20th, the General Authority for Land and Sea Ports in Syria announced the arrival of the first ship loaded with wheat at the Port of Latakia since the regime’s fall, carrying 6,600 tons of wheat. The General Establishment for Cereal Processing and Trade (Hoboob) also signed a contract to import 100,000 tons of wheat, which is currently being supplied without disclosing the source of the import.
Russian news agency TASS reported, quoting a trader who organized grain supplies to Syria during the previous regime, that the ship “Pola Marina” transported 6,600 tons of wheat to the Syrian port of Latakia. The unnamed trader mentioned that a Russian company organized the delivery process.
He added that the company “had not previously been involved” in importing Russian grains to Syria and said, “There is currently no talk of resuming regular grain supplies from Russia to Syria,” considering this transportation to be “exceptional.”
In recent years, the ousted regime secured wheat from Russia through various ways, including bilateral agreements rarely disclosed in detail, or through tenders issued by the General Establishment for Cereal Processing and Trade in Syria to purchase wheat, or what Russia sends as “aid,” or Moscow “stealing” Ukrainian wheat and sending a portion to Syria, as revealed by Ukrainian figures and news agencies, despite the Assad regime denying this.
However, Russia suspended wheat exports to Syria until further notice days after Bashar al-Assad’s fall, due to “uncertainty about the new authority” and delays in settling previous financial dues.
Farmers harvesting wheat crops in southern Idlib – June 4, 2023 (Enab Baladi/Iyad Abdul Jawad)
Countries willing to supply wheat to Syria
For its part, Ukraine expressed its readiness to supply wheat to Syria after Russia suspended wheat supplies.
Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture, Vitaly Kovalev, stated that Ukraine, a global producer and exporter of grains and oilseeds, is ready to supply food to Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, adding, “When things are tough, we need to be there with our food. We are open to providing our food, and if Syria needs food, we will be there.”
Last February, the British Foreign Office announced that it had allocated three million pounds to fund Ukrainian wheat supplies to Syria, as part of the commitments made by Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky regarding the delivery of Ukrainian grains and other food products to Syria.
The Russian company “STG Engineering” halted its wheat exports to Syria but also expressed readiness to resume exports after contacting the transitional government in Damascus. The company’s general director, Dmitry Trifonov, told the Russian news agency TASS on December 30, 2024, that the company suspended exports to Syria after the ousting of the Bashar al-Assad regime but is willing to resume them after establishing contacts with the new authorities.
The first shipment of wheat from the Iraqi government also reached Syria, resuming a previous donation that was frozen with the fall of the Assad regime. The estimated quantity to be sent is approximately 220,000 tons, under the supervision of the Iraqi Ministry of Trade and the Iraqi Grains Corporation alongside its Syrian counterpart, and the wheat will be distributed across all provinces, as needed.
Director of the General Establishment for Cereal Processing and Trade, Hassan al-Othman, told Enab Baladi on April 22, that negotiations with the Iraqi government are ongoing to resume the grant that was previously provided to the Syrian people before the regime’s fall. Negotiations are also underway to purchase quantities of Iraqi wheat offered for sale through Syrian traders, according to al-Othman.
For his part, the commercial attaché at the Iraqi embassy, Naim al-Makhsusi, explained to Enab Baladi that Iraq has a surplus of wheat production and wishes to export it, amounting to one million tons, which will be sold at global stock exchange prices. Syrian traders, through private companies or the General Establishment for Cereal Processing and Trade, have the right to submit bids for purchase.
The need for long-term strategiesDue to multiple security, economic, and climatic conditions, several wheat farmers in Syria have been forced to abandon their profession, driven by several factors, including the fact that production costs have not matched various pricing determined by different controlling authorities in recent years. Environmental factors have also played a role, such as fires that have ravaged large areas destroying their crops, pushing farmers towards less costly crops.
World Bank data shows that the proportion of those working in agriculture in Syria reached about 15.5% of the total working population in all sectors in 2022, while it was 32.89% in 2000.
According to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Syria’s wheat crop for 2022 reached about one million tons, a decline of 75% from pre-2011 levels, while barley has become “almost nonexistent.”
The average production of the crop from 1990 to 2010 was over four million tons, and Syria recorded its highest production level in 2006 at 4.9 million tons, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics. The average local consumption was 2.5 million tons, allowing for an export surplus ranging from 1.2 to 1.5 million tons, figures that have not been witnessed in wheat production since then.
Regarding the proposed plans to improve crop yields and encourage its cultivation, and to restore Syria as a self-sufficient country in wheat, Dr. Salim al-Nabulsi, an agricultural economics professor at the International University of Zaytouna, mentioned in an interview with Enab Baladi three preliminary steps that should be prioritized during the current and upcoming seasons, which are as follows:
Direct support for local production: This includes measures such as providing essential agricultural inputs (high-quality seeds, fertilizers, pesticides) at subsidized prices through transparent mechanisms to avoid corruption, promoting modern irrigation in drought-affected areas (such as the Syrian Jazira) by rehabilitating irrigation networks and providing drip irrigation technologies, and offering subsidized fuel for agricultural machinery to operate machines and pumps. Stabilizing wheat prices for farmers: Setting a guaranteed purchase price from the state, higher than the free market, to encourage farmers to increase the cultivated areas. Expanding the role of the Syrian General Establishment for Cereal Processing and Trade in purchasing the crop directly from farmers, along with improving distribution and storage mechanisms. Focusing on major producing areas: Supporting provinces like Raqqa, al-Hasakah, and Deir Ezzor through programs for rehabilitating agricultural infrastructure (dams, wells, roads).Regarding long-term future strategies, Dr. al-Nabulsi stressed the need to enhance food security through diversification, reducing dependence on wheat as a single crop by encouraging the cultivation of other strategic crops (barley, corn) to lessen the pressure on water resources and developing drought-resistant and climate-change-resilient crops (such as resilient wheat or hybrid varieties).
It is also essential to reform agricultural policies, eliminate wheat cultivation in unsuitable (water-consuming) areas, and replace it with less water-intensive crops, as well as the need to reconsider agricultural land ownership laws to encourage investment in fallow lands, especially through partnerships between the public and private sectors.
According to al-Nabulsi, it is crucial to focus on investing in technology and scientific research, supporting agricultural research centers to develop high-yielding and climate-resilient wheat varieties, and promoting the use of drones and smart agriculture applications (such as soil analysis through artificial intelligence).
Additionally, building effective supply chains is vital, such as rehabilitating local factories for flour and feed production to reduce reliance on imports and establishing modern storage facilities to avoid waste (estimated at 20% in some areas), along with encouraging the return of agricultural engineers to work in rural areas through financial incentives.
In this context, it is also essential, alongside all of the above, to address climate change and adopt integrated water policies (such as rehabilitating dams and digging solar wells), and to educate farmers on the benefits of water consumption rationalization and avoiding excessive depletion.
Production accounts for 19% of demand: Wheat threatens hunger in Syria Enab Baladi.
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