The talks in London will be the culmination of months of negotiations around the Prime Minister’s so-called Brexit “reset”.
Agreements, of some kind, are likely to be reached in all areas that both sides can live with. But there will be questions over the level of concessions either the UK or EU have to make.
The UK has been pushing hard to get a full security and defence deal over the line in time to announce it at Monday’s summit.
Best case scenario for the UK Government at the summit: Starmer will be hoping for deep involvement for British defence firms in the EU’s so-called Security Action For Europe (SAFE) rearmament project which would allow them to access Brussels-backed loans to fund weapons-buying.
What the critics will say: In the face of Russian aggression, there is unlikely to be much criticism although some Eurosceptics may seize on any demands for Britain to pay into EU budgets if this does not give good access.
Movement of people
However, there is unlikely to be any immediate solution to the most obvious impact of being outside the EU for most British holidaymakers – longer queues for passport checks.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is attempting to win concessions on data sharing to help the UK tackle the small boats crisis, as the price for agreeing a deal on easier youth migration.
Worse case scenario: The UK and EU cannot find a landing zone in negotiations on youth mobility and this scuppers a deal in all the other areas on migration. The summit produces only a vague commitment to work more on these issues.
Some EU member states, led by France and Denmark, have made agreeing a deal to guarantee ongoing rights for their trawlers to fish in UK waters one of their main asks from the negotiations, as the current agreement is due to expire in 2026.
Best case scenario: An offer from the UK to maintain the status quo on fishing rights for several years is accepted as enough by the EU, and unlocks cooperation in other areas.
What critics will say: Any deal to give away more access to UK waters will be seized upon as another dumping of the British industry’s interests in pursuit of other post-Brexit prizes. Even if Starmer agrees to maintain the status quo, some may argue he gave away one of Britain’s bargaining chips in return for not very much.
Trade
The UK has already signalled it is willing to submit to EU demands for alignment with Brussels rules on agri-food trade to get a deal over the line, but is also facing demands to submit to European Court of Justice (ECJ) jurisdiction.
A smoother border regime could lead to improved choices for shoppers and a potential reduction in food prices.
The EU may also make a deal on trade conditional on the UK making concessions on youth mobility or fishing.
What the critics will say: Brexiteers are likely to argue this deal makes the UK a rule-taker from Brussels and is a betrayal of the vote to leave the EU, although the Government is likely to counter that it is a price worth paying to avoid costly border checks.
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