Out of the playoffs for the fifth consecutive year, tied for the longest streak in more than four decades.
A third double-digit loss season in four years, something that hasn’t happened around these parts since the late 1960s.
And potentially only the third last-place AFC West finish in 21 years.
So what happened to the Broncos this year? Why are they 5-10 entering Sunday’s finale against Las Vegas at an empty Mile High? Why are they essentially in NFL’s No-Man’s Land — unwilling to tear it down and unable to compete with the league’s elite?
“We had an inordinate amount of injuries, which I think hurt our progress some,” coach Vic Fangio said. “We turned it over too much (32 times), which hurt our progress. We didn’t get takeaways (only 12), which hurt our progress.”
But …
“I think, individually, there’s been a lot of progress,” Fangio said. “We’ve gotten a lot of young players a lot of playing time that they’re going to grow from and learn from and I think that’s where the progress has been made.”
Entering Week 17, according to Sport Radar, the Broncos’ 5,902 snaps by first- and second-year players leads the NFL, nearly 1,000 more than Cincinnati (4,955). Against the Raiders, the Broncos could start as many as four rookies and five second-year players, equal parts by design and necessity.
The Broncos’ hope is that individual growth/acquired knowledge while absorbing body blows from some of the NFL’s best (eight games against the 14 teams currently in playoff position — 1-7 record), translates into 2021 team success.
Are the Broncos equipped to make a jump of 4-5 wins to challenge for the playoffs next year? Here is a position-by-position look:
Quarterback
Player Age How acquired 2021 cap hit Drew Lock 24 D2-19 $1,912,042 Brett Rypien 25 CFA-19 $850,000 Jeff Driskel 28 UFA-20 $3,250,000Analysis: Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur wasn’t subtle in his criticism of Lock throughout December, but his tune changed 180 degrees Thursday as he pointed out Lock’s youth (17 career starts) and potential. The inference is the Broncos are entering the offseason with Lock as their projected 2021 No. 1. … Lock’s 15 interceptions are tied for the NFL lead and he’s tied for 24th in touchdowns (14). … Lock has 53 explosive passes (at least 16-yard gain); his 18 turnovers have led to 55 points by the opponent. … Adding a more-experienced No. 2 is critical. Driskel didn’t pan out and the Broncos can create $1.75 million in space by cutting him.
Running back
Player Age How acquired 2021 cap hit Melvin Gordon 28 UFA-20 $9,000,000 Phillip Lindsay 27 CFA-18 Restricted FA Royce Freeman 25 D3-18 $1,219,255 LeVante Bellamy 24 CFA-20 $780,000Also: Jeremy Cox (FB) and Damarea Crockett.
Analysis: So much for that plan of Nos. 1-1A tailbacks with Gordon/Lindsay or Lindsay/Gordon. … Lindsay’s season never got out of the blocks (one 100-yard game) because of injuries and ineffectiveness. … Do the Broncos want Lindsay back? Does he want to be back? One of the top offseason subplots — we think Lindsay has played his last game in Denver. … Gordon is knocking on 1,000 yards (needs 107), has played 576 snaps, has eight of the Broncos’ 12 rushing touchdowns and caught 28 passes. … Maybe Bellamy can be to 2021 what the Broncos wanted Lindsay to be this past year, capable of rushing, catching and protecting.
Tight end
Player Age How acquired 2021 cap hit Noah Fant 23 D1-19 $3,433,834 Nick Vannett 28 UFA-20 $3,575,000 Albert Okwuegbunam 23 D4-20 $967,261 Troy Fumagalli 26 FA-20 Restricted free agent Andrew Beck 25 W-19 $850,000 Jake Butt 26 D5-17 Free agent Austin Fort 26 CFA-19 $781,168Also: Jordan Leggett.
Analysis: Fant has 12 explosive catches among his 58 receptions and has played 660 snaps. … Vannett (330 snaps) started slowly and was a healthy scratch in Week 3, but found a role during the season’s second half as the in-line blocker/protector. … Okwuegbunam should generate excitement — and maybe take targets away from Fant — if he returns to top form from a torn ACL. … The Broncos should enter the offseason confident this position doesn’t need to be addressed.
Receiver
Player Age How acquired 2021 cap hit Courtland Sutton 25 D2-18 $2,176,978 Jerry Jeudy 22 D1-20 $3,452,945 Tim Patrick 27 FA-17 Restricted FA KJ Hamler 22 D2-20 $1,622,076 DaeSean Hamilton 26 D4-18 $1,090,660 Diontae Spencer 29 W-19 ERFA Tyrie Cleveland 23 D7-20 $798,873Also: Kendall Hinton, Trinity Benson and Fred Brown.
