Not since The Pirate swooped in and robbed Texas has Texas Tech played in a bowl game that a national audience cared about. The irony of that legendary Michael Crabtree catch from 2008 is that while it ultimately knocked the Longhorns out of the BCS National Championship Game and pushed the Red Raiders to their highest AP Top 25 ranking in program history (No. 2), Mike Leach and Co. missed out on the chance to play for a title. Losing a single game — the wrong game — was all she wrote for Texas Tech in the BCS era. A 65-21 beatdown at the hands of eventual national championship invitee Oklahoma took that opportunity off the table.
Seventeen years later, Texas Tech has the pieces to return to the national stage. Or rather, the Red Raiders are primed to debut on the Playoff stage.
A few things are worth noting before we break down individual Playoff paths. One is that while we’re still in the 12-team era, I’m anticipating a change in 2025. I believe that we’ll get rid of the stipulation that the 4 byes/top-4 seeds will go to the 4 highest-ranked conference champs. One year in, I predict that all parties will get on board with changing that. These rankings, which I’ll roll out over the next 2 weeks, will reflect that anticipated change.
In other words, I won’t try to confuse you with seeding. This will just be based on where they’ll show up in the final Playoff poll. Just in case you forgot what Playoff field entails, here’s a refresher:
5 highest-ranked conference champs 7 at-large teams Seeds 1-4 get a 1st-Round bye Seeds 5-8 get a home Playoff game in the 1st Round Seeds 9-12 get a road Playoff game in the 1st RoundDoes that all sound good? Good.
Here’s the projected 12-team field so far:
No. 12 Boise State No. 11 LouisvilleLet’s continue with 10-seed Texas Tech:
Why the Playoff path exists
The short answer to this is that billionaire/oil man/former Texas offensive lineman Cody Campbell essentially plowed a Playoff path himself by pouring millions of dollars into the program’s NIL efforts. Call him the NIL Pirate, if you will. Campbell, who played under Leach from 2001-04, was a massive reason why Texas Tech signed the No. 2 transfer portal class (retaining general manager James Blanchard after he was heavily pursued by Notre Dame was also huge). That portal class included 13 transfers rated as 4-stars, the top 6 of which are veteran linemen from coast to coast.
Stanford Edge David Bailey UNC OT Howard Sampson Georgia Tech Edge Romello Height Illinois State IOL Hunter Zambrano Miami (OH) OL Will Jados UCF DL Lee HunterThat explains why Texas Tech ranks No. 4 in FBS in percentage of returning production, which puts great value on experience in the trenches. That’s relevant. If you’re of the belief that a transfer portal-heavy team can’t compete in the Playoff, perhaps you missed what teams like Indiana and Arizona State did to break through out of obscurity. Texas Tech is now in a position to seize that opportunity in what figures to be another wide-open year in the Big 12.
Why do I say that it looks like a wide-open Big 12? Texas Tech is the betting favorite to win the conference at +550 (via FanDuel). Six teams are between +550 and +800, which is essentially the oddsmakers’ way of acknowledging that the league lacks an obvious power. Defending champ ASU is in there at +600, and while the Sun Devils rank No. 2 in percentage of returning production ahead of the Red Raiders, it’s worth noting that 5th-place Heisman Trophy finisher/human battering ram Cam Skattebo is off to the NFL.
The path exists for plenty of Big 12 contenders because in a conference that doesn’t stockpile high school talent like the Big Ten or SEC, the separation isn’t there. That’s why stockpiling transfer portal talent like Texas Tech can be a separator.
Also working in Texas Tech’s favor is that it returns a quarterback in Behren Morton who quietly just led the nation’s No. 4 scoring offense. He’s coming off offseason shoulder surgery, so he could have to lean heavily on that veteran offensive line and USC running back transfer Quinten Joyner. But that’s still a unit that figures to put up a ton of points, especially against a schedule that features as favorable a nonconference schedule as a power conference team can have, as well as just 1 2024 FBS bowl participant through October. That game is against the aforementioned ASU, which Texas Tech beat last year.
I’m not saying that the schedule is 2024 Indiana-like, but it doesn’t hurt to catch some breaks with a Playoff path. Texas Tech is in position to do that.
The potential roadblock
Let’s call a spade a spade here. That 2024 Texas Tech defense was a throwback unit, and not in a good way. It was a throwback unit for Tech fans who remember the type of defenses that once kept a certain Patrick Mahomes from playing in a meaningful bowl game. Like the days of old, the Red Raiders had a top-4 offense and a bottom-15 scoring defense in 2024.
Yes, that transfer portal haul should help, especially on the defensive line. Finding any sort of pass rush would be beneficial for a group that allowed a whopping 308 passing yards/game last year. Tulsa was the only FBS team that allowed more than that. Quarterbacks just picked apart that unit last year, which is why Joey McGuire brought in Willie Fritz disciple Shiel Wood after he surprisingly led a top-40 defense (both in scoring defense and yards/play allowed) at Houston. That group ranked No. 5 in FBS with just 37 scrimmage plays of 20 yards allowed.
But yeah, Tech still needs a major improvement to make the field. Even Miami’s defense wasn’t nearly good enough to make the Playoff, and it had the No. 1 overall pick at the peak of his powers playing quarterback. The worst defense in the Playoff last year was Clemson, who allowed 23.4 points per game. That’s 11.4 points better than the Red Raiders were.
Favorable schedule or not, having a top-50 scoring defense is an absolute must if a breakthrough year is in store.
Odds that they win a Playoff game
I’ll set it at 28% for a couple reasons.
One is that Crabtree’s iconic touchdown catch and run against Texas in 2008 was … 28 yards. The other is that in the 7-10 matchup, I have Texas Tech traveling to face … Texas (I swear that I didn’t do that on purpose). Let’s remember that 2024 Big 12 champ Arizona State was a 4th-and-13 stop away from knocking off the Longhorns in the Peach Bowl. Granted, that was a much different Texas offense than the one we’ll see this year with Arch Manning.
It’s worth remembering that Texas also played in the closest of those dud first-round games in 2024. It was against that vulnerable Clemson defense, but the Longhorns eventually sent the Texas faithful home happy. This potential first-round matchup could follow a similar script, assuming that the Red Raiders’ defense flirts with mediocrity more than becoming a juggernaut.
Texas Tech would still be tasked with winning a road game vs. an AP top-10 team for the first time since it stunned No. 3 Oklahoma in 2011. That’s why it wouldn’t be considered a coin flip, especially for a program that is still searching for its first BCS/New Year’s 6/Playoff victory in program history.
But if Campbell funds a monumental Playoff season, it would be money well spent in Lubbock.
Predicting the Playoff will continue on Wednesday with No. 9 … a first-time participant from the Big Ten.
Predicting the 2025 Playoff: No. 10 Texas Tech Saturday Down South.
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