The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder played an epic Game 1 two days ago with Denver finding a way to win the first matchup. If that’s an example of the rest of the series, then this is about to be an incredible second round matchup.
Can Denver do the impossible and win both road games to open the series?
Let’s talk basketball.
Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Starting Lineups
Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic
Oklahoma City: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein
Key Bench Players
Denver: Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, and Julian Strawther played in Game 1. DeAndre Jordan and Jalen Pickett did not play.
Oklahoma City: Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Jaylin Williams all played Game 1. Kenrich Williams did not.
Notable Injuries
Denver: DaRon Holmes II – OUT
Oklahoma City: Nikola Topic – OUT
Key for the Nuggets – Stay Resilient
Many (including me) thought the Nuggets would roll over in Game 1 following a long, arduous seven-game series vs the LA Clippers. That didn’t happen. The Nuggets fought, fought harder, and fought some more against OKC in Game 1, and when the door opened right at the end of the game, they capitalized in a big way.
Throughout the rest of the series, resilience has to be the name of the game, weathering the storm and staying attached against elite teams while taking advantage of any openings the Nuggets find. There might not be an opening in some games, and the Nuggets might lose those. When the opportunity presents itself though, the Nuggets must be ready. It might be Jokic who makes it happen. It might be Murray or Gordon. it might be Westbrook. Whoever it is, they must be ready when the moment arrives.
Important Matchup – Michael Porter Jr. vs Jalen Williams
The two starting small forwards really struggled in Game 1. Porter’s struggles were apparent with his shoulder injury, but he also made some critical rotation errors and mental mistakes born out from fatigue more than anything. Williams though, he had less of an excuse. The third-year forward was a first time All-Star this season, and expectations are high for him if the Thunder are going to go anywhere.
After a poor start, Porter didn’t take a single shot in the second half, and the Nuggets went with Westbrook down the stretch. That’s fine for a couple games, but what made the Nuggets dangerous last series was Porter finding a rhythm and helping Denver get through games while he spaced the floor. He had three points on four shots in Game 1 vs the Clippers, so there’s precedent for him turning things around.
It’s also fair to expect Williams to do the same. He rushed several shots in Game 1 as many young players do. How he responds in Game 2 will likely determine whether the Thunder strike back with enough force to even the series. OKC needs him to be great.
Series Adjustment – Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, or both?
The Thunder started the first half of Game 1 with Holmgren and Hartenstein on the floor together. They started the second half with Holmgren sliding to center and Alex Caruso replacing Hartenstein. Why did they do that? Well, the numbers say it’s obvious from OKC’s perspective.
With BOTH Holmgren and Hartenstein on the floor: Plus-Minus of -14 in 12 minutes With JUST Holmgren on the floor: Plus-Minus of 0 in 16 minutes With JUST Hartenstein on the floor: Plus-Minus of +16 in 17 minutes With NEITHER Holmgren NOR Hartenstein on the floor: Plus-Minus of -4 in 3 minutesIt seems pretty clear that one of the big for OKC should be out there at all times, but perhaps going forward, only one at most times. They will overlap on occasion, but if the Nuggets consistently force OKC to go small, there are areas Denver can take advantage in the rebounding and foul drawing departments.
Number of the Day – 112.5
112.5 is the Nuggets defensive rating in the minutes with Nikola Jokic on the floor so far in the playoffs. Against the Thunder in Game 1, the Nuggets were even better with a 107.4 defensive rating with Jokic out there.
Here’s how it looks game by game:
Clippers Game 1 – 106.9 (Win) Clippers Game 2 – 112.9 (Loss) Clippers Game 3 – 136.8 (Loss) Clippers Game 4 – 108.4 (Win) Clippers Game 5 – 105.5 (Win) Clippers Game 6 – 122.4 (Loss) Clippers Game 7 – 102.9 (Win) Thunder Game 1 – 107.4 (Win)In each of Denver’s wins, the Nuggets have had a defensive rating of under 110 with Jokic out there. In each of Denver’s losses, that number has exceeded 110. That seems to be the key factor so far for Denver.
Nugget who should have a good game: Russell Westbrook
I was impressed with the way Westbrook handled his role in Game 1. He wasn’t awesome in the first half, but the moment he entered the game in the second half, he changed the tempo by attacking the rim on cuts and drives consistently. His finishing was very good, and he closed the game for a good reason over Porter. His assist to Aaron Gordon for the game-winning three was a great example of playing under control with the pressure on and the clock winding down. A veteran move to find Gordon rather than attack the rim in that moment in a situation where a foul is unlikely to be called.
Westbrook may have to get used to closing in this series given OKC’s personnel. His ability to adapt to the moment and handle these situations in his own unique was has been impressive. The shots didn’t go down from the perimeter in Game 1. If he gets the same looks in Game 2, I think he will be ready for them.
Game 2 Preview: What to Watch for in Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Mile High Sports.
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