Analysis: The Broncos should feel comfortable with Sutton, Jeudy, Patrick and Hamler as their top four entering camp. … Sutton was going to be a 100-catch candidate before his Week 2 torn ACL. … Jeudy has 47 catches and two touchdowns, but also 10 drops and he’ll be the biggest beneficiary from Sutton’s return. … Patrick (team-high six TD catches) deserves a second-round tender (projected $3.442 million). … Hamler won’t get as many touches as Jeudy, but could have a bigger impact next year.
Offensive line
Player Age How acquired 2021 cap hit Garett Bolles (LT) 29 D1-17 $5,000,000 Graham Glasgow (RG) 29 UFA-20 $12,000,000 Dalton Risner (LG) 26 D2-19 $1,947,895 Lloyd Cushenberry (C) 23 D3-20 $1,058,180 Ja’Wuan James (RT) 29 UFA-19 $13,000,000 Elijah Wilkinson (RT) 26 CFA-17 Free agent Calvin Anderson (LT) 25 FA-19 ERFA Demar Dotson (RT) 35 UFA-20 Free agent Netane Muti (G) 22 D6-20 $831,448 Austin Schlottmann (G/C) 25 CFA-18 ERFA Patrick Morris (C) 26 W-19 ERFAAlso: Darrin Paulo (OT), Quinn Bailey (OT) and Jon Halapio (G/C).
Analysis: The Broncos should enter the offseason knowing they have four starters locked in — Bolles, Risner, Cushenberry and Glasgow. … Bolles’ four-year contract kicks in and he’s had his best season (1/2 sack allowed, four penalties), Risner has played better in the second half (one pass protection disruption allowed), Cushenberry has played all 995 snaps (one penalty) and Glasgow (744 snaps) fought an early-season ankle injury and mid-season COVID-19 positive test. … The Broncos are essentially stuck with James, who opted out of 2020. They should re-sign Wilkinson to be a swing tackle. … The depth is solid with Anderson (backup LT) and Muti (backup G).
Defensive line
Player Age How acquired 2021 cap hit Shelby Harris (DE) 30 FA-17 Free agent Dre’Mont Jones (DE) 24 D3-19 $1,142,400 Mike Purcell (NT) 30 FA-19 $3,687,500 Jurrell Casey (DE) 31 T-20 $11,874,750 McTelvin Agim (NT) 23 D3-20 $1,030,396 DeMarcus Walker (DE) 26 D2-17 Free agent DeShawn Williams (DL) 28 FA-20 $850,000 Sylvester Williams (DL) 32 FA-20 Free agent Kyle Peko (DL) 28 FA-19 $990,000Also: Darius Kilgo (DL) and Deyon Sizer (DT).
Analysis: It could be (should be?) an offseason of change up front. … Harris is a free agent and this being his only kick at the high-money can, could simply sign with the highest bidder. … Walker hasn’t panned out and needs a fresh start. … The Broncos can create $11,874,750 in cap space by cutting Casey, who was limited to three games because of a triceps injury. … Purcell will be returning from a foot injury and backed up by Agim. … Jones has played 503 snaps and has 11 pass rush disruptions in the last six games.
Outside linebacker
Player Age How acquired 2021 cap hit Von Miller 32 D1-11 $22,125,000 Bradley Chubb 25 D1-18 $8,847,213 Jeremiah Attaochu 28 FA-19 Free agent Malik Reed 25 CFA-19 $855,000 Anthony Chickillo 28 FA-20 Free agent Derrek Tuszka 25 D7-20 $780,000Analysis: The Broncos can create $13.875 million in cap space by cutting Miller, who missed all of 2020 (ankle), but don’t count on that. Would they consider extending his contract to lower his cap number and ensure he’ll be a one-franchise player? Perhaps. … If Miller returns, the Broncos should still be in the draft market for an edge rusher to join him, Chubb, Reed and challenge Tuszka for the fourth spot in the rotation. … Reed and Chubb lead the team with 7 1/2 sacks.
