With 30 games to go in total, plenty is still on the line in the Premier League. From the race for Europe to Mohamed Salah’s individual achievements, here are five things to keep an eye on.
Despite what either end of the Premier League table might have you believe, the season isn’t yet over.
Yes, the title race was officially wrapped up a fortnight ago and was in reality over weeks (or even months) earlier, and almost exactly the same can be said of the relegation battle. But not a single team other than Liverpool in first and Southampton in 20th are guaranteed to finish in their current position. You might even say there is plenty still to play for…
Okay, not even we can say that with a completely straight face, but there are 30 matches still to be played before the season is actually over, and even though most of them feel like dead rubbers, very few of them truly are.
So, what is yet to be decided? Here, we run through five things that are still to be worked out before the season comes to an end on 25 May.
Will Salah Break the Goal Involvements Record?
Mohamed Salah has had one of the best individual seasons by any player in Premier League history. With three games to go, he has 46 goal involvements (28 goals, 18 assists) in 35 appearances, having weeks ago broken the record for a 38-game season (44 by Thierry Henry in 2002-03 and Erling Haaland in 2022-23).
With two more goals or assists needed in his final three games of 2024-25, he looks set to break the all-time record for goal involvements in a Premier League season, currently jointly held by Andrew Cole in 1993-94 and Alan Shearer in 1994-95, with 47 each. What an achievement that would be.
However, given where Salah was a couple of months ago and how his output has slowed since, setting the record is far from a certainty. Following his pair of penalties against Southampton on 8 March, Salah moved to 44 goal involvements for the campaign after 29 games. Back then, he needed four more in his final nine games of 2024-25 to break the record.
But with just one goal and one assist in his last six games, Salah is stumbling rather than storming over the finish line in this particular race. It’s reasonable to ask now whether he’ll make it at all.
Will Southampton Become the Worst Top-Flight Team Ever?
Having already suffered the earliest relegation in the Premier League era when their route back to the Championship was confirmed with seven games of the season remaining in early April, Southampton now have just three games to avoid becoming the worst team the division has ever seen.
Derby County currently hold that unwanted title, having picked up a meagre 11 points in their abysmal 2007-08 campaign. That is actually the worst season by any team in top-flight history, too, when adjusting for three points for a win.
Southampton have already matched Derby’s points total, so only need one more from their final three games to avoid equalling the record in points terms.
However, three losses will mean they finish level on points with that infamous Rams side, and would also mean a hit to their goal difference. Southampton are currently on -57 in that column; Derby finished 2007-08 on -69.
It would take an especially poor run for Southampton to lose their final three games by a combined 12+ goals, but stranger things have happened and, well, they really aren’t very good.
What’s more, first they go to Manchester City, who need to win to keep up their chase for Champions League qualification and have scored four goals in three of their last five games against Southampton. Then, Saints face an Everton side who are much improved under David Moyes and will be keen to impress as it will be their last ever game at Goodison Park. Finally, on the last day of the season, Saints host Arsenal, who, by that point, could even need a win to beat City in the race for second place. There’s a slim chance, but it is a chance nonetheless.
Can Forest Avoid a Complete Collapse?
On 4 April, the Opta supercomputer gave Nottingham Forest a 91.5% chance of finishing in the top five. That chance is now down to just 44.5%.
Their campaign hasn’t exactly fallen apart given Forest are almost certain to be playing in Europe next season and still – if the supercomputer is to be believed – have an almost one-in-two chance of being in the Champions League. But the outlook now is far bleaker than it was only a few weeks ago.
Having dropped points in their last few games against the teams currently in seventh, ninth, 12th and 14th, it’s probably fair to call this a late-season wobble.
Whether it turns into a full-blown collapse remains to be seen, but their recent form doesn’t bode well at all. Two more points would guarantee Conference League football for next season at least, but that would likely feel a little underwhelming given how much promise they showed up to this last month.
Will the Worst Survivor Qualify for the Champions League?
One of Tottenham Hotspur or Manchester United will qualify for next season’s Champions League despite battling it out in the lower half of the Premier League table for much of the season, thanks to both reaching the Europa League final. There is a real possibility that one of them will finish in 17th position while also winning Europe’s second-biggest competition.
In all honesty, both teams are fortunate that the bottom three have been so terrible this season, so relegation has never been a realistic threat, but they will still be embarrassed by their awful league positions.
Based solely on league position, they won’t be the worst English team to have played in Europe, because there are a few examples of teams who did so while outside the Premier League.
Millwall played in the UEFA Cup in 2004-05 as a second-tier club after making it to the final of the FA Cup the previous season. Wigan Athletic (in 2013-14) and Birmingham City (in 2011-12), meanwhile, played in Europe after winning the FA Cup and League Cup respectively in seasons in which they were also relegated from the Premier League.
However, the Champions League is a different matter entirely, and no English team has qualified for it before while finishing outside the top six (Chelsea finished sixth and qualified by winning it in 2011-12). Next season will therefore see the worst English team ever to play in the Champions League; the question now is whether the worst team in the league (aside from the three relegated sides) ends up in Europe’s biggest competition.
Would either Spurs or United care about finishing 17th if they win the Europa League? Possibly not, but it would still be remarkable if it happens.
How Many Premier League Teams Will Be in Europe Next Season?
On a related note, there are still plenty of European spots up for grabs, and it isn’t entirely simple as to who gets them.
There will be six English teams in the Champions League next season as the top five qualify following the impressive performances of Premier League teams in Europe in 2024-25, while the Europa League winners also get a spot.
The team finishing sixth will be in the Europa League, as will Crystal Palace if they win the FA Cup, or the team in seventh place in the league should Man City beat the Eagles at Wembley in the final.
The next best-placed team in the league will be heading for the Conference League, assuming League Cup winners Newcastle United (currently in fourth place) qualify for Europe via their league position. That means the teams chasing eighth place – Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton and Fulham – will be supporting City in the FA Cup final next week. That showpiece event at Wembley comes before the end of the Premier League season, which should add some spice to the final day if City win.
See, we told you there was still plenty to play for.
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Five Major Issues Still to be Decided in the Premier League 2024-25 Opta Analyst.
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