The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Why wasn’t the Pac-12’s Teresa Gould at the College Football Playoff meeting in New York on Thursday with the other four commissioners? — @jimmy0726
Simply put, the Pac-12 is a secondary player in the CFP governance structure for the 2026 season and beyond.
Actually, make that a tertiary player.
The SEC and Big Ten control the format for 2026 and have involved the ACC and Big 12 in the process. But in its post-implosion form, the Pac-12 has been relegated to the same tier of influence as the American and Mountain West (and MAC, Sun Belt and CUSA).
Which is to say the tier of zero influence when the CFP’s next contract cycle begins.
Gould’s absence was hardly the most notable development from the confab in New York this week.
It appears increasingly likely that expansion won’t end at 14, with ESPN indicating there is “continued focus” on growing the event to 16 teams starting with the 2026 season.
This, despite having just one year of the 12-team format.
This, despite the logistical issues that complicate the current competition calendar.
Would the 16-team format feature an opening round of eight games, all on the same weekend? Would byes exist, either for the top seeds or the conference champions? And when would the additional games be played?
The four opening-round games in 2024 were crammed into the weekend before Christmas, with one played on a Friday evening and two competing directly with the NFL on Saturday.
Imagine adding four games to that lineup.
ESPN could move a few to ABC or off-load them to TNT, which already sub-licenses two of the four opening-round games.
The ratings potential seems limited. The competitive value is questionable. And the move might prompt an aggressive response from the NFL’s schedule-makers. (Get ready for a Saturday triple-header: Giants-Eagles, Cowboys-Chiefs and 49ers-Raiders.)
There is no reason to expand from 12 to 16 teams … except the move benefits the only conferences that matter, the Big Ten and SEC.
A 16-team event likely would be loaded with automatic qualifiers in a 4-4-2-2-1-3 model:
The Big Ten and SEC would have four AQ spots; the ACC and Big 12 would have two; one would be reserved for the best Group of Six team; and three would be at-large slots.
One of the at-large berths would be crafted for Notre Dame, assuming the Irish attain a certain CFP ranking, with the other two available to the most qualified teams.
Naturally, the Big Ten and SEC would be at the head of the line for those final two at-large bids, thereby creating a fifth participant for each conference.
What’s more, the power conferences would set up play-in games on their championship weekend to generate additional media value.
And the SEC could add a ninth conference game.
And the Big Ten and SEC could arrange an inter-conference scheduling series.
All those moves are related, and they are all designed to extract more cash from Fox, which owns the Big Ten’s media rights, and ESPN, which owns the SEC’s rights.
There is value in playoff expansion for the ACC and Big 12, as well, if they can send a third team into the CFP.
But the likelihood of the Group of Six grabbing one of the new at-large spots is extremely limited.
Expanding to 16 carries limited benefits for the little guys, which makes sense in that they have zero influence on the process.
What are the odds we see some basketball realignment with the Big East and ACC now that we have an American Pope with a Big East background? — @Big12Believer
Love the humor in your question, and we chuckled upon learning that Pope Leo XIV, while raised in Chicago, attended Villanova. (If our math is correct, he would have been a student in the early years of the Rollie Massimino era.)
On the slightly more serious side — because realignment has a comedic element — the potential for an ACC-Big East merger in the future certainly exists.
There are no guarantees the ACC survives the 2030-31 window, when the exit fees plunge and North Carolina, Clemson and Florida State (presumably) seek entrance into either the SEC or the Big Ten.
If they make the move, the ACC would have at least three paths: Move forward in depleted form with whichever schools remain; partner with the Big 12; or merge with the Big East.
The third option makes sense on multiple fronts, beginning with the geography. The ACC and Big East also share a deep commitment to basketball and have broadly shared academic missions, which is rooted in the abundance of private schools in the ACC.
And if a super league forms, those scenarios remain in play, depending on the number of ACC teams that would jump into the new structure.
The fate of Stanford and Cal is uncertain in any future arrangement given the competitive, financial and logistical challenges the Bay Area schools face.
And by then, it’s possible, if not likely, that Olympic sports will be reorganized into regional conferences.
Many are predicting the annual Notre Dame/USC rivalry game will end soon. Why do they believe this? Could UCLA take the place of USC and establish an annual rivalry game with Notre Dame? — @TerryTerry79
The fuel for so much of the speculation takes two forms:
— There are no games scheduled between the Trojans and Irish beyond the 2026 season.
— USC athletic director Jen Cohen didn’t commit to continuing the series during an interview with The Athletic earlier this year: “In an ideal world, we’re going to keep playing each other. With that being said, the landscape has changed dramatically … We remain in conversations with Notre Dame about the series.”
That’s more than vague enough to raise questions about the future.
And from USC’s perspective, the series is worth reassessing.
The Trojans have a Big Ten schedule with Big Ten travel, and they could end up facing an SEC team every season, as well, if the conferences agree to an annual series.