Inside linebacker
Player Age How acquired 2021 cap hit Josey Jewell 26 D4-18 $1,098,496 Alexander Johnson 29 CFA-18 Restricted FA Austin Calitro 27 T-20 Restricted FA Joe Jones 27 FA-17 Free agent Justin Strnad 25 D5-20 $839,444 Josh Watson 25 CFA-19 ERFAAnalysis: Johnson leads the Broncos with 117 tackles, but does Fangio still envision him as an every-down player? Johnson’s coverage ability leaves much to be desired. In 1,004 snaps, he has 14 1/2 run “stuffs” and nine missed tackles. … Strnad was penciled in as a sub-package coverage linebacker until his training camp wrist injury. … Jewell emerged as a solid player with 102 tackles (12 run “stuffs”) and only four missed tackles in 922 snaps. … Fangio’s search for a version of Roquan Smith, whom he had in Chicago, will continue.
Cornerback
Player Age How acquired 2021 cap hit Bryce Callahan 29 UFA-19 $8,333,334 A.J. Bouye 30 T-20 $13,375,000 Michael Ojemudia 23 D3-20 $1,079,863 Essang Bassey 23 CFA-20 $786,666 Nate Hairston 27 FA-20 $990,000 Parnell Motley 23 FA-20 $780,000 Duke Dawson 25 T-19 $1,127,028 Kevin Toliver 25 FA-20 Restricted FAAnalysis: Eight cornerbacks played at least 54 snaps this year. … The biggest offseason need is cornerback — a no-doubt, shut-down player who allows Fangio to deploy Callahan inside/outside. … Broncos corners this year have combined for three interceptions and 24 pass break-ups. Not good enough. … Releasing Bouye, who will start 2021 on suspension, will create $13.375 million in cap space. A no brainer. … Ojemudia’s 14 tackles lead the team and his five penalties are tied for first. … Bassey has solidified the nickel spot until his torn ACL at Kansas City.
Safety
Player Age How acquired 2021 cap hit Justin Simmons 27 D3-16 Free agent Kareem Jackson 33 UFA-19 $12,882,353 Trey Marshall 25 CFA-18 ERFA Alijah Holder 25 CFA-19 $780,000 P.J. Locke 24 FA-19 $780,000 Will Parks (S/CB) 27 FA-20 Free agentAlso: Chris Cooper.
Analysis: Simmons has played all 1,019 snaps, is third with 93 tackles and first with four interceptions. The assumption is he’ll remain with the Broncos via a long-term deal or a second consecutive franchise tag, which would be around $12.8 million (120% of this year’s tag). … The Broncos aren’t in a cap crunch so they can keep Jackson at his scheduled number; he has 87 tackles in 1,015 snaps. … If Fangio and Co., don’t think Holder or Marshall is a dependable third safety, add it to the list of draft needs, particularly when the Broncos play dime (six defensive backs).
Special teams
Player Age How acquired 2021 cap hit Brandon McManus (K) 30 FA-14 $4,500,000 Sam Martin (P) 31 UFA-20 $2,783,333 Jacob Bobenmoyer (LS) 24 FA-20 $780,000Also: Taylor Russolino (K).
Analysis: McManus signed a contract extension in September and followed by making 25-of-28 field goals and 22-of-25 point-after attempts in 14 games. … Martin was a solid signing in free agency, able to land punts inside the 15-yard line and directional kick when needed. Overall, he has a 41.7-yard average. … Spencer has return averages of 18.9 (kickoffs) and 15.8 (punts) yards. … The coverage units, which have allowed multiple big plays, need to be addressed.
(Notes: Ages as of Sept. 1, 2021. UFA — unrestricted free agent. RFA — restricted free agent. ERFA — exclusive rights free agent.)
OFFSEASON PRIMER
Key free agents
Unrestricted: S Justin Simmons, DE Shelby Harris and RT Elijah Wilkinson.
Restricted: RB Phillip Lindsay, WR Tim Patrick and ILB Alexander Johnson.
Positional needs
1. Cornerback. Only three of the Broncos’ eight interceptions were by cornerbacks. They need to draft one in the first round to join Bryce Callahan, Essang Bassey and Michael Ojemudia.
2. Defensive end. If Shelby Harris, Jurrell Casey and DeMarcus Walker aren’t brought back, the Broncos need to add two ends.
3. Backup quarterback. If the Broncos are committed to Drew Lock being the starter entering camp, adding an experienced No. 2 to provide guidance/push Lock is a priority.
4. Cover inside linebacker. This spot could go to Justin Strnad (out of all of this year), but if Vic Fangio wants an every-down option, a second-round pick should be used for this position.
5. Running back. If the Broncos part with Phillip Lindsay, they should use a Day 3 draft pick (rounds 4-7) on a back, particularly because Melvin Gordon is facing a three-game suspension.
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