Ken Curtis, a water manager in southwestern Colorado, had two words to describe his district’s expected water supply this summer: “Pretty bad.”
“(We’re) looking at about 30%, maybe 35% supply,” said Curtis, who manages the Dolores Water Conservancy District.
Water managers across Colorado and the West are looking at this winter’s snowfall and weather forecasts to plan for summer water supplies, whether it’s using water for gardens, lawns, fisheries, crops or livestock. The conditions vary widely at the local level. In some parts of Colorado, like Denver, the winter provided enough snow to fill reservoirs and avoid extra restrictions. Other regions are tightening their belts.
Curtis hoped to at least give water users in his district half of their normal supply for the season, he said. The district sends irrigation water to farmers, the Ute Mountain Ute Indian Tribe, a nearby fishery and communities like Cortez and Dove Creek.
“It’s not going to happen,” he said.
This Fresh Water News story is a collaboration between The Colorado Sun and Water Education Colorado. It also appears at wateredco.org/fresh-water-news.
Across Colorado, the snowpack peaked lower in major river basins than the 30-year median, according to federal data from 1991 to 2020. The peaks were often earlier than usual, and the snowpack is melting quickly — several weeks earlier than the norm in some areas.
Water managers and climatologists are hoping for a rainy May and active summer thunderstorm season. In dry years, farmers and ranchers can be short on irrigation water in late summer. Reservoirs can have less extra water to carry over into the next year. Fish and aquatic ecosystems can suffer with less water in warmer rivers.
Water managers across the desert Southwest are in similar situations. Western Colorado is a key water source for the Colorado River Basin, where rivers and streams send water into an immense reservoir, Lake Powell.
This year, the forecasted flow of water into Lake Powell has dropped repeatedly, which has many water managers on edge. The Colorado River Basin provides water to 40 million people and the farms that grow most of the country’s winter vegetables.
In January, staff at the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center calculated about 5.5 million acre-feet of water would flow into Powell. One acre-foot roughly equals the annual water use of two to three households.
As of Monday, the forecast center expected 3.5 million acre-feet of water to reach the reservoir. That’s 55% of the annual average from 1991 to 2020, said Paul Miller, a meteorologist for the center.
“It’s highly unlikely that we’re going to see anything close to approaching average this year,” Miller said. “We have had very wet Mays in the past, but some of the longer-term climate models don’t indicate that we’re in store for anything.”
Cuts in the Southwest
In southwestern Colorado, Dolores Water Conservancy District draws water from the mountain snowmelt that flows westward into the Colorado River Basin each spring.
The region’s rivers and streams are likely to be lower than usual between now and July, when rivers typically swell to their peaks, according to Peter Goble, a climatologist for the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University.
“Beyond Durango and the southern half of the San Juans in general, it really doesn’t matter what indicator you look at, the news is not great this year,” Goble said.
The water district will likely face a financial blow to the tune of $250,000 because of the lackluster winter, Curtis said.
Water users pay the district to maintain and operate the federal water project, which includes McPhee Reservoir and the system of pipes and water valves that delivers water. They pay based, in part, on the amount of water they use, Curtis said.
The district cut costs in similar water-short years, like 2021 and 2022, by delaying maintenance projects. This year, they have to take care of the deferred maintenance. The only other areas to cut are expenses like vehicle maintenance and labor costs, Curtis said.
“We’re still deciding on how much we can cut,” he said.
Business as usual on the Front Range
While Curtis is working with a slim supply, big Front Range water managers are planning for the norm.
The snowpack was much closer to normal in the headwaters of the Colorado River itself. This region — near Fraser and Grand Lake — is also where tunnels divert water from the Colorado River Basin and send it east to faucets, treatment plants and irrigation systems for millions of Front Range residents.
Northeastern Colorado cities, farms and other water users are set to get 70% of their usual water supply from the Colorado River Basin, according to the Northern Water Conservancy District.
Denver Water is planning to rely on its water from the Western Slope this year, Nathan Elder, water resource engineer with Denver Water, said.
One of Denver Water’s other primary water sources, the South Platte River, had a smaller than usual snowpack that started melting April 6, three weeks early, he said.
“Our water conditions, they’re OK,” Elder said. “They’re not great, but they’re not terribly bad either.”
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12:03 PM MDT on May 5, 202512:33 PM MDT on May 5, 2025When the snowpack melts early, water providers often have to dip into the utility’s storage reservoirs early, Elder said. That can impact how much leftover water the utility has for the next summer.
This year, the reservoirs are starting the summer in good shape, he said. The utility is heading into the peak water use season with 3% extra water, and Elder expects to fill the reservoirs as much as possible this season.
That means no water-use restrictions in the forecast for Denver Water customers this summer. Watering rules started Thursday, so customers should check their sprinkler schedules and avoid watering between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m., Elder said.
Summer conditions aren’t final yet. Water providers are keeping their eyes on the skies as the seasons change.
“Do we see those monsoons later this summer? Is it going to be really hot and really dry?” Elder asked. “We plan for all those scenarios and prepare for all of them.”
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