PHOENIX — Five days ago, Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen cruised through a daunting New York Mets lineup at Citi Field to earn a series-securing win, and now he’ll have to do it again on Tuesday.
Gallen will face nearly the exact same lineup in back-to-back starts, which is a rare quirk of Arizona’s schedule. The D-backs are set to play their fifth of six games against New York in a nine-day span. Gallen is the only D-backs pitcher who will start against the Mets twice in this stretch, as Corbin Burnes was skipped on Monday due to shoulder inflammation.
Arizona’s offense, meanwhile, will see David Peterson for a second time on Tuesday and Kodai Senga again on Wednesday.
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“I’m not really sure I’ve figured it out just yet and this is Year 7,” Gallen said.
“You always go back and forth. Do it exactly how you did it the time before if it’s successful? If it’s unsuccessful, do you still stick with whatever you’re feeling? I think ultimately it’s just you’re understanding what you’re trying to do to the hitter, what they’re trying to do to you and then just be a little more cognizant as the game’s going on whether their approach changes and if we have to counter.”
Both Gallen and manager Torey Lovullo agreed the scenario somewhat favors the hitter, similar to a batter seeing a pitcher for a third time during a game.
Jeff Zimmerman of FanGraphs published a study trying to tackle this question in 2021, looking at a sample size dating back to 2010. He found a quarter-point increase in ERA when a pitcher faces the same team between five and nine days apart.
“Just look at reports, whether they beat you in the last outing or you beat them, try to capitalize on their mistakes, try to prioritize the wins and see what you did right in those situations,” first baseman Josh Naylor said on facing the Mets’ pitchers again.
There is a tool clubs have recently adopted which Lovullo pointed out when examining this question.
The Trajekt machine mimics a pitcher’s delivery in the cages, and Diamondbacks players face the opposing pitcher before each game. It is not the real thing but could close that gap somewhat for the home teams that own the technology.
“I think once you get those reps and you get those sightlines, I think it turns into an advantage for the hitter,” Lovullo said. “ I will say that we have the Trajekt machine. Our guys are facing their starting pitcher right now. They’ll walk into the box very equipped.”
Gallen has done this several times before during the regular season. Of course, this phenomena happens all the time during the postseason, when stakes are different and games and managed accordingly.
He faced the Milwaukee Brewers in back-to-back starts last September.
The first time, he threw five innings with three earned runs and seven strikeouts. The second time, he allowed four earned runs in five innings with five strikeouts, although all four runs were scored during his final inning of work. He threw way more fastballs the second time out, tamping down on his curveball usage.
In 2023, he matched up with the Padres twice in a five-day span. He started with six shutout innings, striking out eight. He followed that gem with 6.1 innings, one earned run and three strikeouts.
Pitchers may also not have the same feel for certain pitches on a given day, which could change the gameplan.
“In baseball, the advantage tends to be with the pitcher,” Gallen said. “So I think if there is a time where that scale does slide closer to the hitter, it’s probably seeing a starter in back-to-back starts.”
Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks look to avoid series loss
Gallen threw six innings with one earned run eight strikeouts last week in a 4-2 win.
The Diamondbacks need a win on Tuesday to stave off a series loss and keep their hopes of winning the season set alive. The D-backs fell 5-4 on Monday.
Gallen has made eight career starts against the Mets with a 3.41 ERA. The D-backs, meanwhile, tagged Peterson with one run in five innings when they saw him seven days ago.
Gallen will take the mound Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. on 98.7 and the Arizona Sports app.
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