Is a 12-game schedule with multiple Big Ten roadtrips and an SEC opponent and Notre Dame actually in USC’s best interests? That’s debatable.
The same would be true for UCLA, by the way. The Bruins have enough trouble winning games without Notre Dame on the schedule.
And would the Irish view a series with the Bruins as being worthwhile? That’s debatable, too.
When will the departing Mountain West schools give official written notice and pay $5,000 to the conference? The deadline to do so, per MW bylaws revised in December 2023, is by June 1, 2025 (the year preceding their actual exit date). — @kha1926
This answer is not intended to be sarcastic: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State will give written notice to the Mountain West when their attorneys tell them to, and not a moment earlier.
That could be at the stated deadline. But depending on the fate of the lawsuits, it could be after the deadline.
Remember, there are two cases playing out concurrently, with the Mountain West as the defendant in both: The poaching penalty case, filed by the Pac-12 over the $55 million; and the exit fee case, filed by Boise State, Colorado State and Utah State, over the terms of their departures, that has roughly $100 million in the balance.
The Pac-12 and the Mountain West have agreed to mediation, with the first session scheduled for May 19.
You’ve been appointed mediator between the Mountain West and Pac-12. What do you think they’ll ask for? What do you push them to agree to take? — @ArtDirectorBYU
Although the mediator isn’t named in the latest court filing, our understanding is the Pac-12 and MW have, in fact, selected someone to lead the process.
And it’s not the Hotline.
Our hunch is the Pac-12 has evidence that both sides were aware the poaching penalty might have been illegal before the scheduling agreement was signed and sealed.
And if that’s the case, the Pac-12 seemingly has significant leverage.
The opposite is true in the exit fee lawsuit, where the Mountain West appears to have considerable leverage if the case goes to court.
As a result, the Hotline would push for the Mountain West to accept 25 percent of what’s owed in the poaching penalty case and 75 percent of what’s owed in the exit fee case, which seems to favor the Mountain West over the five departing schools.
Anything in those ranges would mean the loss of tens of millions of dollars — and the possibility the Mountain West won’t meet its financial obligations to UNLV and Air Force.
What can or will the government do to stop the NIL madness? — @CelestialMosh
The government can end the NIL madness completely. Whether it takes that step is another matter entirely.
There are two paths to salvation for college sports:
— A collective bargaining agreement (CBA) with the athletes, comparable to the NFL and NBA versions, would do the trick. But CBAs require agreement from a players’ union, and under current law, college athletes must be deemed employees in order to unionize. And the schools don’t want employment.
They really don’t want employment.
— The other option for stopping the NIL and transfer portal madness requires help from Congress, which can offer antitrust protection and codify NCAA rules to prevent attorneys from kneecapping every attempt to lend order to the situation.
Related Articles
CFB recruiting: UW lands in-state star, Oregon’s latest blow, USC stays hot Pac-12 finances: Legacy schools bled cash in final year of conference Trump’s (planned) commission on college sports: Will it save the NCAA or just add to the chaos? Pac-12, Mountain West agree to mediation over poaching penalty, exit fees College football Top 25 rankings: Clemson is No. 1, then Penn State, TexasThat’s the craziest aspect of the House settlement: The schools agreed to a revenue-sharing model — and spent bajillions on attorney fees — that might not hold up in court.
How does President Donald Trump’s commission on college athletics fit into all this?
It won’t have the authority to create the legal changes needed but could move Congress to take the necessary steps with antitrust protection and codifying NCAA rules.
What’s the status of Stanford’s athletic director search? Any names emerging? — @MrWarren_Bell
It’s early in the process. The university has named a search committee and hired Elevate to assist, as the Hotline explained in a recent column. We expect the process to conclude in June or July, but that’s merely an educated guess. It took the Cardinal a month to name an interim athletic director, COO Alden Mitchell, so anything’s possible.
To this point, the search firm and committee are engaging with Stanford constituents to determine a model: What type of leader is right for Stanford at this moment in time? What’s the skill set? Is Stanford experience (as a student, athlete or employee) a requirement? And how will the reporting structure work with football General Manager Andrew Luck?
Multiple sources have told the Hotline that Luck 1) doesn’t want the AD job and 2) is willing to report to the next AD, assuming he trusts him/her. That will help immensely with the candidate pool, especially if Stanford looks outside its alumni base.
The process is likely many weeks from establishing a list of finalists, but we would suggest you keep an eye on Kevin Blue, a former Stanford golfer who worked in the athletic department, then became the AD at UC Davis and is now the CEO of Canada Soccer.
Ultimately, Stanford must hire the person best suited to support football and position the Cardinal for the next chapter in college athletics.
In our view, that requires giving nominal authority to the search committee and allowing Luck, president Jonathan Levin, former provost Condoleezza Rice and mega-donor Jesse Rogers to make the decision.
The makeup of the committee works politically for the university but is poorly suited to select the right candidate.
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